It can make a lot of sense to buy now.

Graham_Devon

Conrad has a point.

House prices are highly likely to be higher than now in 10-20 years time, and all thoe people he uses in his post have indeed done well....but no better than anyone else who also bought and stayed in the same house for 10-20 years.

If you are looking to buy a house to stay in for such a lengthy period of time, there really is no real reason not to buy right now.

If, like most of the country, you are looking to buy what you can afford, for your present circumstances, knowing full well your circumstances are likely to change, and earn a normal wage....none of his post really applies. As you have to look short term and what you can afford now. Not how much it may be in 20 years, when you are not very likely to be in the house anyway, and possibly have one of the hardest economic times to get through on your normal wage before you can release any of the goldmine conrad speaks of.

The fact he is now offering 100% guarantees property prices will not crash, only re-itterates the one sided point someone else made in the opening post. This, is why you should never trust someone who has a vested interest, and unfortunately, through all trades where you have to trust someones advice, this kind of one sided, vested interest advice ruins the trust for all of those in the trade.

All this info on how much you could have saved on rent if you bought, how much you could have saved if you bought when prices were falling, how much you could have saved if you bought right at the bottom are ALL hindsight. And that's all they can ever be. People have to do what they can do at the time. It's ok saying buy while prices are falling, you will save x amount in rent....but if you lose your job because the economy is bad and therefore prices are falling in the first place, it's going to cost you a LOT more than what you may have saved in rent.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. But you can't apply it to the future. Life, for most people, is not as simple as an excel spreadsheet calculating how much more it will cost you in interest if you didn't guess right and didnt buy at the right time. There is no crystal ball, unfortunately.

jennihen

I noticed when I was at the solictors that the vendors of the property I am buying are selling at exactly the same price they bought at in 2003. Can't work out if they paid too much or if I did. Is this on a par with property prices in general? They've been on the market for 2 years and have accepted my offer which of 158k - it was originally on for 187k.
Any thoughts?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

arby wrote: »

I could have bought 3 years ago. I didn't. The exact same house is now £40,000 cheaper while I've increased my deposit by £40,000. Tell me why 3 years ago was a good time to buy for me?

I could have rented 3 years ago, I didn't. Identical houses are now selling for £25,000 more, and I've saved around 40 grand in rent since. Interest costs were less than 20K from then til now, and I'm now on a mortgage equivalent to the best tracker deals today for life without paying any more fees..... And I've saved a fortune by overpaying the capital thanks to the record low rates.

Tell me why 3 years ago was a bad time for me to buy?

StevieJ

Chaos_A.D. wrote: »

I guess it's upto people to do what they think is right, but I wouldn't buy now for all the tea in China unless you get a bargain and pay cash. The storm is a brewing, only VI's would even suggest going against the obvious dire fundamentals we see before us.

You mean like yourself and Mr mjkhwletc

Procrastinator333

Conrad wrote: »

I was pondering some applications I'm currently dealing with. At the same time I was thinking back to people I know who bought in past recessions, particulary in 1973, 1978 and 1991.

Current case - apllicants have sold thier home for £500k, having paid £140k in sept 1999.
It's a semi in Surrey.
They are buying a detached wreck for £615k on a huge plot.
He will do it up himslef in evenings (did this with last home) and it could easily be worth £1m in todays market, let alone 5 or 15 years time.

THE POINT - It's always difficult to see the light when times are dark, but the brave / carefree will be investing now and sitting pretty in 20 years time.

In their case, it isn't really a risk to buy, they have plenty of equity and are basically sidestepping in terms of current price, only another £115k. So note really adding much exposure. Sounds like they will do well and on those facts looks like a great decision. Even if prices dropped 25% they would only save about £30k on the trade up and then may not get this same doer uper. So couldn't agree more - For them.

But I disagree regarding a FTB with anything under a 20% deposit and even over that I think it is very debateable.

chucky wrote: »

it's always a good time to buy - it's just that some opportunities are better than others.

it's not always a good time to sell though... selling at the right price and the right time is the tough part.

That doesn't really make sense. Surely it is always a good time to buy if you find the right house / price and always a good time to sell if you find the right buyer / price.

Conrad wrote: »

So why was I posting on here and HPC in 2005 about the comming crash and even did a thread on selling my B2L's?

Trust me 100%, no crash is on the cards.

I did a thread in early 2009 advising people the bottom had been reached and that people should be buying when no one else was and people like you said exactly what you have here.

PS - I do not give advice on markets to clients - merely help those who struggle to raise finance.
As for IFA's, I know plenty of them. Not many advised anyone to buy property in the 90's, so busy they were flogging pensions.

Oh sage, if you are that good at predictions, why are you still a mortgage adviser? Instead of "trusting you" please explain your rational.

mitchaa wrote: »

Where have you been living the last 3yrs? how much have you forked out in rent over that time? At least that rent could have been downpaying your mortgage especially had you bought this time last year;)

Do people forget that interest on a mortgage is just as much dead money as rent? The question should be how much higher or lower has your rental % been compared to interest rates available at the time of purchase.

chucky wrote: »

to be pedantic and taking it further than the ticket price of property - compare buying now on a 3.99% 5 year fix to buying in 5 years time on 6%.

It isn't that simple. If the rent is also 4% for years 1-5 and prices are flat, they are no better or worse of having bought or rented.

chucky wrote: »

if you expect prices to drop more than 10% and rates not to go up - now is not the time to buy.

Really looking at FTB here as large savings make it more complicated, but in a word, no. If RENT % = MORTGAGE % and prices are flat there is no financial gain to renting or buying. It depends on indiviaula circumstance. Such broad brush posts are just nonsense.

chucky wrote: »

why did you copy and paste word for word your post from a Gold and Silver newsletter by Mike Maloney?

Blimey, columbo is in our midst, but very funny you picked him up on that!

neverdespairgirl

Chaos_A.D. wrote: »

!!!!!! !, someone paid half a million quid for the privilege of listening to neighbours belching, farting, music, TV, telephone, arguments, having sex etc... they must be criminally insane, I wouldn't part with more than 120k for a semi.

We live in a 1920s block of flats, neighbours above and below us. Never heard any of the above. Ever. Decent sound proofing is a wonderful thing!

chucky

Procrastinator333 wrote: »

That doesn't really make sense. Surely it is always a good time to buy if you find the right house / price and always a good time to sell if you find the right buyer / price.

without getting into a 500 page thread there are too many variables to account for for different people FTBs or homeovers etc. i did generalise and one isn't better than the other unless you can buy at the right price. which i agree with you.

Procrastinator333 wrote: »

Blimey, columbo is in our midst, but very funny you picked him up on that!

i'm always funny

it was the Thomas Jefferson quote that made me curious "I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies". i knew he had got it from somewhere!

Thrugelmir

Conrad wrote: »

Have the bulk of pensions or other package investments grown from £2500 in 1973 to £700,000 today without any further capital contributions?

My basic take home pay was around £94 per month back then and my parents rent was £8 a week. So £2,500 was a large sum of money to invest with.

Money has always made money. For most people its getting hold of capital in the first place to invest thats the issue.

zappahey

Conrad wrote: »

NEW YEARSDAY 2013;

Leaner fitter UK business is rising leaps and bounds having spent the last 5 years repaying debt and putting on cash and also benefiting from a leaner regulatory culture.
Never before has Business been so cash rich.

Dividends have surged on the back of the slash and burn cost reduction undertaken over the last 5 years and further underpinned by reduced business borrowing.

UK households are similarly well placed having taken the period of low rates to reduce debt.

A resurgent private sector has blossomed and taken up the slack left by bloated state.

House price inflation has taken analysists by surprise fueld by an extended period of low rates and rising demand for rental property as less people are able to access the mortgage market.

Several more nations are well into the 'developing' phase, including Morocco, Vietnam and Botswana.

Have you changed medication or something?

Serious question.

I recall you as being a slightly bearish, but mostly balanced, poster and yet, a little while ago, you seemed to turn almost manically optimistic overnight.

iB1

I think it's a good time to buy property if you have a good 20-25% deposit and can fix for a few years.

I think it's a terrible time to buy property if you are relying on a builder's gifted deposit on a new build shoebox.