House gains to be wiped out !

Really2

It may have been a bear trap on this site this time round (the people who purchased in the last 12 months were mainly bearish before).

phil_b_2

A 'bulltrap' seems like a fairly bogus concept to me, at least when it comes to houses it does. Most people buy a house because they want one, to live in it and get on. If the value drops a bit after that I dont see how they have become a trapped bull.

I dont think anyone is buying property in a hope to make a fortune anymore, havnt done for ages now.

RenovationMan

phil_b wrote: »

A 'bulltrap' seems like a fairly bogus concept to me, at least when it comes to houses it does. Most people buy a house because they want one, to live in it and get on. If the value drops a bit after that I dont see how they have become a trapped bull.

I dont think anyone is buying property in a hope to make a fortune anymore, havnt done for ages now.

This what I was thinking. I can't imagine that there are too many people buying BTL properties anymore so I couldnt figure out who this thread was aimed at. Can you still even get BTL mortgages?

nollag2006

twit1234 wrote: »

Prices are crashing now and that is a good thing.

Not round your way they are not. The annual HPI rate in Hounslow escalated from 3% in the year to March 31st, to 11% in the year to June 30th according to the latest Nationwide report:
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q2_2010.pdf


:eek::eek::eek:


Not very bright, are you ?

Graham_Devon

PasturesNew wrote: »

A bull trap is in ANY market, where prices/values go up/down .... and when prices APPEAR to be on the big rise again ... tempting bulls into buying up whatever it is they think will make their fortune. (ie. houses/now). At the end of a bull trap, the trend reverses and massive falls occur, so that anybody who just bought (when they thought prices were about to rise) are now finding the value of what they bought is less than they paid ... and still falling.

There is a bulltrap in house prices. They went up a lot, they came down ... then they started going up, so bulls rushed in to buy "before they missed the boat" and "because it'd make them rich", so now the bulltrap's finished... it's trapped all the bulls with over-priced houses ... that they could buy cheaper next year, the year after ... etc.

It's not just a term for the stockmarket.

For a graphical representation:

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

For a graphical representation

the curious thing about those that still use the graph is that they don't realise that the 'Return to Mean" line is now wrong...

the more inteligent fans of this graph stopped using it just over a year ago once they realised...

Exocet

chucky wrote: »

the curious thing about those that still use the graph is that they don't realise that the 'Return to Mean" line is now wrong...

the more inteligent fans of this graph stopped using it just over a year ago once they realised...

It will be interesting to see how that graph pans out over the next few years. It looks as though we are at the top of the "Return to Normal" bit at the moment, having had a little recovery over the last eighteen months or so (in some areas).

Graham_Devon

Exocet wrote: »

It will be interesting to see how that graph pans out over the next few years. It looks as though we are at the top of the "Return to Normal" bit at the moment, having had a little recovery over the last eighteen months or so (in some areas).

We can't be at the return to normal...we'd have had to have had a fall in prices, then an increase, then a further prolonged fall, then increase.

So far, we have only had the fall, then increases to make up around half of the fall. At the present time, we are seeing slight falls again.

As for the graph, / tracing / chart / doodle / sketch...I only posted it cus I had an excuse to.

Exocet

Graham_Devon wrote: »

We can't be at the return to normal...we'd have had to have had a fall in prices, then an increase, then a further prolonged fall, then increase.

I thought the peak would be the New Paradigm bit? Then we had some drops. Then we had a rise. Now it looks like they might start falling again?

I am less interested in the actual figures involved, but the pattern it shows of any bubble - houses yes, but gold, dot com, etc.

Not good form for two bears to be arguing about 'the graph' though.

System

Blimey you guys don't half get some mileage out of one months rightmove figures.