It can make a lot of sense to buy now.

Bullfighter

chucky wrote: »

for property to drop 20% it needed banks collapsing, stock markets crashing, insurance companies being bailed out, global liquidity markets closing down, trillions of $$$ of wealth destruction etc etc

20% drops in nominal terms ain't happening again...

You are right. When this all happens again (and it will) the normal paradigms that Conrad has been reminiscing about, the beautiful grinding multi decade ponzi inflation, will just evaporate. In near term we we will see further deflation and then crippling hyper-inflation/currency devaluation.

The world governments put the crash on hiatus with their unprecedented multi-trillion dollar bank bail-outs and near zero interest rates. You think it is all over, and we can all just carry on as if it was 2006? Please.

Over the next few years there are just too many fundamental and structural issues about to body slam the global monetary system - it ain't gonna survive as it is. My prediction: In 2010-2020 owning a property is fine. owing a property.. probably very, very bad.

Conrad

Emy1501 wrote: »

As you say market is unlikely to go anywhere over the next year or so so as long as one get in before the spring of next year there should not be a problem.

I suspect fixed rate money will rise by next spring. Fixing now for 3 - 5 years around 4% is perhaps a fair hedge.

Even if there are short term falls, the sums involved will be pretty benign, so I can't really see the argument for waiting.

No vested interest - I'm doing better than I thought as more people sturuggle to raise fianance.

Blacklight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Which just leaves you in 5k negative equity.

Brrrrr-illiant.

After enjoying living in your own home for five years.

Still, if you're looking to buy purely from an investment point of view then I guess you can afford to wait five or ten years for the next big crash and make your 20%.

Graham_Devon

Blacklight wrote: »

After enjoying living in your own home for five years.

Glad they'd be enjoying it, considering they'd have no choice but to stay there unless they can stump up the "exit fee"

BTW, your earlier 15k paid off. It's just shy of 8k.

You said just now on another thread you liked to work with facts. So I hope you don't mind me bringing that little one in.

I'm not allowed to talk about 20% falls with you in this example, I get someone on my case, so excuse me for editing that bit out

Blacklight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

BTW, your earlier 15k paid off. It's just shy of 8k.

You said just now on another thread you liked to work with facts. So I hope you don't mind me bringing that little one in.

No I don't mind at all considering it's £11,419.82. With due allowance for inflation at 3% pa over five years I think you'll find it's not far shy of £15k.

Graham_Devon

Blacklight wrote: »

No I don't mind at all considering it's £11,419.82. With due allowance for inflation at 3% pa over five years I think you'll find it's not far shy of £15k.

I notice you have used the 5% rate, not the 7% rate the other person has to pay. So it's a 5 year fix you are using.

If that's the case, you are right. Still not 15k, and still leaves 9.5k neg equity.

The inflation point is just desperate. Sorry. We'd have to totally recalculate all the pro's and con's of the situation we are discussing if you are going to bring inflation in. Afterall, for the person waiting, the house would cost even less than 80k with inflation bought into the equation, making them even better off than the person with the higher loan