House prices just keep on rising

Thefunkygibbons

If something cannot continue forever, then one day it will end

towseriv

Should we also note that to say the "average house" costs X, is like saying that the "average person" earns XX thousands of pounds. the top end of the average will always distort the low end

RHemmings

towseriv wrote:

Should we also note that to say the "average house" costs X, is like saying that the "average person" earns XX thousands of pounds. the top end of the average will always distort the low end

The median is a much better statistic for talking about house prices and affordability. Anyone got median figures? Quartiles?

GW65

dougk wrote:

Maybe because there is not enough houses for the current 60m people let alone the extras! (also its up to you if you believe ther is only 100-200k extra each year - add those not "legally" here and you may well be doubling that figure)

I'd be surprised if immigration makes a huge difference to the number of buyers. A sizeable proportion (maybe the majority) of the recent immigrants from Eastern Europe will be short-term and in lowish-paid jobs (have you noticed how many Eastern Europeans there are working in your local fast-food joint and on your local building site?). They're often over here to earn some money for a few years, minimising their outgoings, and then head home with a wad of cash to buy a house in the own country. These people will not be buying houses. They're just being very smart and doing what a much smaller number of them have done in the past.

For the current boom to continue requires people who can afford the (relatively) high prices for low-end properties which then ripples up through the chain. If people can no longer afford low-end properties the market will stall, people drop their prices in order to sell, the marker over-corrects....you get the picture.

The market was initially fueled by a combination of first-time buyers and BTL investors. As evidenced by the recent spate of high-income-multiple mortgage deals, first-time buyers have been struggling for a while, but the short-fall has been made up by lemmings jumping into BTL far too late in the day. It won't take much to make the lemmings jittery and try to bail out, which will really deflate the bubble.

Now, if only we knew WHEN it would happen....

goldbyron

I think that the market will continue to rise steadily with a lower increase during the winter months but picking up in spring. I feel that demand is constantly larger than supply. I feel that the thread regarding immigration needs correction. In certain parts of the country there has been a massive increase however I feel this is supplying the BTL market more than anything (which is worse!). I do think properties in urban areas and properties for FTB will see the biggest increases. I can understand villages and larger properties taking longer to receive any benefits.

RHemmings

goldbyron wrote:

I think that the market will continue to rise steadily with a lower increase during the winter months but picking up in spring. I feel that demand is constantly larger than supply. I feel that the thread regarding immigration needs correction. In certain parts of the country there has been a massive increase however I feel this is supplying the BTL market more than anything (which is worse!). I do think properties in urban areas and properties for FTB will see the biggest increases. I can understand villages and larger properties taking longer to receive any benefits.

But if people can't afford property prices now, see Martin this morning talking about people needing a £50,000 salary or £80,000 combined salary to afford anything, then how will they afford even more expensive properties? And if people can't afford to buy them, how will prices go up?

dougk_2

dunstonh wrote:

In our area there has barely been a price increase in the last 3 years

In Norwich and surrounding area (my family live there) prices have increased at least 25-30% in last three years. Properties that were circa £45k in 1999 are now around about £140k (and selling FAST).

Why you may ask well, it now considered commutable to London, its a growing city, Salaries have increased and generally people like the area.

CB1979_2

RHemmings wrote:

But if people can't afford property prices now, see Martin this morning talking about people needing a £50,000 salary or £80,000 combined salary to afford anything, then how will they afford even more expensive properties? And if people can't afford to buy them, how will prices go up?

another question? lol

anyway as long as there are banks offering higher multiples/longer term mortgages and as long as companies/Housing Associations offering different terms to "help" the FTB then prices will continue to rise.

the first SO I saw was 50%, as i said the other day i saw a girl buy 10% and she thought it was a good deal!

no matter what people are hoping for, i can see this keep on happening until these companies exhaust all possibilities.

but of course just my little humble opinion

dougk_2

The "migrant workers" need somewhere to live, if they don't buy they rent and someone needs to buy the houses that are rented out in the first place. BTL's are only working to the same supply and demand. Demand of rented property is also added to by people "selling up" and waiting for a house price correction. Does anyone have any figures on the number of vacant rented properties?

dougk_2

CB1979 wrote:

another question? lol

anyway as long as there are banks offering higher multiples/longer term mortgages and as long as companies/Housing Associations offering different terms to "help" the FTB then prices will continue to rise.

the first SO I saw was 50%, as i said the other day i saw a girl buy 10% and she thought it was a good deal!

no matter what people are hoping for, i can see this keep on happening until these companies exhaust all possibilities.

but of course just my little humble opinion

You have been able to buy a 25% stake for many years - never heard of 10% though!