House prices fell by 0.4% in May.

Generali

Wookster wrote: »

What do you think will give?

Not sure. I just don't see the British accepting things being perpetually awful. I think it could go one of two ways, either the Tories/ComDems push through some real austerity and you guys have the resulting hard down swing followed by a return to close to normal, albeit probably with living standards down a bit or perhaps alternatively you get fed up with fiscal probity and go for someone who promises to spend their way out of trouble and you get bitten hard by the markets with similar ultimate consequences (austerity and a return to fiscal probity).

Ultimately either your Government needs to shrink in size or you will have to accept falling living standards as there is no way that taxes on 48% of the economy can support the public sector as 52% of the economy.

ruggedtoast

Generali wrote: »

It's amazing to think that in the 1980s they were considered the worlds' great consumers. Supposedly it was pretty normal to chuck out a TV that was a year or so old to replace it with this year's model.

Consumption and business investment collapsed during the lost 'decade'. According to this spectacularly dull academic paper (link) on page 36, consumption fell by about 2%pa and non-housing investment by over 7.5% for 12 years to 2003 :eek: Consumption and investment were basically replaced by lending money to the Government at very low rates of interest to run deficits. Crowding out at it's crudest.

Although bank rates have been at virtually nothing for years attempting to borrow money seems to be pretty usurious there. Banks are unwilling to lend to individuals except on the strictest criteria, and even the reputable loan companies charge very high APR and are owned by Yaks who'll savage you with chihuahhuahs and break your legs if you miss a payment.

Also unemployment benefit lasts for 6 months then you get nothing.

There just isnt much cultural leaning towards there being any source of money if you need to pay for something you dont have savings for.

The Harajuku kids are certainly spending money, but theyre only spending money they've got. Which just isnt cricket in a fractional reserve system.

Dirk_Rambo

sarkin1 wrote: »

Read un and weep, falls for the second month in a row, one more month for trend

this rings truer than the other survey that laughably claimed that house prices were rising. i can see these falls continuing for many months to come.

Really2

Dirk_Rambo wrote: »

this rings truer than the other survey that laughably claimed that house prices were rising.

The ones showing a fall are "truer" than others???? (no one can be that narrow minded surely)

Let me guess all the rises last year on halifax (and the two this year) were "truer" also.

You have settled in well here, almost like you have been here before.;).

One thing for sure is silver dropped more today than house prices did in a month 1.8%.:)


Edit now over 2%. ouch.

nembot

Prices tend to stagnate somewhat before going in either direction, so it's a little too early to call what's going to happen in 6 months time. The economic variables would suggest a downward trend, but we all know the market defies logic on a regular basis.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

So far seasonally adjusted prices are down 1.1% over 5 months.

The noise off that is stagnation not crash (1 month is noise add it together to get over 12 months and you get the picture of the year). You could see 1% up next month.
So 3 months up 3 months down and seeing no change.

When prices crash they fall hard like in 07/08 not go up and down small amounts.

The ONLY people using the word crash on this thread, is yourself and chucky.

No one else has even mentioned it.

Now, the thing for me here, is that sure, its not much, but prices, according to Halifax, are falling, over 2 consecutive months.

We haven't had interest rate rises yet, we haven't had cuts yet, we haven't had CGT applied yet, and we have seen mortgage lending increase, and deposit needed, reduce.

Maybe the crazy season after the crash is simply coming to an end?

I dunno, it's impossible to forecast, but to see falls now surprises me, especially 2 consecutive ones, and I do wonder if falls are happening now....how will it cope with possible CGT applied, interest rate rises, public sector cuts etc (which we may start to know the scale of after the budget).

I thought prices would start to fall when some of those started to apply, not before they are applied. (though I did think interest rates would have gone up a while back!!)

If prices DO start to fall again, what do we have up the countries sleave this time?

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The ONLY people using the word crash on this thread, is yourself and chucky.

wrong again - actually it's 5 people including me and Really

angrypirate
kennyboy66
Wheezy

so what is your point...

lemonjelly

Isn't 2 consecutive months of negatives classed as a recession?;)

chucky

lemonjelly wrote: »

Isn't 2 consecutive months of negatives classed as a recession?;)

depends if you decide to use seasonally adjusted or unadjusted if there is a fall or a price rise

the desperate ones tend to be inconsistent and use what ever suits their desperate times

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

depends if you decide to use seasonally adjusted or unadjusted if there is a fall or a price rise

the desperate ones tend to be inconsistent and use what ever suits their desperate times

Desperate?

This graph has been used consistently, by both sides of the fence, for over a couple of years now.



No one is being desperate. They are using the very same statistics that have been used throughout....in nearly every months house price threads!!