House Prices Tumble 6% in Scotland

rosa_luxembourg

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Those poor bears, clutching at straws over "real prices".....

Question for Rosa Luxembourg, or any other bear that cares to take it on.....

How does it help you, or disadvantage us, if houses get more expensive, AND the price of everything else gets EVEN MORE expensive..... Because that's all "real price" decreases achieve.

Without wage inflation, which you all claim isn't going to happen, you're in a worse position than today.;)

'Bear'? I'm no bear. I'm here for information, I don't have a 'position' which I'm wedded to. I don't want to see you 'disadvantaged', why do you think I do?

Likewise, where did you see me claim that wage inflation isn't going to happen?

Why do you feel it necissary to put words in my mouth, while avoiding the questions I pose? You may have some real points to make, but your manner's a bit of a turn-off.

My questions to you are genuine. Will your bet be adjusted for inflation, and if so, which measure?

Where is your evidence of seasonality in your home market?

rosa_luxembourg

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Ok, the bets on.
Even with the ROSEA figures not mix adjusting or catering for seasonal adjustments, I just don;t see the market dropping 12%.

Taking the latest released figures from
http://www.ros.gov.uk/professional/eservices/land_property_data/lpd_stats.html
The February figure is £172,301 for Aberdeen City.

If during any month between now and Dec 2011 the figure drops to £151,624 or less, then I'll pay up.

If not you do

To keep it simple, please make the payment out to Cancer Research

I think you and your teammate are very brave to take on bets like these, but then you do represent 'The Braif Toun' which has been put to the torch and sword at least twice in the past for the bloody-minded intransigence of the burghers. Bravery is so often a loincloth for suicidal recalcitrance.

This time round it's not covenanters vs. royalists or hanoverians vs. jacobites. And these days, of course, the swords and torches are the figurative analogues of bankruptcy and blight. A little flexibility would have saved your townsfolk from massacre in the past, perhaps the same would be true today.

see my sig.

IveSeenTheLight

rosa_luxembourg wrote: »

I don't believe any such thing.

You've made the mistake of thinking that I, like you, have a vested interest or position dependant on one outcome or another, and that this 'hope' is more like religious faith.

I've not made a mistake, I merely wished you to confirm what you thought the nominal house prices would do in question given your post 87 in which it wanted clarification that "real house prices" would be used instead of nominally.

The preposition for me said that you thought nominally they would rise but in real terms fall.

IveSeenTheLight

rosa_luxembourg wrote: »

I think you and your teammate

I don't have a "teammate" on here.
I merely state my views and back them up whenever possible with facts.

It's true that Hamish and I share some commonalities, but it stops there.

I'm all for counter debate and the inclusion of facts to back it up.
Far too often, there are not many facts provided to counter my thoughts.

I'm not sure who you are, but I do not wish to enter into a personal confrintation with you. Just happy to debate points raised.

rosa_luxembourg

Here's the very latest info for those placing bets on the Aberdeen market...

IveSeenTheLight

rosa_luxembourg wrote: »

Here's the very latest info for those placing bets on the Aberdeen market...

Again your looking at flash data and I see the current and previous figures have changed from your previous posting.

Guess what? It's flash data that does not cater for mix adjusting or seasonal adjustments.

It's hugely prone to variances depending on the type and quantity of properties sold.

You've still not admitted that these flash data you refer to does not align to the monthly released data.

Even the monthly data which I use is not mix adjusted or seasonally adjusted and is prone to "monthly noise"

Since your taking bets, how much have you placed on your march released monthly figure of £165,307.

rosa_luxembourg

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Again your looking at flash data and I see the current and previous figures have changed from your previous posting.

Guess what? It's flash data that does not cater for mix adjusting or seasonal adjustments.

It's hugely prone to variances depending on the type and quantity of properties sold.

You've still not admitted that these flash data you refer to does not align to the monthly released data.

Even the monthly data which I use is not mix adjusted or seasonally adjusted and is prone to "monthly noise"

Since your taking bets, how much have you placed on your march released monthly figure of £165,307.

I'm not taking bets - you are, but it looks like the March released monthly figure will be less than the £165,307 mentioned, doesn't it?

You've mentioned that the data is not seasonally adjusted, but I've looked at your graph, and the raw data on the RoS website that you use to draw it from, and I can find no evidence of seasonality in the average prices.

Where is the seasonality?

IveSeenTheLight

rosa_luxembourg wrote: »

I'm not taking bets - you are, but it looks like the March released monthly figure will be less than the £165,307 mentioned, doesn't it?

You're right, you declined to acknowledge my bet that your 28 day flash data will not match up with the released monthly data.
I understand why, because invariably they don't match.

It seems above you are also in agreement that the monthly released figures do not match the flash data.
Hence why you were incorrect to state my graph was out of date

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

We'll see if the March data when released matches your £165,307.
I bet it doesn't

rosa_luxembourg wrote: »

You've mentioned that the data is not seasonally adjusted, but I've looked at your graph, and the raw data on the RoS website that you use to draw it from, and I can find no evidence of seasonality in the average prices.

Where is the seasonality?

If you look at the data, invariably, Januaries average prices are lower than Decembers.
This is an indicator of seasonality in the prices
Check for yourself.
http://www.ros.gov.uk/professional/eservices/land_property_data/lpd_stats.html

IveSeenTheLight

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Ah an "amateur"

You have used the 28 day flash data.
When you look at that page it refers to the previous 28 days being £177,633.
Please enlighten us as to which month that refers to?
Here's the monthly releases again
http://www.ros.gov.uk/professional/eservices/land_property_data/lpd_stats.html

We'll see if the March data when released matches your £165,307.
I bet it doesn't

Here we are rosa.
The latest release from the Register of Scotland Executive Agency
http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/local%20authorities%20mar%202010.pdf

Aberdeen Mar 10 = £169,607 and not £165,307 as per your flash data or even the lower figures you announced (£157,994).

donaldtramp

Good grief is this thread still kicking about???

I stay in Aberdeen and I cant believe that there are people with nothing else to do but sit and watch figures on a weekly/monthly basis sit and pretend/brag that they are making money from the magical land that Aberdeen is supposed to exist in.

Give it up. It's very, very sad. In fact folks leave them to it.
They will be the ones who fall on their face long term. Mortgages last usually for 25 years, and 90% of North Sea production will be long gone by then.

As I have said before, the time is coming when there will be no Oil left and all the oil companies pack up and leave. Exactly the same thing that happens all over the globe when mined resources run out.
Tumbleweed and broken windows.

There is no point posting up actual production figures for the North Sea and decline curves. The little magical bubble protects some people from having to face reality.

I have tried,
Cue the desperate defence by people who know very little about the Oil industry on how Aberdeen is now a "global" supply base and it is now becoming a "centre of excellence" for green energy. Nonsense and double nonsense. Things are now being manufactured elsewhere far more cheaply than Aberdeen. As for the greenwash spouted by the local Council about green energy jobs.....I've been here before, only to see miserable defence posts of the 3 jobs that have been created.

Keep enjoying your delusions. When the oil runs out Aberdeen is TOAST. There is no money in sheep.