House Prices Tumble 6% in Scotland

worldtraveller

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Does anyone else think that house prices will have gone back up 6% in Aberdeen by the time this thread ends?

.....Nope!

IveSeenTheLight

rosa_luxembourg wrote: »

If you doubt these figures, you'd better take it up with the Registers of Scotland, not me.

Now, where's the seasonality?

You are making my point,
The flash data you are referring to does not relate to the monthly released figures which I have used in my graph.

Indeed Januaries released figure was £167,719
http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/local_authorities_jan_2010.pdf

Februaries released figures was £172,301
http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/localauthoritiesfeb2010.pdf

Neither correlate to the flash data you refer to as £177,633

So you see the flash data you wish me to update my graph with would be eroneous.

The flash data is only a synopsis and not the final actual data

IveSeenTheLight

worldtraveller wrote: »

Question now answered! What was your point exactly?

The question was not answered
I asked where the previous months flash data correlated to the released months data?
The answer is it doesn't.

Rosa Luxembourg said my graph was out of date, but it isn't, it uses the monthly released data which is correct to the latest releases.

That's my point

If you want to try to back up Rosa
Tell me which month the £177,633 refers to in the released monthly data
Here's a link to the released months.
http://www.ros.gov.uk/professional/eservices/land_property_data/lpd_stats.html

IveSeenTheLight

worldtraveller wrote: »

.....Nope!

I will bet you £10 to the charity of our choice that it does.
6% or more higher than by the time this thread finishes

worldtraveller

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I will bet you £10 to the charity of our choice that it does.
6% or more higher than by the time this thread finishes

I would take your bet, but threads have no definitive ending. If you are prepared to go along with end December, 2011 you have a bet!

What's more, I'll double it to £20, without any need for you to do the same, should prices not drop by 12%, or more by then.

IveSeenTheLight

worldtraveller wrote: »

I would take your bet, but threads have no definitive ending. If you are prepared to go along with end December, 2011 you have a bet!

Exactly, the thread has no definitive end (well the last post date) thus it would be easy to ressurect when prices rose 6%.

If you looked at the graph I compiled, it shows that properties have stagnated in Aberdeen for the last two years.
Some up, some down. Who's to say if this won;t happen for another year or so.

That said, the Aberdeen market has changed recently.
Two years ago, the market had changed and was showing more fixed price properties.
Here's a link where I showed the area I check was 23% of fixed priced properties
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=10525421&postcount=51
A quick check of the same area shows 7 properties out of 66 are fixed price (10%).

I'm also am in contact with a colleague who placed 8th out of 10 in a bid when he bid 6.8% above the valuation
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=30895185&postcount=18

These are just a couple of small indicators that the demand is picking up in Aberdeen.

worldtraveller

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Exactly, the thread has no definitive end (well the last post date) thus it would be easy to ressurect when prices rose 6%.

If you looked at the graph I compiled, it shows that properties have stagnated in Aberdeen for the last two years.
Some up, some down. Who's to say if this won;t happen for another year or so.

That said, the Aberdeen market has changed recently.
Two years ago, the market had changed and was showing more fixed price properties.
Here's a link where I showed the area I check was 23% of fixed priced properties
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=10525421&postcount=51
A quick check of the same area shows 7 properties out of 66 are fixed price (10%).

I'm also am in contact with a colleague who placed 8th out of 10 in a bid when he bid 6.8% above the valuation
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=30895185&postcount=18

These are just a couple of small indicators that the demand is picking up in Aberdeen.

Yes, yes, yes! But are you taking the bet?

IveSeenTheLight

worldtraveller wrote: »

Yes, yes, yes! But are you taking the bet?

Let me get it straight: -

The bet is, that you think house prices in Aberdeen will drop by more than 12% by the end of Dec 2011.
If it does I pay out to the charity, if it doesn't then you pay out.

worldtraveller wrote:

What's more, I'll double it to £20, without any need for you to do the same, should prices not drop by 12%, or more by then.

We probably need to set some rules, like which figures to use.
Let me also peruse the data as the ROSEA doe not seasonally adjust the figures and therefore can be reflective.

Exocet

I don't know if anyone on this forum comes from Scotland, but that's tough luck on the falling house prices if they do. Pecker up the noo, as I think they like to say.

IveSeenTheLight

Exocet wrote: »

I don't know if anyone on this forum comes from Scotland, but that's tough luck on the falling house prices if they do. Pecker up the noo, as I think they like to say.

LOL.

There are a few of us Scot's in here.
Most I've seen have a good grasp on what's happening to house prices and the economy.