House gains to be wiped out !

nearlynew

chucky wrote: »

the graph was created in 2006 - of course it matches what happens in a bubble if it already created to represent previous bubbles.

it hasn't matched the current housing cycle at all - the last 18 months anyway.

Not that I attact much importance to that graph/chart but I'd say the "last 18 months" have been spot on.


18 months ago (your beloved bottom of feb 09) was the "bull trap"

And we have just passed "return to normal"

chucky

nearlynew wrote: »

Not that I attact much importance to that graph/chart but I'd say the "last 18 months" have been spot on.


18 months ago (your beloved bottom of feb 09) was the "bull trap"

And we have just passed "return to normal"

so any rises from now will blow your theory out of the window and your 'beloved bottom' will be out of shape?

nearlynew

chucky wrote: »

so any rises from now will blow your theory out of the window and your 'beloved bottom' will be out of shape?

Yeah.

Something like that.

Graham_Devon

Hehehe, I love that graph.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Hehehe, I love that graph.

shame you're not bright enough to understand it

Malcolm.

Exocet wrote: »

I think the point is - not what inflation or interest rates or supply and demand or all that stuff means - its the psychology of bubble investing.

No-one categorically knows when we're in a bubble and when we're not, if they did they'd own a great big house in Aberdeen. I hear it's nice up there.

Blacklight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Hehehe, I love that graph.

The bottom of the 'Despair' curve is equal to an index of 45 based on Nationwide's seasonally adjusted index from 1991 onwards (1993=100).

In other words; you expect the average house price to fall from £170k to £22k within the next year.

A fall of 87%.

I think you can stop trying now, you've earned the title of 'Mr Muddle'.

chucky

Blacklight wrote: »

I think you can stop trying now, you've earned the title of 'Mr Muddle'.

i don't know why you bothered Blacklight - he and a few others won't understand it.

the more intelligent fans of this graph stopped using it over a year ago. it's only the ones that don't understand it are the ones using it.

Blacklight

Just to illustrate a point, here's what happened after the 1990's peak and subsequent crash:




Good luck with your 87% discount Graham.

gubdlog

brit1234 wrote: »

Asking prices on Right move don't include price drops on existing properties. It only includes new property of that month and can mask the true picture of all asking prices on average falling far more than this distorted figure.

Prices are crashing now and that is a good thing.

Prices are falling for the last 3 months, will this continue?