UK unemployment increases to 2.47 million

ash28

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Have you factored in that the increase in retirement age to 66 may be brought forward?

TBH, we've factored in the fact we might not get a state pension at all....

If we get one it'll be a bonus.... I wouldn't be surprised to see it means tested at some point in the future.... I would be a bit pee'd (putting it politely) if it was means tested as we are both fully paid up members (both have over 30 years of contributions), but it wouldn't be the end of the world, or change our plans.

mbga9pgf

StevieJ wrote: »

I wouldn't have thought those two were mutually exclusive.

Government employs lots of people to reduce unemployment.

equals massive pensions liability, inability to pay down deficit as well as a huge wage bill. The cuts to come to benefits will mean anyone unemployed who was previously on the state books will be costing a fraction of what they used to on behalf of the state.

bendix

torontoboy45 wrote: »

great idea, bendix, but you didn't go far enough:

zero benefits and the unemployed will.....well, what?

burgle yr pad? nick yr car? riot? mug you?

and when they do any of the above no doubt you'll be posting about 'the breakdown of society'!

On the contrary, I shall be sipping a beer by the pool of my villa in Thailand where, ironically, they have no welfare state and a crime rate significantly below that of the UK.

Cheers :beer:

Shakethedisease

Wages don't have to fall to Chinese levels as UK workers in traded sectors are more efficient than Chinese ones. UK workers making a traded good or service has to be able to produce the same amount for the same money or less than a Chinese worker. That's why call centres and textiles production have moved from the UK but sophisticated engineering hasn't.

Well that's all very well and nice. But since sophisticated engineering is not what your 'average' worker in the Uk does ( more likely to be sitting at a till in Tesco or working for Kwik-fit slinging tyres on etc etc ) .. then that doesn't make sense with wholesale average wages does it ?

While the sophisticated 'markets' exist still they're most definately in the minority. Most other sectors are being eroded in favour of part-time min wage workers, outsourcing abroad.. or the public sector which as we know will shortly be decimated.

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Well that's all very well and nice. But since sophisticated engineering is not what your 'average' worker in the Uk does ( more likely to be sitting at a till in Tesco or working for Kwik-fit slinging tyres on etc etc ) .. then that doesn't make sense with wholesale average wages does it ?

While the sophisticated 'markets' exist still they're most definately in the minority. Most other sectors are being eroded in favour of part-time min wage workers, outsourcing abroad.. or the public sector which as we know will shortly be decimated.

Clearly there will either have to be an erosion of wages or higher unemployment (or more likely a bit of both) as jobs move to lower cost centres. However it is wrong to think that it's the same as British workers being paid the same as Chinese ones.

Unless people are going to go to China to get their tyres changed or do their shopping, wages in China won't have a direct impact on wages to do these non-tradable jobs (although there is a secondary effect as spending patterns change to reflect changes in relative prices).

Overall though, I agree with what you're saying. It seems likely to be a bad time to be a low-wage low-skill worker as there are the twin forces of reduced Government spending and increasing international competition for your job pushing down your income.

kennyboy66_2

Generali wrote: »

Overall though, I agree with what you're saying. It seems likely to be a bad time to be a low-wage low-skill worker as there are the twin forces of reduced Government spending and increasing international competition for your job pushing down your income.

It's been a bad time to be a low wage, low skill worker for the last 10+ years as a result of immigration (particularly eastern european).

Generali

kennyboy66 wrote: »

It's been a bad time to be a low wage, low skill worker for the last 10+ years as a result of immigration (particularly eastern european).

In fairness, I guess it's hard to think of a good time to be in such a position!

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Generali wrote: »

In fairness, I guess it's hard to think of a good time to be in such a position!

No offence Generali.

But thats one hell of an ignorant post...........

Silverbull

drc wrote: »

Real unemployment is about 10 million when you factor in all those people not working, not getting benefits.

Who is working and not getting benefits? Not many I think. Everyone with children gets child benefit even if youv got millions.

But maybe your 10 million real unemployment figure is closer to the truth.

Thrugelmir

Generali wrote: »

Clearly there will either have to be an erosion of wages or higher unemployment (or more likely a bit of both) as jobs move to lower cost centres. However it is wrong to think that it's the same as British workers being paid the same as Chinese ones.

Unless people are going to go to China to get their tyres changed or do their shopping, wages in China won't have a direct impact on wages to do these non-tradable jobs (although there is a secondary effect as spending patterns change to reflect changes in relative prices).

Overall though, I agree with what you're saying. It seems likely to be a bad time to be a low-wage low-skill worker as there are the twin forces of reduced Government spending and increasing international competition for your job pushing down your income.

A good illustration is a plastic product which is distributed in the UK for 99 pence. Of the 99 pence only 22 pence actually goes to the Chinese Company that manufactures it. Out of the 22 pence. 16 pence covers the cost of the raw materials leaving 6 pence to cover overheads, wages and profit for the Chinese Company.

So as wage demands in China push up the cost of the product from 22 pence. There is a huge margin of 77 pence that the UK importer has to work with. So its entirely possible for the increased cost to be absorbed without increasing the final selling price.

For the majority of UK companies salary costs are often their single largest overhead. So the natural squeeze will applied here.

In the coming decades there will be a leveling off of incomes between developed economies in this global world.