Is the Recession over then ???

fc123

Going back to the Q in the OP, it would seem that empty, local shops are not a sign of recession nor full ones a sign that the recession is over, ....more a sign of changing times and consumer habits or town planning and new roads. The recession could have been a coincidence or the final tipping point?

20% of top rent paying retailers in financial trouble

Is the headline in Drapers trade paper. I have to quote as it's subscriber only now


Then the article continues

A fifth of the retailers that pay top rents of £100 per sq ft or more in UK retail parks are either in administration or subject to company voluntary arrangements.


According to a report by retail research agency Trevor Wood Associates in The Telegraph, some 20% of retailers paying top rental rates are in financial trouble, despite a 0.4% rise the total floor space occupied by retailers in 2009.

The report also issued a table of the top ten non-food retailers trading in retail parks measuring trading space rather than performance. Two retailers - DIY retailer B&Q and computer retailer PC World - decreased their total floor space in 2009, according to the report.
Two fashion retailers were included in the table, both of which increased space. Clothing retailer Matalan, came in at number four in the table and increased its space by 3%. Next, took the number seven spot, and increased its space by 8%.
Trevor Wood, founder of Trevor Wood Associates said: “By looking at the share of total retail park floor space over the past eight years, we can see the declining importance of the leading retail park tenants and the emergence of a growing number of new entrants to the retail warehouse market.”
The report follows an increase in the number of company voluntary arrangement (CVA) proposed by retailers including menswear group The Speciality Retail Group, which owns the Suits You chain, sports chain JJB | Sports and, last year, designer mini-chain Flannels.

So, to me this would read a change in how people buy things..........not that they are buying a lot less from the retail parks solely due to recession?

We used to buy heavy household stuff at retail parks as the parking was easy. Now more and more of us shop online. I have to get a few heavy items in July and, before, would have driven to one of these places to buy, now I will order online and get it delivered. Even my stepfather @ 77 buys online now and he admits, he would have said no 2 years ago.

Rents have dropped and more mass market clothing is moving into the space. Maybe some Zara Home stores later on (though they expand incredibly slowly) and then, maybe a further change as the whole mass market clothing thing implodes....in another 10 years time? I mean how many shirts does one person really need?

The quote below is from Trendhunter and deff sums up the attitude of a lot of young people I know (son and mates etc) and, in a world of masses of cheap stuff, it was going to happen at some point. Not for all as mass market will always have a huge customer base but the fact that they are trying to encroach on other markets (Tesco and £140 dresses for example) is very telling.

It's a problem when the big guys buy these reports and try to muscle in. They just don't 'get' it and when they pull out how much did they destroy trying it out?

Implications - Exclusivity remains at the top of what is appealing and sexy in the minds of consumers, despite the recession. They want to feel as if they are a part of a select elite group, even if it is only a temporary illusion. The more privileged a consumer feels for having access to a product or service, the more the added level of mystique will sell.

Exocet

Maybe the technical recession is over, and most people didn't notice it. But if austerity feels like recession, then whoever wins the election, more of us will have some pain to come.

bo_drinker

Hey fc I went to Gloucester Quays (sp?) the other morning had an hr to kill waiting for van repair, still at least a third empty.
Every where you go it's the same.

Exocet

I was at an "End of the World" seminar last Thursday. They were spending money like there's no tomorrow.

fc123

bo_drinker wrote: »

Hey fc I went to Gloucester Quays (sp?) the other morning had an hr to kill waiting for van repair, still at least a third empty.
Every where you go it's the same.

It will take a while for the shopping centre type places to adjust the rents. They can't do it straight away as existing retailers get the hump.

I have a bad feeling that some of the oversupply in retail won't be filled for a long time, if ever.
It is difficult for it to become something else too.

I know someone in Swindon and her sales are extremely low for a shopping centre amd the rent is a lot less than her rateable value too.

I am in the south so to me, bluewater seems as busy and as full as ever, likewise Oxford St.

fc123

Exocet wrote: »

I was at an "End of the World" seminar last Thursday. They were spending money like there's no tomorrow.

:rotfl::rotfl:

Thrugelmir

fc123 wrote: »

It will take a while for the shopping centre type places to adjust the rents. They can't do it straight away as existing retailers get the hump.

I have a bad feeling that some of the oversupply in retail won't be filled for a long time, if ever.
It is difficult for it to become something else too.

I know someone in Swindon and her sales are extremely low for a shopping centre amd the rent is a lot less than her rateable value too.

I am in the south so to me, bluewater seems as busy and as full as ever, likewise Oxford St.

Its more to do with the way that retail parks, shopping centres etc get valued. As its the rent that determines the property value. So despite lots of property being empty the companies will not slash rental rates.

I've been talking to the Pru reference some light industrial units and there're not interested. Prefering to leave them empty than accept a lower rental yield.