It can make a lot of sense to buy now.

Housebear51

Really2 wrote: »

Problem is who knows where the bottom is, even if you find it, it will only be confirmed 3 months after your offer (time it takes for sale to go through).
It may have already have been missed, it could of been Feb 2009, or someone getting a massive discount in 2008.;)

You have to find the bottom, (or below preferably) by the time the bottom has been confirmed you have missed it.

You are talking as if the crisis will be over soon and all the problems will go away.

The reality is however many years of pain, I dont like it but thats just the way it is.

There will be no rush at the bottom, recovery is just a dream now.

the_flying_pig

Conrad wrote: »

NEW YEARSDAY 2013;

Leaner fitter UK business is rising leaps and bounds having spent the last 5 years repaying debt and putting on cash and also benefiting from a leaner regulatory culture.
Never before has Business been so cash rich.

Dividends have surged on the back of the slash and burn cost reduction undertaken over the last 5 years and further underpinned by reduced business borrowing.

UK households are similarly well placed having taken the period of low rates to reduce debt.

A resurgent private sector has blossomed and taken up the slack left by bloated state.

House price inflation has taken analysists by surprise fueld by an extended period of low rates and rising demand for rental property as less people are able to access the mortgage market.

Several more nations are well into the 'developing' phase, including Morocco, Vietnam and Botswana.

you're clearly insane... not because of the fact that this is your prediction, everyone has their own opinion naturally, but rather because you took the time to type it out in the belief that it might convince someone...

Really2

Housebear51 wrote: »

You are talking as if the crisis will be over soon and all the problems will go away.

The reality is however many years of pain, I dont like it but thats just the way it is.

There will be no rush at the bottom, recovery is just a dream now.

Maybe but look at the last crash you would think the bottom was Q1 1996 looking at real prices (nationwide graph)

The nominal price then was £51,367

Would you be surprised that you could have purchased in Q4 1992 for £50,168.

So you would have saved over 3.5 years rent and still received the wage inflation for those 3.5 years and still paid 2% less for your house.

The moral of the tail.

Look out for fake bottoms.

arby

mitchaa wrote: »

But yet house prices are 10% more expensive now than they were this time last year so why didn't you buy this time last year?

Where have you been living the last 3yrs? how much have you forked out in rent over that time? At least that rent could have been downpaying your mortgage especially had you bought this time last year;)

I can't believe there are still some people waiting for major price falls.

It just isn't going to happen.

i've been paying less in rent than the landlady is paying on her interest-only mortgage. So again, I've been saving money over having a mortgage and I certainly wouldn't have been paying anything down on it at the rate I'm paying currently. It's not a clear-cut case either way, that's my whole point. There's no sure-fire way to make money from property. For me, I'm in a much better situation by waiting, while for others it could have been better to buy a few years ago.

lewisa

chucky wrote: »

to be pedantic and taking it further than the ticket price of property - compare buying now on a 3.99% 5 year fix to buying in 5 years time on 6%.

buying now saves you 2% on interest repayments which becomes 10% saving over that 5 year period plus any capital repayments - so about 14% total saving i think.

if you expect prices to drop more than 10% and rates not to go up - now is not the time to buy.

if you expect prices to drop and rates to go up - you have a tough decision to make.

if you expect prices to stay the same and rates to go up - now is the time to buy.

i've generalised a bit but i hope you udnerstand what i'm trying to say.

I agree with you, but shouldnt you be including the cost of renting for 5 years as well in your equation?

When_is_the_reset?

Really2 wrote: »

Look out for fake bottoms.

Thanks, I will.

I have never heard of them before but I suppose surgery has come on leaps and bounds.

Really2

When_is_the_reset? wrote: »

Thanks, I will.

I have never heard of them before but I suppose surgery has come on leaps and bounds.

Go to blackpool for a weekend.

chucky

lewisa wrote: »

I agree with you, but shouldnt you be including the cost of renting for 5 years as well in your equation?

yes of course

i'd also add the interest received on the savings deposit - not the best at the moment.

you would also need to factor in the period at the end of the mortgage when you're living mortgage free instead of having waited 5 years to buy.

chucknorris

arby wrote: »

i've been paying less in rent than the landlady is paying on her interest-only mortgage. So again, I've been saving money over having a mortgage and I certainly wouldn't have been paying anything down on it at the rate I'm paying currently. It's not a clear-cut case either way, that's my whole point. There's no sure-fire way to make money from property. For me, I'm in a much better situation by waiting, while for others it could have been better to buy a few years ago.

Are you sure? I am only paying only 1.18% on my mortgages at the moment, that would equate to under £250 a month payments on a 250k mortgage.

mitchaa

arby wrote: »

There's no sure-fire way to make money from property. For me, I'm in a much better situation by waiting, while for others it could have been better to buy a few years ago.

The golden goose has laid it's last egg and the scale of the housing boom we experienced 99-07 will never ever happen again in our lifetimes in my opinion. Those fortunate to have property for years prior to 2007 'won the lottery' in terms of making substantial 'profits' through property.

Someone who bought a house for say £100k in 99 may well have sold their house for £600k 10yrs later in 2009. I bought my house for a smidgen under £400k in 2009, there's no way It will ever be worth £2.4m in 2019:rotfl:I suspect even when I keel over in old age around 60yrs from now, it will still be nowhere near worth £2.4m.

Like I said, the golden goose has already lain its last egg. I just wish I had listened to my folks and bought property in 99/00, rather than pis*ing my money up against the wall:D