House prices fell by 0.4% in May.

Henry_P_Chester

chucky wrote: »

have another go - where's the two months of dropping house prices?

Jan 2010 165,514
Feb 2010 165,997
Mar 2010 167,808
Apr 2010 170,772
May 2010 169,204

maybe you could try the phone a friend option or ask the audience to help you out.. here's the actual links to save you some time
http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/excel/2010/04_06_10_historic_data.xls

I don't mean to keep pickin on you chucky but you do quite often get your figures wrong:

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/research/2010/HousePriceIndexMay2010.pdf

mar £168,433
apr £168,212
may £167,570

as you say your figures are not seasonally adjusted. Which means that for a flat Market overall prices need to have risen by 0.4% more than they did.

Generali

The key to where the housing market is going IME is likely to depend on 3 things in the short run:

- lending, I doubt we'll see substantial price rises without it
- unemployment rising & increased interest rates, I doubt we'll see substantial falls without one or both

Things seem to be in !!!!!! stasis right now - things are pretty bad but not really getting much worse nor better. Maybe the UK economy can limp along for years like that. My suspicion is something has to give as the UK doesn't have hoards of domestic savers willing to accept very low rates of interest as has propped Japan up.

chucky

sarkin1 wrote: »

Well I am glad you worked that out, there has been some debate on here for as far as I can remember about S/A.

But we dont want to rake up old news do we

and just to be consistent it's 0.92% down not 0.4% down - seasonal adjustment is rollox and doesn't tell you the real figure...

chucky

Henry_P_Chester wrote: »

I don't mean to keep pickin on you chucky but you do quite often get your figures wrong:

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/research/2010/HousePriceIndexMay2010.pdf

mar £168,433
apr £168,212
may £167,570

as you say your figures are seasonally adjusted. Which means that for a flat Market overall prices need to have risen by 0.4% more than they did.

i don't mind you picking me up when i'm wrong but you're looking at Seasonally Adjusted Mr Chester you made the bit up about me using Seasonally adjusted - feel free to use the massaged numbers however

Generali

chucky wrote: »

and just to be consistent it's 0.92% down not 0.4% down - seasonal adjustment is rollox and doesn't tell you the real figure...

To be fair without SA the graph of house prices would look like this: wwwwww.


Hamish would run MSE out of beer and rolling smilies every Spring leaving the bears only the winky smilies to prove they were right after all every winter.

Haliwide use SA for a good reason, if they didn't only a yoy comparison would make any sense at all.

the_flying_pig

seasonally adjusted prices show we're slightly down in 2010:

Nov 09 - 167,451;
Dec 09 - 168,763;
Jan 10 - 169,484;
Feb 10 - 166,703;
Mar 10 - 168,433;
Apr 10 - 168,212;
May10 - 167,570

sarkin1

Mate i cant keep up with you. the figures are right, no the figures are wrong well there right but these ones are wrong.

Can you confirm your position of S/A, so we know when you are talking rollox

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Halifax and Nationwide indices have diverged, with one showing a rise, and the other a fall.

This has happened previously as well.

At the start of the rises last year, Nationwide showed rises, Halifax showed falls.

The explanation being used by the bears on hpc last year was that Nationwide is slightly biased towards the South of England, and Halifax is slightly biased towards the North of England.

Looking at the Land Registry regional figures, this would make sense, as the worst performing areas are in the North.

Emy1501

In line with my opinions that prices will be down by up to 5% by end of year. Think things will get tougher once we get into holiday season and cuts are announced.

House sales still strong where I am in South London but Flat sales are stalling and if this continues this will have an affect on people trying to trade up.

smamst

Spring bounce in action I see