hpc going into meltdown.....

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

But overall, I am sensing a new reality setting in amongst a large number of the bears. A grudging acceptance that they have lost..

Lost what?

Most of us are not playing a game here.

Pobby

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Lost what?

Most of us are not playing a game here.

I know Graham. Sad really.

treliac

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

On top of the other threads posted about in the last 24 hours, here's two more.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=139985

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=139959

:beer:

A sudden outbreak of reality has set in over there.

Wonder how long before the hive mind regains control?:rotfl:

Why the links to another forum? They are [STRIKE]arguing[/STRIKE] discussing.... just like people discuss over here. Is there a point to be made?

ILW

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Fair enough. You can buy a lot of Beer and BBQ with a mortgage payment.

Perhaps not the most responsible long term plan though, as buying is almost always cheaper than renting over any time frame longer than a few years. Seem to recall a fair few articles discussing rents increasing in Aus lately as well, not to mention the ongoing HPI due to population increase, now above previous peak in fact.

But overall, I am sensing a new reality setting in amongst a large number of the bears. A grudging acceptance that they have lost.

The powers that be went for the "nuclear option" rather than abandoning the economy to the next great depression as the bears wanted.



And it worked.

Disaster was averted. Recovery is ongoing. The crash is over.....

I never saw it as a competition with winners and losers.

smamst

treliac wrote: »

Why the links to another forum? They are [STRIKE]arguing[/STRIKE] discussing.... just like people discuss over here. Is there a point to be made?

Seems to me pure desperation from Hamish. I suspect even he knows what is coming but is just trying to keep his spirits up. Bless him/her the poor sod.

Harry_Powell

I think this post from the HPC link really sums it up for me:

""Who's laughing now?"

Me for one, I've been far better off renting over the last five years and the excrement will hit the ventilation device soon.

What is soon? I expect house prices to fall 30 or 40% over the next three or four years. "

This guy has been waiting 5 years to buy a house already and is now looking forward to a further 3 or 4 years before he buys. I don't know his circumstances, so don't know if he simply can't afford to buy and has to wait or whether he can afford to buy but is holding out. Either of them is tragic in its own way.

It does back up my position that until sites such as this one and HPC vanish (i.e. when the UK loses its obsession with houses) we won't see a major crash. For every one hard-core HPCer who is holding out for 50% drops, there are 5 holding out for 30% drops, 10 holding out for 10% drops and 100 holding out until they see exactly the house style/design they want and are willing to pay asking price.

Emy1501

It does back up my position that until sites such as this one and HPC vanish (i.e. when the UK loses its obsession with houses) we won't see a major crash. For every one hard-core HPCer who is holding out for 50% drops, there are 5 holding out for 30% drops, 10 holding out for 10% drops and 100 holding out until they see exactly the house style/design they want and are willing to pay asking price.

These types of site will never disappear unless we see a Dot com style crash and the confidence in seeing a house as an investment disappears.

The reality is more and more people are buying a house as an investment rather than somewhere to live and pass on when they die therefore fluctuations in prices means alot more to the many than it did in the late 80's & 90's. Back then a crash only affected someone if they had to sell ie relocation debt etc which was a small amount.

Over years to come more and more people will need to sell to fund retirement etc so the prices property will for some always be important as most cannot time retirement to coincide with the top of any market etc.

System

Hamish is going to need a new net and bigger boat at this rate.

Wookster

Am I the only one who thinks its a bit desperate for hamish to post threads of people allegedly changing their minds to support his argument (that house prices will only ever go up)?

Harry_Powell

Emy1501 wrote: »

These types of site will never disappear unless we see a Dot com style crash and the confidence in seeing a house as an investment disappears.

The reality is more and more people are buying a house as an investment rather than somewhere to live and pass on when they die therefore fluctuations in prices means alot more to the many than it did in the late 80's & 90's. Back then a crash only affected someone if they had to sell ie relocation debt etc which was a small amount.

Over years to come more and more people will need to sell to fund retirement etc so the prices property will for some always be important as most cannot time retirement to coincide with the top of any market etc.

With people losing confidence in pensions and other investments and the government skimming more out of pension funds and changing the retirement goal posts, I can see more and more people looking at property as a safer bet. "It's an investment you get to enjoy every single day" as someone once said.

As a retirement stragety I can certainly see why people look at property. While we do have corrections, they're nothing like some stock market ones. The 'investment' is tangible and is unlikely to completely vanish (unlike some pension companies, pension funds or company shares), plus a lot more people understand investing in property than they understand the stock market. There are also decent tax incentives to invest in properties (mortgage interest rate relief on BTL and zero capital gains on own home). Plus the government have to protect property prices and home owners for political reasons (it isn't good press to see people evicted), something they refuse to do for shareholders and pension holders - remember Northern Rock, anyone who was holding those shares will get nothing... remember equitable life? Those pensions have lost the greater part of their money and are still fighting the government for compensation.

Let's also remember that very few people have final salary pensions or even company pensions at all anymore compared with the previous generation. Wih the upcoming squeeze on public service pensions and the crappy state pensions we have in the UK, I can only see one way for property prices. up.