It can make a lot of sense to buy now.

IveSeenTheLight

arby wrote: »

I bought a pack of polos when i was a kid for 11p. Now look at the price!!! I should stock up on them as in 10 years they'll be sold for at least a quid! that's a 1000% increase in 30 years!! You might think this is a joke statement, but it applies almost directly to what Conrad is stating. Remove inflation from the scenario and things don't look as pretty.

That's the point though, the debt doesn;t rise with inflation

Conrad

Prices will not be lower in 1 years time - that's my prediction. Before you dismiss it - I made a thread ealy last year predicting prices would be higher by Autumn 2009 anmd this turned out correct.

Of course I'm just an idiot who had a good hunch, but I will be the same idiot again. Watch out for prices by next summer -they will not be any lower than now.

This is a good time to buy and one day you will realise this, I guarantee it.

IveSeenTheLight

arby wrote: »

that's fine, you said 'may' inferring it's not a certainty, while the numpty at the top of the thread says it's a sure-fire guaranteed way to make money. there's a massive difference!

Watch out, nearly new will be on at you saying you should have said implying instead of inferring

Conrad

When unemployment was circa 3m in the early nineties, looking back, that was the time to have bought a property.

IveSeenTheLight

arby wrote: »

do you really believe that? i wonder how some people get through life with such limited understanding. I could have bought 3 years ago. I didn't. The exact same house is now £40,000 cheaper while I've increased my deposit by £40,000. Tell me why 3 years ago was a good time to buy for me?

Meanwhile in other areas, prices did not fall and have stagnated over those 3 years.
the result is that those that did buy three years ago are three years into their morgage.
With mortgage rates so low, they have a fantastic opportunity to reduce their amortization period.

paul1964_2

Conrad wrote: »

Trust me 100%, no crash is on the cards.

I would never trust anyone who is 100% certain about a market.

Conrad

NEW YEARSDAY 2013;

Leaner fitter UK business is rising leaps and bounds having spent the last 5 years repaying debt and putting on cash and also benefiting from a leaner regulatory culture.
Never before has Business been so cash rich.

Dividends have surged on the back of the slash and burn cost reduction undertaken over the last 5 years and further underpinned by reduced business borrowing.

UK households are similarly well placed having taken the period of low rates to reduce debt.

A resurgent private sector has blossomed and taken up the slack left by bloated state.

House price inflation has taken analysists by surprise fueld by an extended period of low rates and rising demand for rental property as less people are able to access the mortgage market.

Several more nations are well into the 'developing' phase, including Morocco, Vietnam and Botswana.

Housebear51

Conrad wrote: »

I was pondering some applications I'm currently dealing with. At the same time I was thinking back to people I know who bought in past recessions, particulary in 1973, 1978 and 1991.

Current case - apllicants have sold thier home for £500k, having paid £140k in sept 1999.
It's a semi in Surrey.
They are buying a detached wreck for £615k on a huge plot.
He will do it up himslef in evenings (did this with last home) and it could easily be worth £1m in todays market, let alone 5 or 15 years time.

The new mortgage is £300k on C&I basis, fixed for 3 years at £1390 pm which for them is about 1 third of net income.
Sure rates may rise after 3 years (a certainty) but they will cope and will be sitting on a mass of equity. He really does transform a property.

Back to 1973. I have an applicant aged 68 who bought a big pile bear Jamie Oliver for £2,500! It's now worth £700,000.

Imagine you were on this forum and we were in the same economic times as 1973 - all the bears would say it was reckless to buy!

1978 - a current client bought a huge detached home with 20 acres back then for £60,000. It's now valued at about £3m.
Again if we were experiencing the economic tapestry of 1978, the bears here would be urging restraint.

THE POINT - It's always difficult to see the light when times are dark, but the brave / carefree will be investing now and sitting pretty in 20 years time.

You sound so desperate to convince people that yes house prices are falling but in the long run it will even out.

But why not wait and buy at the bottom?

Really2

Housebear51 wrote: »

But why not wait and buy at the bottom?

Problem is who knows where the bottom is, even if you find it, it will only be confirmed 3 months after your offer (time it takes for sale to go through).
It may have already have been missed, it could of been Feb 2009, or someone getting a massive discount in 2008.;)

You have to find the bottom, (or below preferably) by the time the bottom has been confirmed you have missed it.

mitchaa

arby wrote: »

do you really believe that? i wonder how some people get through life with such limited understanding. I could have bought 3 years ago. I didn't. The exact same house is now £40,000 cheaper while I've increased my deposit by £40,000. Tell me why 3 years ago was a good time to buy for me?

But yet house prices are 10% more expensive now than they were this time last year so why didn't you buy this time last year?

Where have you been living the last 3yrs? how much have you forked out in rent over that time? At least that rent could have been downpaying your mortgage especially had you bought this time last year;)

I can't believe there are still some people waiting for major price falls.

It just isn't going to happen.