Is the Recession over then ???

phil_b_2

Cleaver wrote: »

To be fair, the government printing up £2 billion and using it in part to stop the entire banking system going under probably helped in you not noticing things as much.

Was it only 2 billion? I thought a lot more.

Anyway, you're right obviously, the goverments actions helped. Regardless of that though I didnt notice anything so whatever actions that were taken have worked a treat in my small world.

I guess, for me as one individual, the government have done a great job and I should probably vote labour for that reason... whether or not I will continue to not notice what happened as the years roll on is another thing. I'd say I'm unlikely to, but that is also largely to do with the fact i'm the type of person who doesnt notice much unless it comes up and slaps him in the face. i.e if I dont need to notice it or do anything about it, I wont. Life is easier that way!

fc123

Graham_Devon wrote: »

How long have people been saying prices will go up though?

I remember it around 2000, when Amazon started getting bigger. "Amazon will take over the country" people said.

The shops are still here.

How many have said Tesco's are too big, a cartel, and could take over the country? Walmart is huge, but hasn't taken over the country. People still shop in other shops. There are still other supermarkets.

Mail order companies a few decades ago were seen as the end of the high street, yet the high street is still there.

Online DVD rental will see the end of highstreet rentals. Blockbusters is still there (sure, it's taken over independants, but that was more to do with the price of rentals to these places from the movie stuidos rather than being pushed out).

TV shopping was seen as the big thing by some poor deluded people, remember talking about it in my business studies. High streets still there.

There is always something new around the corner. People said e-mail will have the royal mail shut down.....yet royal mail throughput has gone up. People said mobile phones will take over socialising. Yet we have just gone through the biggest period I think we have ever known where socialising was THE thing to do, highstreets taken over by wine bars, bars, clubs.

Personally, I think it's just a process of moving on in the world. Today's internet sales may be taken over by something else in the next decade.

It's like vinyl records....theres something far more convinient, but will vinyl dissapear!?

It doesn't happen overnight though....could take 20 years.

The Long Tail by Chris Anderson summed it up for me perfectly. There is always a demand for niche products and the web has enabled them to reach a huge customer base.
My SE London High St is very different to when I was a kid and for my dad as he grew up there. The old gas board is a pizza restaurant and the pub my grandad drank in before the war and up until he moved to the seaside in the 70's is finally shut after being a thriving place for 80 odd years.

The shops are still there.........Amazon killed off Borders but the change in RRP on book prices killed of most indie book shops. However, loads now sell via Amazon.


The world of free is his new book and I have to read that as also going to affect many in the future. Liz Jones may not be able to charge so much for her writing s in the future.

treliac

fc123 wrote: »

Liz Jones may not be able to charge so much for her writing s in the future.

I am curious as to why Liz Jones is of so much interest? :think:

Is there any particular reason why Liz is more interesting than any other journalist?

fc123

treliac wrote: »

I am curious as to why Liz Jones is of so much interest? :think:

Is there any particular reason why Liz is more interesting than any other journalist?

Not really....just keeping on topic.:D

I have a whole list of writesr I am more interested in reading but they don't write anything on topic to this board.


She's a good example of someone who does a job and get's paid a huge amount via the old system whereas now anyone can set up a blog and a few have become really successful from the blog becoming a book and so on.

dopester

nearlynew wrote: »

Owing to the huge increase in property prices, these massive companies have been able to outbid smaller shops for the best retail space. And then using their muscle have closed them down.

It is nothing less than corporate imperialism and has led to almost every high street in the country looking more or less the same.

I don't call that progress and will be glad to see the back of it.

Individual choice must come into it. I've never been had any beverage or food from a Costa Coffee, Coffee Republic or Starbucks.

We had 2 coffees and 2 omelettes for £10.50 at some pretty plush new cafe restaurant a few weeks ago. It had only opened recently, in a village shop which had been up To Let for quite a while. Open kitchen at the back with about 5 chefs. Reasonably full. They'd just finished the lunchtime menu proper, and it was snack food only. Quality furnishings, lighting and cutlery/plates and all that - with top service. I thought it was great value. My treat, given we'd walked down to that area having dropped the car of for an MOT (£27 half price offer - passed). There was a Costa Coffee across the way, but chains don't take my fancy. Individual choice.

Also the £180 billion odd the Government/BoE have magicked QE'd into existance, + interest rates at historic lows to prevent the HPI and debt junkies from getting too badly hurt, leading to others having their assets devalued, is probably deluding a lot of people that everything is hunky dory.





And of course the UK base rate is now at 0.5%.

lostinrates

re starbaucks/costas:

no one rural replying here?

The new rural business plan seems to be to open on an out of town with a supermarket. litle/no competition, people have to come from a long way round. Towns are not other wise ''big enough'' to support a starbucks/costa.

also rcession: yes, we've noticed it: dh's pay has gone up, as contracted, but the bands have had pay freezes. This seems fair an appropriate within his industry. A few of his peers in other firms, made redundant, have persued other careers. we have friends who spent tens of thousands on their education, and are working as odd job gardeners.

why is the future-imminent model here so different to say, france and Italy ATM, where shops, independents, small sized grocery chains etc: are still so well supported? I like local shops. Our local indpendant supermarket just became a co-op)

treliac

dopester, I can't quite work it out..... is that you in your avatar, or David Cameron?

vivatifosi

I know the answer to that one Tre! Dopester's used the new Labour party poster as his avatar. It's supposed to be David Cameron crossed with Philip Glenister's character from Ashes to Ashes and questions whether we really trust him not to take us back to the 1980s. Quite a clever ad.

tomterm8

bo_drinker wrote: »

A long winded double dip then maybe ??

Not particularly, it's roughly two years quicker than the gap between 1974-5 and 1979-81. I don't think it's a double dip, as such, but linked recessions... that is, we are entering into a fiscal policy similar to what thatcher instituted in 1979, for many of the same reasons, and it will have much the same consequences.

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

That long???

The basis of my opinion is it takes 6 months for fiscal measures to start working through the system, from the point the cuts actually take place. So, if the torys get in and cut within a month of taking office, you'd start showing the effect in the statistics in 7 months of being elected. If labour cuts in november, 14 months time. But it takes quite a long time for cuts like this to feed through, so GDP will dip slightly, and then plummet in the quarters after that. I'd say a recession of around 5% of GDP over between 12 and 18 months would be typical.

Of course, this requires MPs to actually do what they say they will.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

tomterm8 wrote: »

The basis of my opinion is it takes 6 months for fiscal measures to start working through the system, from the point the cuts actually take place. So, if the torys get in and cut within a month of taking office, you'd start showing the effect in the statistics in 7 months of being elected. If labour cuts in november, 14 months time. But it takes quite a long time for cuts like this to feed through, so GDP will dip slightly, and then plummet in the quarters after that. I'd say a recession of around 5% of GDP over between 12 and 18 months would be typical.

Of course, this requires MPs to actually do what they say they will.

I made it max of 6 months from 2nd Quarter 2010..

But that is just a beginners guestimate.