Express - Peak prices set to return

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

the_flying_pig wrote: »

Yes, they've been wrong for a good five years.

But look at their credentials (e.g. http://www.capitaleconomics.com/rogerbootle/index.php). Think about their motives.

Then do the same for any estate agent. Especially Stuart Law.

To assume that CE or MW do not also have vested interests and/or motivations is naive.

Bootle has a journalistic career and seeks publicity as much as anyone else, Moneyweek survives on circulation, which in their case seems to lead them to ever more sensationalist headline seeking and distinctly dodgy "free" emails trying to panic the masses into buying their product.

Not to mention, Moneyweeks Editor in Chief STR-ing in 2006 and relentlessly crash ramping ever since. Creating a situation where as a journalist you stand to gain from crashing a market, and then proceding to do your best to spook people about that market can't rank too highly on the old ethics scale.....

But ultimately, as you admit, they've both been consistently wrong. Which in the world of forecasting is really all that matters..... Whereas Stuart Law, warts and all, has been right far more often.

And if you believe their credentials to be so impressive, surely that makes their consistent failure to be even remotely right, and be bested so often by a mere Estate Agent, even worse?

the_flying_pig

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

To assume that CE or MW do not also have vested interests and/or motivations is naive.

Bootle has a journalistic career and seeks publicity as much as anyone else, Moneyweek survives on circulation, which in their case seems to lead them to ever more sensationalist headline seeking and distinctly dodgy "free" emails trying to panic the masses into buying their product.

Not to mention, Moneyweeks Editor in Chief STR-ing in 2006 and relentlessly crash ramping ever since. Creating a situation where as a journalist you stand to gain from crashing a market, and then proceding to do your best to spook people about that market can't rank too highly on the old ethics code...

The problem with this little, "everyone has a vested interest" kidney stone of wisdom that you seem gush every now and then is that it overlooks the extent of vested interests. This is never more comical than when you blithely assume that any old market commentator or would-be upsizer has the same strength of VI as someone like Fergus Wilson [whose entire income and net worth are tied up in residential pwoperdee & who owes circa £100m secured against a huge, singularly undiversified, slice of it within a a radius of a few miles] or Stuey Law, whose entire income depends on persuading gullible idiots to spunk their life savings on ultra-low yield bricks & mortar.

If anything by far the strongest incentive that an outfit like Capital Economics has is to, if it can, get its forecasts right so that it can boast about having done so after the event [as per the 'credentials' page that I provided a link to above].

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

...And if you believe their credentials to be impressive, surely that makes their consistent failure to be even remotely right even worse?

I don't know what you mean. The credentials make me think they might have half a chance of getting it right next time around.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

the_flying_pig wrote: »

.

If anything by far the strongest incentive that an outfit like Capital Economics has is to, if it can, get its forecasts right so that it can boast about having done so after the event [as per the 'credentials' page that I provided a link to above].

And that page does let us know that Bootle has an impressive record of forecasting interest rates. So his current forecast of base rates staying below 1% for 5 years is perhaps more credible than many believe.

However, Capital Economics have an absolutely atrocious record of house price prediction.

One more time with the Capital Economics house price forecast history.....

The evidence says they have consistently been as wrong as it's possible to get.

BBC December 2002 - Capital Economics warned that the UK property market was severely overvalued, and that prices could fall by up to 30% over the next few years.

BBC October 2003 - House prices are set to fall by 20% in the next 18 months, a leading economics firm predicts. - Capital Economics argues that central banks in both the US and UK have fuelled the housing bubble by keeping interest rates deliberately low, and house prices are now at "dangerously high levels." It predicts that average house prices will fall from £135,000 in 2004 to below £110,000 in 2007, before beginning a more gradual recovery.

BBC September 2004 - Capital Economics is not predicting a sudden drop in prices, but a slow 20% grind lower over the next 2-3 years.

BBC May 2005 - Economic forecast group Capital Economics, which has predicted that house prices could fall, reiterated that the market had reached an "impasse", with buyers and sellers unable to agree on prices. "We expect the pace of the slowdown to pick up as the year progresses, in line with more gloomy reports from surveyors and housebuilders," Capital Economics said.

Independant Nov 2006 - Capital Economics Giving up on House Price Crash - Ed Stansfield, property economist at Capital Economics, said: "I cannot see 2006/2007 being the time we look back on and say 'yes, that was the start of the housing market crash'."

BBC April 2007 - Capital Economics Turns Bullish - Capital Economics, which in 2003 famously predicted that the UK was headed for house price falls of up to 20%, broadly agrees with Mr Boulger's upbeat analysis. "It gets to a stage when you can't keep saying a crash will happen while prices keep on rising," Ed Stansfield, analyst at Capital Economics, admits.

Gaurdian November 2007 - So, what are the experts saying about 2008? The bleakest assessment (if you are a homeowner, that is) comes from Capital Economics, which says it expects house prices across the country to fall by 3% during both 2008 and 2009.

(3% ? Is that all ? After years of forecasting 20 to 30% drops now Capital Economics is down to a absymally poor forecast of 3% per year for 2008 and 2009, AFTER house prices had already peaked and fallen ! )

Telegraph- November 2008 - "This housing market correction has already overtaken the 1990s crash and, with the economic slump deepening, it is set to get worse. Interest rate cuts will not be enough to stop the correction, nor slow the pace of house price declines. We expect house prices to fall a further 20pc in 2009," said Seema Shah, property economist at Capital Economics.

(and as we now know, prices rose in most of 2009 by a whopping 10% in the last 12 months)

The credentials make me think they might have half a chance of getting it right next time around.

Their track record makes me think they don't......:cool:

torontoboy45

the_flying_pig wrote: »

The problem with this little, "everyone has a vested interest" kidney stone of wisdom that you seem gush every now and then is that it overlooks the extent of vested interests. This is never more comical than when you blithely assume that any old market commentator or would-be upsizer has the same strength of VI as someone like Fergus Wilson [whose entire income and net worth are tied up in residential pwoperdee & who owes circa £100m secured against a huge, singularly undiversified, slice of it within a a radius of a few miles] or Stuey Law, whose entire income depends on persuading gullible idiots to spunk their life savings on ultra-low yield bricks & mortar.

If anything by far the strongest incentive that an outfit like Capital Economics has is to, if it can, get its forecasts right so that it can boast about having done so after the event [as per the 'credentials' page that I provided a link to above].




I don't know what you mean. The credentials make me think they might have half a chance of getting it right next time around.

eloquently put.

nollag2006

the_flying_pig wrote: »

...gullible idiots to spunk their life savings on ultra-low yield bricks & mortar.

If anything by far the strongest incentive that an outfit like Capital Economics has is to, if it can, get its forecasts right so that it can boast about having done so after the event

Is this the same CE who advised people that there was no crash coming in April 2007? Even I was out of the market then.

The only idiot willing to "spunk their life savings" in late 2007 on property were morons like carolt and and all the sheep following CE


:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

chucky

the_flying_pig wrote: »

If anything by far the strongest incentive that an outfit like Capital Economics has is to, if it can, get its forecasts right so that it can boast about having done so after the event

yes quite - they've been extremely successful in getting their predictions right. which planet do you live on because it's not exactly planet earth :rotfl:

chucky

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And that page does let us know that Bootle has an impressive record of forecasting interest rates. So his current forecast of base rates staying below 1% for 5 years is perhaps more credible than many believe.

However, Capital Economics have an absolutely atrocious record of house price prediction.

One more time with the Capital Economics house price forecast history.....

The evidence says they have consistently been as wrong as it's possible to get.

BBC December 2002 - Capital Economics warned that the UK property market was severely overvalued, and that prices could fall by up to 30% over the next few years.

BBC October 2003 - House prices are set to fall by 20% in the next 18 months, a leading economics firm predicts. - Capital Economics argues that central banks in both the US and UK have fuelled the housing bubble by keeping interest rates deliberately low, and house prices are now at "dangerously high levels." It predicts that average house prices will fall from £135,000 in 2004 to below £110,000 in 2007, before beginning a more gradual recovery.

BBC September 2004 - Capital Economics is not predicting a sudden drop in prices, but a slow 20% grind lower over the next 2-3 years.

BBC May 2005 - Economic forecast group Capital Economics, which has predicted that house prices could fall, reiterated that the market had reached an "impasse", with buyers and sellers unable to agree on prices. "We expect the pace of the slowdown to pick up as the year progresses, in line with more gloomy reports from surveyors and housebuilders," Capital Economics said.

Independant Nov 2006 - Capital Economics Giving up on House Price Crash - Ed Stansfield, property economist at Capital Economics, said: "I cannot see 2006/2007 being the time we look back on and say 'yes, that was the start of the housing market crash'."

BBC April 2007 - Capital Economics Turns Bullish - Capital Economics, which in 2003 famously predicted that the UK was headed for house price falls of up to 20%, broadly agrees with Mr Boulger's upbeat analysis. "It gets to a stage when you can't keep saying a crash will happen while prices keep on rising," Ed Stansfield, analyst at Capital Economics, admits.

Gaurdian November 2007 - So, what are the experts saying about 2008? The bleakest assessment (if you are a homeowner, that is) comes from Capital Economics, which says it expects house prices across the country to fall by 3% during both 2008 and 2009.

(3% ? Is that all ? After years of forecasting 20 to 30% drops now Capital Economics is down to a absymally poor forecast of 3% per year for 2008 and 2009, AFTER house prices had already peaked and fallen ! )

Telegraph- November 2008 - "This housing market correction has already overtaken the 1990s crash and, with the economic slump deepening, it is set to get worse. Interest rate cuts will not be enough to stop the correction, nor slow the pace of house price declines. We expect house prices to fall a further 20pc in 2009," said Seema Shah, property economist at Capital Economics.

(and as we now know, prices rose in most of 2009 by a whopping 10% in the last 12 months)

Their track record makes me think they don't......:cool:

i'm still waiting for flyingpigs reply to this - let's see how he squirms out of this one :rotfl:

Emy1501

Wasn't it the express that in 2006 said something along the lines of House prices would double within 10 years? I think I will give their predictions like C.E's predictions a miss!

Firey668

House prices here in Central London have kept on increasing over the last 3years!

Dirk_Rambo

Of course they have, that's because it wasn't british people buying them.