House prices just keep on rising

RHemmings

As readers might guess from my postings, I think that property is unsustainably overvalued. Unfortunately this doesn't mean that it starts going down in price immediately. We have to wait until they run out of fools. Which could take quite a long time. :mad:

Gorgeous_George

Oh how I love these threads!

I predict house prices will fall over the next 6 months. The usual crowd will hale (or is it hail) the start of the crash.

After 6 months of winter price falls, the market will recover and start to rise again.

Modest interest rate rises will not counterbalance the effect of immigration - so an upwards pressure will remain. Large interest rate rises are just not going to happen - too painful for the Government.

I'd like to see prices fall by 40-50% but it isn't gonna happen.



GG

BobProperty

Gorgeous_George wrote:

Oh how I love these threads!

Me too...

Gorgeous_George wrote:

..... the market will recover and start to rise again....

Funded by a new round of ARM and 7-9 x income mortgages presumably?

Gorgeous_George wrote:

Modest interest rate rises will not counterbalance the effect of immigration.....

What immigration? I see no evidence of it round here and I fail to see how a net inflow of 100,000 - 200,000 people will have such a massive effect on a housing market that current houses 60m people.

Gorgeous_George wrote:

..... Large interest rate rises are just not going to happen - too painful for the Government.....

BOE set interest rates, influenced by the rest of the world economy, where interest rates are going up and up. Governments will always find ways of making it not "painful" for themselves, it's joe public that needs to worry.

dougk_2

BobProperty wrote:

Me too...
What immigration? I see no evidence of it round here and I fail to see how a net inflow of 100,000 - 200,000 people will have such a massive effect on a housing market that current houses 60m people.

Maybe because there is not enough houses for the current 60m people let alone the extras! (also its up to you if you believe ther is only 100-200k extra each year - add those not "legally" here and you may well be doubling that figure)

Its in the Governments interest to keep property prices high so they gain maximum income - stamp duty, council tax (new builds due to demand), insurance premium tax (as prices of houses rise so do the insurkance premiums) etc etc.

dunstonh

All regions of the UK are experiencing annual house price growth above the level of the retail price index.

In our area there has barely been a price increase in the last 3 years

RHemmings

dunstonh wrote:

In our area there has barely been a price increase in the last 3 years

Which part of Norfolk? I'd like to look at the Land Registry figures.

dunstonh

I live in North Suffolk. You can look at any the towns/villages around the Lowestoft/Beccles area.

We looked at putting our house on the market 3 years ago but decided against it. 3 years on and the prices of similar houses are virtually the same as they were then. Thanks to a large number of new build houses, it is quite easy to see the same house style popping up every week in the papers and some of those appear to have dropped in values.

A 5 bedroom, 3 floor detached would sell for around £220,000 3 years ago but you see them in the local paper now for £195,000.

dunstonh

If you cannot afford to buy your first home look to an area of the Uk where you can afford to buy your first home.

Whilst it is easy to say and is a reality. It also isnt fair. We have parts of North Norfolk where locals cannot live anymore and the villages have more second/holiday homes than primary residences. Its killing off the local economy as the villages are dead most of the time. That further compounds the problem.

RHemmings

bilbobobbi wrote:

What are house prices doing and does it matter anyway!

You can find out what house prices are doing in your area by keeping an eye on prices in estate agents windows. An average increase of 10% per year over a long period of time is probable. Short term (less than 18months) do not really make much differecne provided you buy and stay in the property for the longer term.

Those seeking a quick profit are the losers in a steady market.

If you cannot afford to buy your first home look to an area of the Uk where you can afford to buy your first home.

Are you predicting 10% a year property price rises? Given that current price levels are now being revealed as simply unaffordable, and affordability is likely to fall with increases in interest rates and credit tightening when banks react to increasing levels of bad debt, how do you think they can keep on going up 10% a year. Even "on average"?

Doozergirl

bilbobobbi wrote:

Those seeking a quick profit are the losers in a steady market.

Steady market suits me just fine, thanks