House prices fell by 0.5% in July - Nationwide

Dirk_Rambo

Doctor_Gloom wrote: »

A 0.5% fall is merely the appetiser for the really big falls in house prices we'll see in the latter part of the year.

good point doctor. i dont think many will disaggree with you on that one

Blacklight

Dirk_Rambo wrote: »

good point doctor. i dont think many will disaggree with you on that one

Based on the Halifax figure of +0.6% I would Carol.

Exocet

Funny how July seems a very long time ago now. At least the ancient history of Land Registry figures will be comforting for a couple more months yet. You never know... maybe they won't crash again after all. Chin up.

Dirk_Rambo

Blacklight wrote: »

Based on the Halifax figure of +0.6% I would Carol.

it seams your in a minorty of 1 in that view. but good on you all the same

IveSeenTheLight

Dirk_Rambo wrote: »

it seams your in a minorty of 1 in that view. but good on you all the same

He's not in a minority of 1
Wasn;t there a report that showed only 25% reported price drops.
It would seem that there is a minotity there

Dirk_Rambo

DaddyBear wrote: »

The YOY figure plunged by 2.1%. Maybe my prediction of stagnation was too optimistic. YOY to be negative by December? Quite possibly. One thing is for sure, we won't be seeing much of Hamish McRamper for the next 6 months.

very good point daddy

When_is_the_reset?

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

The winter falls of last year neve materialised.
On saying that, it appears we are nicely following the long term trend from Nationwide

This is a genuine question - from an ignorant one....

The trend must only be the trend because of the bubble in property prices - so if we didn't have the massive increases the trend would be lower.

So, it is self-fulfilling?

If prices are lower then we would still be following the trend because the trend would be on less of a gradient?

If not, then who decides this is the trend and what was the trend for the 50 years before this chart?

Blacklight

When_is_the_reset? wrote: »

This is a genuine question - from an ignorant one....

The trend must only be the trend because of the bubble in property prices - so if we didn't have the massive increases the trend would be lower.

So, it is self-fulfilling?

If prices are lower then we would still be following the trend because the trend would be on less of a gradient?

If not, then who decides this is the trend and what was the trend for the 50 years before this chart?

The data doesn't go back that far to give an accurate picture 50 years in the past. However the peak in the 80's (the first lump on that graph) is exactly the same shape as the second when you take the 10 year time spans in isolation:



Therefore the trend line was the same then as it is now.

When_is_the_reset?

Blacklight wrote: »

The data doesn't go back that far to give an accurate picture 50 years in the past. However the peak in the 80's (the first lump on that graph) is exactly the same shape as the second when you take the 10 year time spans in isolation:



Therefore the trend line was the same then as it is now.

Thanks for that - but it seems on the first graph, when the scales match, they are not the same. The second peak is much more pronounced.

Is it generally accepted that you can change the scale so they match?

If it is then we can all argue whatever we like.

Blacklight

When_is_the_reset? wrote: »

Thanks for that - but it seems on the first graph, when the scales match, they are not the same. The second peak is much more pronounced.

Is it generally accepted that you can change the scale so they match?

If it is then we can all argue whatever we like.

Not really.

60/20 = 3
180/60 = 3