Xcite Energy Ltd (XEL)

Shatners_Bassoon

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

CPR I dont know what that means So XEL is at least spudding, its valued higher because its further along the exploration route and obviously north sea is alot more developed and safe compared to Georgia. Theres obviously the russian risk.
I did notice a big oil pipeline runs through the country, this helps I hope

On projections only, xel is set lower then rrl georgia assets or higher? I read GKP is doing flow tests recently too, even bigger 1.2bn cap. 3000 barrels a day I think they got

A CPR is a competent persons report which is produced by a third party company to detail the potential of another company and their assets. Range Resources are as you say at the very early stages of the oil story and XEL are well over half way to producing.

GKP is massive but the problem there is the political aspect and until that is fixed then it's not going to go anywhere as they cannot export the oil. GKP oil price in that area of Kurdistan is rumoured to be $1 per barrel whereas XEL is somewhere like $10 per barrel, so the company is worth x10 more than GKP even on a 200mmbl find!

MiM

Darkpool - leave it out mate. Reasonable debate is fine but you're just being silly. I think you know well that this is not even close to insider trading. Take a look at any share message board, eg iii, and you'll find people with detailed info posting it all the time anyway.

As a shareholder, he's quite entitled to say "we" when referring to XEL.

If you have contrary views about the company, by all means post them, but stop being argumentative for the sake of it.

shaun_from_Africa

I had a look at wikipedia for "insider dealing" and this is what it said:Insider trading is the trading of a corporation's stock or other securities (e.g. bonds or stock options) by individuals with potential access to non-public information about the company.

I made quite a killing on an Australian oil company a fair few years ago following advice given to me by a drilling manager from that company.
He didn't disclose any non public information, but simply explained in datail what the official press releases and company reports actually meant.
Just because someone with ""30 years experience in oil" gives advice doesn't automatically make it a case of insider dealing.

jimjames

darkpool wrote: »

Hi Chris,

I had a look at wikipedia for "insider dealing" and this is what it said:Insider trading is the trading of a corporation's stock or other securities (e.g. bonds or stock options) by individuals with potential access to non-public information about the company.

I'm not holding XEL and have no intention of buying them or other similar shares but you really seem to be missing the point.

It is only insider trading if it is secret information about THAT specific company. Having a good background knowledge of oil geology built over 30 years is not insider trading. If it was then no analyst would be able to trade in any share that they had researched!!

chris_m

jimjames wrote: »

It is only insider trading if it is secret information about THAT specific company. Having a good background knowledge of oil geology built over 30 years is not insider trading. If it was then no analyst would be able to trade in any share that they had researched!!

Exactly - if, for example, someone were to see the flow tests results and buy/sell shares because the results were better/worse than anticipated, before the results were made public then that would be insider dealing. Likewise people with access to financial results prior to publication.
Just general knowledge/experience never can be.

Shatners_Bassoon

Oh you mean like MM's who can read the RNS before it's actually out?

Anyway let's end this debate about XEL and really wait for the "official" RNS from XEL which will hopefully detail the flow rates etc... Maybe then the doubters on here will finally see that this is indeed the making of a great oil producer and by far the biggest commercial find in the North Sea for decades.

Good luck all !

buglawton

Honest folks better stay clear!

uptomyeyeballs

People here are saying that there might not be enough to run a scooter. Well, it's been known that this field has had vast amounts of oil in it since the mid 1970's, but back then they didn't have the tech to get it out. Now they do, and that is what is happening with Xcite. The company have said that the deposit is bigger than first thought and they are confident they can get it out with commercially viable flow rates.

Profit/loss don't come into it with this type of stock. It's well known that they will need to fund their drilling ahead of extraction. Unless someone comes up with a DFS type 'drill now, pay 2014' credit scheme, oil exploration companies will always have upfront costs. Yes, these types of stocks are risky, but a savvy investor will have 'de-risked' a long time ago with Xcite Energy.

The company can't be re-rated until the flow tests reveal that the deposit is extractable, then it becomes a reserve, owned wholly by Excite. That is why Arbuthnot say 'Neutral' now. The broker target pre-flow test was 247p. It has been reached, and even though they can see the possibilities ahead, until they are a virtual certainty they won't re-rate (the margin the share price has been driven above the target price has been due to investors getting a little ahead of themselves). As i've said before, in my opinion £5/share is easily possible if flow tests are favourable. Maybe more. I've been in since 64p, so my conclusions about the company have been upheld.

The people who will be rewarded most richly with this share will be the ones who got in early. It was risky, but it was a calculated risk based on the available info which was all positive. I have stayed in because that info continues to be positive. Even if this share drops 50% with a less than satisfactory flow test, I will still be in profit and my capital protected by de-risking. Those people who are thinking of buying in now will face a more significant risk if things bomb, but I still think that is unlikely now, but DYOR.

Shatners_Bassoon

I think that sums things up nicely and pretty much echoes what most of us have been saying on here all along.

darkpool

I have to say I love this thread! The enthusiasm on it is amazing!

Now I'll admit I'm not a trading hotshot like some of you characters, but how do you read the comments from XCITES house broker? I take it he's saying people are reading sites like this and getting overexcited? If institutional buyers aren't buying is that not a bad thing? After all institutions have their own analysts etc to research things? I've even heard some of them employ geologists to advise them?

“Xcite's share price has increased by 235% since drilling started. This increase has been primarily driven by the retail market" Arbuthnot