House gains to be wiped out !

Euphoria1z

RenovationMan wrote: »

This what I was thinking. I can't imagine that there are too many people buying BTL properties anymore so I couldnt figure out who this thread was aimed at. Can you still even get BTL mortgages?

you certainly can. Tho theres alot less offering this now compared to before the credit crunch. And the ones that are offering, are wanting huge deposits like 40% (tho i believe one lender will offer 80% LTV) but arrangement fees are shockingly high like 3% of the loan amount.

Graham_Devon

Exocet wrote: »

I thought the peak would be the New Paradigm bit? Then we had some drops. Then we had a rise. Now it looks like they might start falling again?

I am less interested in the actual figures involved, but the pattern it shows of any bubble - houses yes, but gold, dot com, etc.

Not good form for two bears to be arguing about 'the graph' though.

Yer, so "return to normal", if the graph did actually play out, would be after some serious falls, which we havenm't seen yet to have reached the end.

Ahhh, I get what you mean with the "top of the return to normal" bit now! Don't mind me Mistook it for return to mean.

BTW, we can't actually be arguing about a graph, because it's not a graph....been SO many arguments about that erm, "image" on here before and whether it is or isn't a graph :p

Graham_Devon

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Blimey you guys don't half get some mileage out of one months rightmove figures.

Get even more mileage out of 2 months of falls on the Halifax index, along with slowing on the nationwide index, and falls on the rightmove asking price index

StevieJ

Exocet wrote: »

I thought the peak would be the New Paradigm bit? Then we had some drops. Then we had a rise. Now it looks like they might start falling again?

I am less interested in the actual figures involved, but the pattern it shows of any bubble - houses yes, but gold, dot com, etc.

Not good form for two bears to be arguing about 'the graph' though.

I know what you meant now you know what others mean.

Really2

Exocet wrote: »

I thought the peak would be the New Paradigm bit? Then we had some drops. Then we had a rise. Now it looks like they might start falling again?

I am less interested in the actual figures involved, but the pattern it shows of any bubble - houses yes, but gold, dot com, etc.

Not good form for two bears to be arguing about 'the graph' though.

I see what you say and have debated it before. If you have 2004/5 as New Paradigm and 2007 as back to normal it fits the illustration.

Basically if you use the last housing bubble, problem is that does not fit some peoples views and they want to argue it is from the 70's to now:)

I class that as three bubbles.

nearlynew

RenovationMan wrote: »

....... Can you still even get BTL mortgages?

You can.

But you need one of those old fashioned deposit things.
You know, when you have to have some, like, money.

Most BTL "investors" of recent years only managed to buy because they were able to "release equity" from other properties.

Without house price inflation they wouldn't have been able to apply their keen business acumen to the housing market.

And the lack of credit is why all the HPI cheerleaders on here are not buying now.

chucky

Really2 wrote: »

I see what you say and have debated it before. If you have 2004/5 as New Paradigm and 2007 as back to normal it fits the illustration.

Basically if you use the last housing bubble, problem is that does not fit some peoples views and they want to argue it is from the 70's to now:)

I class that as three bubbles.

behave yourself - there's a poor chubby confused lad in Devon with his head spinning at the moment :j

chucky

Exocet wrote: »

It will be interesting to see how that graph pans out over the next few years. It looks as though we are at the top of the "Return to Normal" bit at the moment, having had a little recovery over the last eighteen months or so (in some areas).

that's fine but the Return to Mean is wrong

Exocet

chucky wrote: »

that's fine but the Return to Mean is wrong

Maybe. But the 'graph' or 'drawing' is just a representation of bubble investing and how it pans out. I think I saw one where someone superimposed various bubbles (shares, tulips, etc) on it, and it was pretty close to what happens.

I think the point is - not what inflation or interest rates or supply and demand or all that stuff means - its the psychology of bubble investing.

chucky

Exocet wrote: »

Maybe. But the 'graph' or 'drawing' is just a representation of bubble investing and how it pans out. I think I saw one where someone superimposed various bubbles (shares, tulips, etc) on it, and it was pretty close to what happens.

I think the point is - not what inflation or interest rates or supply and demand or all that stuff means - its the psychology of bubble investing.

the graph was created in 2006 - of course it matches what happens in a bubble if it already created to represent previous bubbles.

it hasn't matched the current housing cycle at all - the last 18 months anyway.