If you are thinking of buying this summer ....

carolt

So did the removal of HIPs only last for 1 month?

Hardly.

I think you should know better than that, nollag.

And the figures don't show 1 month falls - they show a clear trend of falls over the last 3 months.

At least bother to read replies before you attempt to comment on them.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

carolt wrote: »

Er...you seem to have missed the fact that the most reliable source shows prices have been falling for the past 3 months.

Acadametrics, which you are referring to, also showed prices falling for 6 consecutive months in 2005.

I don't remember a hpc in 2005.

Not to mention that Academetrics also showed prices have almost returned to peak..... A fact you're always very keen to deny.;)

nollag2006

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

...Academetrics also showed prices have almost returned to peak..... A fact you're always very keen to deny.;)

Poor old bears

There are none so blind as those who will not see

:rotfl:

Henry_P_Chester

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Acadametrics, which you are referring to, also showed prices falling for 6 consecutive months in 2005.

I don't remember a hpc in 2005.

Did they Hamish?

Jan-05£191,166 0.4
Feb-05£192,239 0.6
Mar-05£192,175 0.0
Apr-05£192,272 0.1
May-05£191,723 -0.3
Jun-05£192,310 0.3
Jul-05£192,383 0.0
Aug-05£192,686 0.2
Sep-05£193,237 0.3
Oct-05£194,417 0.6
Nov-05£195,347 0.5
Dec-05£197,076 0.9

Jan-10£219,796 1.5
Feb-10£223,428 1.7
Mar-10£222,403 -0.5
Apr-10£220,806 -0.7
May-10£220,352 -0.2

Only the one fall in 2005 as you can see.

Source:http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/AcadHPI%20National%20Monthly%20Growth%20Series%20from%201971%20May%2010.xls

thor

The price to wage ratio had gone through the roof at the height of the bubble and with many having their wages frozen combined with the massive increase in unemployment after the budget, surely the only way is down for house prices? It is only interest rates hitting the floor that stopped them crashing in the first place.

chucky

nollag2006 wrote: »

Wow ! A 0.2% fall in May caused by budget uncertainty and the removal of HIPS? I think that we both know what the underlying trend in the Halifax (well known "VI") shows:

they did drop for 3 month on the Halifax on the seasonally adjusted I believe, total of 0.8% i think it is.
on the un-adjusted it's only dropped for one month and that's 0.9%

leave people to pick which they wish to follow - they focusing ion the wrong one IMO.

the 3 months falls isn't great news for those hoping for a crash.
the one month 0.9% drop is maybe more good news for them but leaves it positive since Jan.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Henry_P_Chester wrote: »

Did they Hamish?

Yes, they did......

Published: September 9 2005 09:34 | Last updated: September 9 2005 09:34

House prices in England and Wales fell for the sixth month in a row in August, according to the FT house price index, the most reliable guide to the prices achieved by sellers in the property market, published on Friday.

After another small monthly drop of 0.1 per cent last month, the annual rate of house price inflation has declined from 15.2 per cent in August 2004 to 3 per cent.




House prices have not increased since December last year, with an average property fetching £190,833 on the market in August.


The figures suggest that house price inflation is edging down to zero, an important point when home owners will have few grounds to believe house prices will rise in the near term and investors will no longer be able to justify holding property on the basis of past capital appreciation.

Acadametrics, the consultancy that compiles the FT price index, said house price inflation “is likely to fall further still” because rises in prices last Autumn will gradually fall out of the calculation in the remainder of this year.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/b767ee50-206e-11da-b59e-00000e2511c8.html

:rotfl:

Acadametrics claimed at the time that house prices fell for 6 months in a row in 2005.

Did you also know that Acadametrics revise their previous house price index numbers after the fact?

Henry_P_Chester

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yes, they did......

Did you also know that Acadametrics revise their previous house price index numbers after the fact?

Yes I did know that, the blue data I posted has been revised. So prices didn't fall 6 months in a row as they were revised up.

So you're wrong arn't you.

nollag2006

thor wrote: »

The price to wage ratio had gone through the roof at the height of the bubble and with many having their wages frozen combined with the massive increase in unemployment after the budget, surely the only way is down for house prices? It is only interest rates hitting the floor that stopped them crashing in the first place.

Complete twaddle.

The house price to income ratio for Halifax customers is currently 4.76. The last time it had been this low, prior to the crash of 2008, was in Q3 2003 !!! Even the muppets on HPC weren't screaming about a crash then.

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/excel/2010/AffordabilityQ12010.xls

With interest rates likely to stay low for the forseeable future due to fiscal tightening, and mortgage payments as a percentage of gross income at historically low levels, house prices are likely to continue the inexorable climb upwards.

brit1234

nollag2006 wrote: »

With interest rates likely to stay low for the forseeable future due to fiscal tightening, and mortgage payments as a percentage of gross income at historically low levels, house prices are likely to continue the inexorable climb upwards.

:rotfl:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bs_sB-oq5_I