House prices fell by 0.4% in May.

Really2

angrypirate wrote: »

So the first 5 months of this year we have had 3 months of negative and 2 months of positives. Whats to say the 2 months of positive arent "noise" as you put it?

I believe this is why they publish a 3 month on 3 month change along with the numbers which in May stands at -0.1% and April stood at -0.5%

So far seasonally adjusted prices are down 1.1% over 5 months.

The noise off that is stagnation not crash (1 month is noise add it together to get over 12 months and you get the picture of the year). You could see 1% up next month.
So 3 months up 3 months down and seeing no change.

When prices crash they fall hard like in 07/08 not go up and down small amounts.

Wheezy_2

new_home_owner wrote: »

I dont think this is right i seen a house down my road that has been up for sale for 15 years, it started at 200,000 pound and now its 114 pound, i dont know what the drop is, has my property wasp isnt working.

but heres a link if someone can work it out.

http://www.argos.co.uk/static/Product/partNumber/3400102/Trail/searchtext%3ETENT.htm

:rotfl:50% off :eek: I've always stated that those Pro Action Hyperdome 10 Person 2 Room Tents were terrible overpriced. 100% gauranteed. Crash Crash Crash. Spin your way out of that one, Hamish!

kennyboy66_2

Really2 wrote: »

So far seasonally adjusted prices are down 1.1% over 5 months.

The noise off that is stagnation not crash (1 month is noise add it together to get over 12 months and you get the picture of the year). You could see 1% up next month.
So 3 months up 3 months down and seeing no change.

When prices crash they fall hard like in 07/08 not go up and down small amounts.

Stagnation (or even modest falls) will be good all round if accompanied by some mild inflation (CPI 3.7%, RPI 5.3% in April).

Another 3-5 years of that please.

ruggedtoast

Generali wrote: »

. My suspicion is something has to give as the UK doesn't have hoards of domestic savers willing to accept very low rates of interest as has propped Japan up.

I used to teach salarymen English in Tokyo, so as you can imagine I was privileged to take part in some scintillating conversations, where thoughts and preconceptions were constantly challenged by new and innovative ideas.

About half way through my tenure, before I'd acquiesced to being in the life version of Awakenings but no L-Dopa to administer to anyone , in desperation I attemped to fire them up with some coneptual what if scenarios.

"Imagine you won the lottery Takashi, what would you do?"
Big smile. "Oh, I would put it in the bank".
"Well, yes some ofm it obviously, to get that 0.001% interest. But what would you spend it on?"
Smile gone. "I would not spend it I would put it in the bank"
"Ok imagine you CANT put it in the bank. You HAVE to spend it like in Brewsters Millions. What would you do?"
Angry and confused. "I dont want to spend it. It must go in the bank"

<sigh>

"How about you Satoshi"
"I would put it in the bank".

angrypirate

Really2 wrote: »

So far seasonally adjusted prices are down 1.1% over 5 months.

The noise off that is stagnation not crash (1 month is noise add it together to get over 12 months and you get the picture of the year). You could see 1% up next month.
So 3 months up 3 months down and seeing no change.

When prices crash they fall hard like in 07/08 not go up and down small amounts.

The crash started with falls of 0.4 and 0.5% per month. You really should check your facts before posting.
Copied directly from
http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/excel/2010/04_06_10_historic_data.xls
Month Index Month Price Quarterly 3 Month on 3 Month
% change Annual%
Aug2007 646.0 0.3 199,612 11.4 1.6
Sep2007 642.6 -0.5 198,533 10.7 1.1
Oct2007 639.8 -0.4 197,698 8.9 0.4
Nov2007 631.4 -1.3 195,092 6.3 -0.8
Dec2007 637.8 1.0 197,074 5.2 -1.2
Jan2008 635.1 -0.4 196,244 4.5 -1.2

Jonbvn

ruggedtoast wrote: »

I used to teach salarymen English in Tokyo, so as you can imagine I was privileged to take part in some scintillating conversations, where thoughts and preconceptions were constantly challenged by new and innovative ideas.

About half way through my tenure, before I'd acquiesced to being in the life version of Awakenings but no L-Dopa to administer to anyone , in desperation I attemped to fire them up with some coneptual what if scenarios.

"Imagine you won the lottery Takashi, what would you do?"
Big smile. "Oh, I would put it in the bank".
"Well, yes some ofm it obviously, to get that 0.001% interest. But what would you spend it on?"
Smile gone. "I would not spend it I would put it in the bank"
"Ok imagine you CANT put it in the bank. You HAVE to spend it like in Brewsters Millions. What would you do?"
Angry and confused. "I dont want to spend it. It must go in the bank"

<sigh>

"How about you Satoshi"
"I would put it in the bank".

It would be interesting to know what the response from some younger (non-salarymen) Japanese would be. Judging by the last time I went to Harajuku, probably spend it all on Burberry scarves and hair dye.;)

Wookster

Generali wrote: »

My suspicion is something has to give as the UK doesn't have hoards of domestic savers willing to accept very low rates of interest as has propped Japan up.

What do you think will give?

Generali

ruggedtoast wrote: »

I used to teach salarymen English in Tokyo, so as you can imagine I was privileged to take part in some scintillating conversations, where thoughts and preconceptions were constantly challenged by new and innovative ideas.

About half way through my tenure, before I'd acquiesced to being in the life version of Awakenings but no L-Dopa to administer to anyone , in desperation I attemped to fire them up with some coneptual what if scenarios.

"Imagine you won the lottery Takashi, what would you do?"
Big smile. "Oh, I would put it in the bank".
"Well, yes some ofm it obviously, to get that 0.001% interest. But what would you spend it on?"
Smile gone. "I would not spend it I would put it in the bank"
"Ok imagine you CANT put it in the bank. You HAVE to spend it like in Brewsters Millions. What would you do?"
Angry and confused. "I dont want to spend it. It must go in the bank"

<sigh>

"How about you Satoshi"
"I would put it in the bank".

It's amazing to think that in the 1980s they were considered the worlds' great consumers. Supposedly it was pretty normal to chuck out a TV that was a year or so old to replace it with this year's model.

Consumption and business investment collapsed during the lost 'decade'. According to this spectacularly dull academic paper (link) on page 36, consumption fell by about 2%pa and non-housing investment by over 7.5% for 12 years to 2003 :eek: Consumption and investment were basically replaced by lending money to the Government at very low rates of interest to run deficits. Crowding out at it's crudest.

Really2

angrypirate wrote: »

The crash started with falls of 0.4 and 0.5% per month. You really should check your facts before posting.
Copied directly from
http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/excel/2010/04_06_10_historic_data.xls
Month Index Month Price Quarterly 3 Month on 3 Month
% change Annual%
Aug2007 646.0 0.3 199,612 11.4 1.6
Sep2007 642.6 -0.5 198,533 10.7 1.1
Oct2007 639.8 -0.4 197,698 8.9 0.4
Nov2007 631.4 -1.3 195,092 6.3 -0.8
Dec2007 637.8 1.0 197,074 5.2 -1.2
Jan2008 635.1 -0.4 196,244 4.5 -1.2

Three consecutive falls totaling more than 2.2% (annualised -8.8% ish:)) the total fall for the last 5 months is 1.1% (annualised -2.6% ish:))?

What are you trying to prove, that I am right pointing out prices look to be stagnating.

But if you think I am wrong pop us a prediction up as I still stick by what I said.

Yakubu22

Really2 wrote: »

Three consecutive falls totaling more than 2.2% (annualised -8.8% ish:)) the total fall for the last 5 months is 1.1% (annualised -2.6% ish:))?

What are you trying to prove, that I am right pointing out prices look to be stagnating.

But if you think I am wrong pop us a prediction up as I still stick by what I said.

Nice to read a balanced opinion on this forum for a change.