hpc going into meltdown.....

StevieJ

ILW wrote: »

I never saw it as a competition with winners and losers.

You may not, but that is what you are getting when you introduce market timing into the equation.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Wookster wrote: »

to support his argument (that house prices will only ever go up)?

Which would be nice and all, if that was actually my argument.

House prices won't rise above inflation forever. The trees don't grow to the sky, etc......

But they will rise above inflation as long as population/household formation keeps growing, and house building lags population/household formation growth.

There is, by the way, a theoretical cap on house prices before population stops growing. It is when the costs of renting for an adult lifetime become cheaper than the costs of buying. But as house prices today are around one third of that amount, we have a long way to go yet.;)

andykn

Harry_Powell wrote: »

I think this post from the HPC link really sums it up for me:

""Who's laughing now?"

Me for one, I've been far better off renting over the last five years and the excrement will hit the ventilation device soon.

What is soon? I expect house prices to fall 30 or 40% over the next three or four years. "

This guy has been waiting 5 years to buy a house already and is now looking forward to a further 3 or 4 years before he buys. I don't know his circumstances, so don't know if he simply can't afford to buy and has to wait or whether he can afford to buy but is holding out. Either of them is tragic in its own way.

It does back up my position that until sites such as this one and HPC vanish (i.e. when the UK loses its obsession with houses) we won't see a major crash. For every one hard-core HPCer who is holding out for 50% drops, there are 5 holding out for 30% drops, 10 holding out for 10% drops and 100 holding out until they see exactly the house style/design they want and are willing to pay asking price.

That poster, Bruce Banner, is a nasty paraniod bully and I think lives in Surrey so is lying as he is already tens of thousands of pounds down on 2005.

Not just a river in Africa...

Wookster

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It is when the costs of renting for an adult lifetime become cheaper than the costs of buying. But as house prices today are around one third of that amount, we have a long way to go yet.;)

That may be the case in some parts of the country, but it is not the case country wide and it depends how much deposit one is willing/ able to put down.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Wookster wrote: »

That may be the case in some parts of the country, but it is not the case country wide and it depends how much deposit one is willing/ able to put down.

True, but it is the case with the national average house price, and the national average rent. Local areas may vary, but not by much.

It's still only a third of the cost to buy as to rent for a lifetime. House prices have a long way to go yet.;)

Emy1501

Harry_Powell wrote: »

With people losing confidence in pensions and other investments and the government skimming more out of pension funds and changing the retirement goal posts, I can see more and more people looking at property as a safer bet. "It's an investment you get to enjoy every single day" as someone once said.

As a retirement stragety I can certainly see why people look at property. While we do have corrections, they're nothing like some stock market ones. The 'investment' is tangible and is unlikely to completely vanish (unlike some pension companies, pension funds or company shares), plus a lot more people understand investing in property than they understand the stock market. There are also decent tax incentives to invest in properties (mortgage interest rate relief on BTL and zero capital gains on own home). Plus the government have to protect property prices and home owners for political reasons (it isn't good press to see people evicted), something they refuse to do for shareholders and pension holders - remember Northern Rock, anyone who was holding those shares will get nothing... remember equitable life? Those pensions have lost the greater part of their money and are still fighting the government for compensation.

Let's also remember that very few people have final salary pensions or even company pensions at all anymore compared with the previous generation. Wih the upcoming squeeze on public service pensions and the crappy state pensions we have in the UK, I can only see one way for property prices. up.

When my parent got into BTL in the 90's they invited a few of their friends to join in. At the time no one wanted to know. I'm sure if they were asking a couple of years ago it would have been a different story. As Buffett say be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Every Tom !!!!!! and Harry wants to invest in property at the moment and thats a bad sign for me. It the same for gold. Harrods are selling gold now as are all these companies advertising on TV. Says to me there is not much in it now.

The best investments are the ones people getting into before the herd follows. Even Mr Madoffs early clients would have done well out of him but the problems occured when the sheep decided to follow.

There was someone on TV from Barclays the the other day says that alot of clients were investing in property without doing any research and that there were much better opportunities out there than property.

As for your comment on NR. The last country to do QE and extra low interest rates still have prices lower than they were 25 years ago so whilst I expect property to make a return in 25 years its not a given certain as you seem to think

doire_2

People why are you biting? His post is just nonsense.

nollag2006

doire wrote: »

People why are you biting? His post is just nonsense.

You used to have a lovely signature about house prices being down 40%. What ever happened to that???

ess0two

nollag2006 wrote: »

You used to have a lovely signature about house prices being down 40%. What ever happened to that???

So last year, a sig like that

DaddyBear

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

House prices have a long way to go yet.;)

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

so have interest rates.
:eek::eek::eek: