Technical definition of 'bulls' and 'bears'?

When_is_the_reset?

ninky wrote: »

i actually think correctly applied it doesn't refer to individuals at all but markets.

therefore a bull market is a time of increased investor confidence. a bear market represents decreased confidence. a savvy individual does not stick to one position (hence is neither a 'bull' nor a 'bear') but is rather aware that the markets fluctuate. just as the sun does not always shine nor the rain always fall house prices neither always fall nor always rise but respond to fluctuations. some forecasts will be more accurate than others. the skill comes in reading the signs and responding correctly not in a closed minded position of prices will go up or prices will go down.

some people seem to think they can effect the markets simply by shouting their position more loudly or cherry picking certain news stories over others. perhaps if they were chancellor it might have an effect but on an internet forum not a chance. it's quite sad really.

Thanks Ninky, this makes the most sense. From my point of view and after thinking about it - if house prices are falling then it is a bear market; if house prices are rising then it is a bull market. It is not the thoughts of an individual.

It seems, on here at least, people choose one or the other and then seek evidence to prove the other side wrong. The reason for their choice in the first place is the interesting part for me - it must be vested interest either way.

Anyone ever think that arguing this is a bit of a waste of time or do you think that one day you will convince everyone you were right?

lemonjelly

When_is_the_reset? wrote: »

Thanks Ninky, this makes the most sense. From my point of view and after thinking about it - if house prices are falling then it is a bear market; if house prices are rising then it is a bull market. It is not the thoughts of an individual.

It seems, on here at least, people choose one or the other and then seek evidence to prove the other side wrong. The reason for their choice in the first place is the interesting part for me - it must be vested interest either way.

Anyone ever think that arguing this is a bit of a waste of time or do you think that one day you will convince everyone you were right?

I made a post on cleavers thread which he has provided a link to which sums up my feelings.

Though on this thread, I think my contribution is a combination of the best giggle, & also probably the most accurate!;)

Conrad

Generali wrote: »

If you're not hung up on economics then a forum dedicated to economics and house prices seems to be a strange place to post and you are a reasonably prolific poster I think.

I'm very interested in economics and politics, my neighbours laugh and my lust for news and politics.

At the same time I dont make life decisions in the shadow cast by every potential downside. There comes a point where you balance all the risks and get on with it, and stop fretting about buying at the 'perfect' moment, I mean, who gives a !!!!!! - whats say a £20k saving over 40- years - £1.36 per day.

Cleaver

When_is_the_reset? wrote: »

Anyone ever think that arguing this is a bit of a waste of time or do you think that one day you will convince everyone you were right?

I feel that I learn quite a bit from the people on here and the articles they point me towards. Some make me laugh, some I disagree with yet find interesting and some I genuinely learn something from. I've said before that there's a few posters I rarely agree with but always find their posts interesting and make me think about my views. I'm sure there are others like me who have their opinions changed, or at least altered, by other posters and the articles they post up.

I can't say I gain much from people who are always positive or always negative. I tend to mentally filter out their posts, as I they just say the same thing over and over and over.

Someone like nollag, for example, may as well just have one post: "I like rising house prices, they will always rise, bears are idiots, I own a BTL. Thank you and goodnight :T".

That would save him having to post again.

Jonbvn

I think I may be an open-opinionated nomad.

Really2

When_is_the_reset? wrote: »

Anyone ever think that arguing this is a bit of a waste of time or do you think that one day you will convince everyone you were right?

Yes and I am always right (well except for when I am wrong).:)

Cleaver

Jonbvn wrote: »

I think I may be an open-opinionated nomad.

I think I may be a Nomadic Open Opinionist who has a weird compulsion to try and understand Fixed Idealists and Avant Gardists.

Conrad

Cleaver wrote: »

Just out of pure curiousity, is there any poster who would self-identify themselves as the type described as a Fixed Idealist? I reckon I could come up with about 15 or 20 people on here who would slot fairly nicely in to that catagory.

Loved your main post above.

Fixed idealists - I tend to describe them as having robotised narrow reality tunnels which are almost impenitrable.
We all have a position on the fixed idealist scale (robotised auto-think) - for example people who claim curry is muck, without properly trying it, or those that are certain the music of thier teens was superior to now (obviously), or those that say they do not like sea swimming based on some arbitary mamalian childhood imprint withouit properly exploring thier processing.

It really does you so much good to at least try and have an open mind - you might just surprise yourself.

Conrad

Cleaver wrote: »

I'm sure there are others like me who have their opinions changed,

Do you think so. I recall this mantra that very few ever change thier minds, like the religious you mentioned above.

My secretary owns a steamer. Im a fan of steam cooked veg rather than boiled mush, yet despite 3 years of my reminding her she just will not even try it - I have a strong feeling many of us are narrow and fixed in this manner.

Cleaver

Conrad wrote: »

Do you think so. I recall this mantra that very few ever change thier minds, like the religious you mentioned above.

Look, there is a significant minority on here who will never, ever change their perspective or opinions. We all know that. Most of us will probably drift away and come back in 23 years to find Hamish still arguing with Brit about whether houses are affordable or not and whether prices really are going up or down.

But I think there are loads of people on here who change their mind on stuff. Maybe not on the really big stuff, but certainly on the little stuff. My perspective on house prices has changed loads since posting on here for the past two years. I still think, in the main, that house prices go up over time and I don't think that they'll be a 30% crash in the next couple of years. But I think this forum has made me less casual about buying a house. It's made me think a bit more about debt and about being careful when buying a place. It's made me think "hmmm, well what if...?".

Now, you have to be careful not to think 'what if...?' all the time, as you'll end up like some of the posters on here who are so risk averse and worst case scenario based that I can't see them spending more that £60 on shopping, let alone ever buying a house. But I'm a bit of an optimistic, everything will be okay, kinda chappy. So a bit of doom and gloom around me is a good thing, as it keeps my feet on the ground. Don't always agree with it, but at least it makes me think.