Scottish house price drop.

bernard_shaw · 12 February 2010 at 12:20PM

Deleted_User wrote: »

Why is it considered to be 'boasting' to state facts about your circumstances when everyone on here does it?

I just think its 'bad form', a bit vulgar, that's all. Perhaps I'm old fashioned.

Deleted_User wrote: »

Is anyone that gives information about their circumstances boasting or only the people that make you green with envy?

I don't envy anyone. Now, I have revealed nothing of my personal circumstances on these boards, and have no intention of doing so, but...

Deleted_User wrote: »

To some poor homeless drunk anyone sober living in a tin shed could probably be seen to be boasting. Don't take it out on Hamish because you feel inadequate. It really infuriates me that because this site is called "MoneySavingExpert.com" that only the poor and debt ridden have a right to discuss their affairs in the forums. Those with money should be entitled to speak freely without being subjected to petty comments such as yours.

...your assumptions betray your own insecurities.

bernard_shaw · 12 February 2010 at 12:29PM

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

You've been put firmly back in your place by a number of posters on this thread.

And what 'place' do you think that is, then?

Here's me trying to cut through the spin and determine just exactly what position the Scottish housing market is in, and what are it's prospect in the coming couple of years, in the context of the wider Scottish economy. And here's you coming over all feudal.

Why's that?

Edit.

I'll apologise for saying you were 'boasting', if it'll make things better and get you back into the debate.

I would really like you to answer my questions. And why not comment on the points I've made about the size of the public sector in Scotland and the implications for the housing market of the pressure bearing down on it?

IveSeenTheLight · 12 February 2010 at 12:33PM

bernard_shaw wrote: »

I appreciate that you're providing advice based upon your opinions and assumptions. But your inferences about my motivations and circumstances are unwarranted.

I think you may be confusing my posts with another poster.
I only inferred that you were trying to say that house prices were in "real terms" reducing because of the inflation rate and I countered by saying that the "real term" was insignificant as it is the "actual cost" which will have to be paid out of a monthly salary which is significant.

I then asked if you thought that house prices therefore should be rising faster to meet the inflation rate which you have opted not to answer.

In relation to your motovation and circumstances, are you looking to buy in Scotland (Aberdeen)?

bernard_shaw wrote: »

Thanks for that.

So WRT to the OP, Scottish house prices are up 1.3% YoY. With RPIX inflation at 3.8% for the same period that's a drop for Scottish prices. (And Aberdeen.)

Much appreciated.

bernard_shaw · 12 February 2010 at 1:10PM

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I think you may be confusing my posts with another poster.
I only inferred that you were trying to say that house prices were in "real terms" reducing because of the inflation rate and I countered by saying that the "real term" was insignificant as it is the "actual cost" which will have to be paid out of a monthly salary which is significant.

Fair enough. Of course I'm aware that it's wage inflation that affects affordability. But, if prices are rising throughout the economy with no corresponding rise in wages, then affordability of all things decreases. I suppose what I'm pointing out by comparing the nominal rise in Scottish house prices with the inflation rate is that the proportional affordability (for outright cash purchase) of housing compared with a basket of goods is improving.

You are right to point out that absolute affordability of housing (both rent and mortgage) funded from wages is static or declining.

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I then asked if you thought that house prices therefore should be rising faster to meet the inflation rate which you have opted not to answer.

I don't think that there's an obligation on house prices to match any other indices in the economy. Maybe I'm misunderstanding exactly what it is you're asking. What do you think? Should house prices match inflation? How could this be arranged? Maybe house prices should match the hemline index? The suicide index? The slow song index?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/19/weekinreview/19lewin.html

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

In relation to your motovation and circumstances, are you looking to buy in Scotland (Aberdeen)?

The answer to that is 'maybe'. But not Aberdeen. Moray coast.
And Hamish is right, I want a 'cheapo house'. I don't think that there's anything wrong with that, any more than wanting a 'cheapo sandwich'. I don't know why he gets so upset about it.

IveSeenTheLight · 12 February 2010 at 1:22PM

bernard_shaw wrote: »

I don't think that there's an obligation on house prices to match any other indices in the economy. Maybe I'm misunderstanding exactly what it is you're asking.
What do you think?
Should house prices match inflation?
How could this be arranged?
Maybe house prices should match the hemline index?
The suicide index?
The slow song index?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/19/weekinreview/19lewin.html

hemline, suicide and slow song indexes are even more irrelevant so we'll leave them there if that's allright.

I asked you if you thought that house prices should follow the inflation rate as you were the one saying they were falling in real terms given that the rise was below the inflation rate.

"Should house prices match inflation? "
Long terms they probably do, or very close to it.
If you look at the Nationwide index, I recall the 30 year long term trend is 2.9%

"How could this be arranged?"
It doesn't need to, it's self regulating, in that house prices will reflect the number of properties for sale and the number of buyers who can afford to buy

IveSeenTheLight · 12 February 2010 at 1:25PM

bernard_shaw wrote: »

The answer to that is 'maybe'. But not Aberdeen. Moray coast.
And Hamish is right, I want a 'cheapo house'. I don't think that there's anything wrong with that, any more than wanting a 'cheapo sandwich'. I don't know why he gets so upset about it.

Maybe you need to concentrate on the Moray coast then.
I'm sure you'll find it's a different market than Aberdeen or Scotland as a whole.

I'm sure you'll also find that on average, the properties you will be looking at are already below the UK average.
Lucky you

IveSeenTheLight · 12 February 2010 at 1:30PM

bernard_shaw wrote: »

The answer to that is 'maybe'. But not Aberdeen. Moray coast.

dopester · 12 February 2010 at 1:38PM

mitchaa wrote: »

I have honestly given up looking at housing figures now even in Aberdeen. I was obsessed with them a year or so back, time for a step back I think. My home is my home and if its worth more this time next year then great, If not then ''Oh well'

What are your circumstances now then Mitchaa? Last I heard you'd accepted a (legally binding offer) on your own home. You'd come into some money and were half-thinking about renting... with an eye on later buying a more top end property at a lower price, but also were thinking of just buying such a new home immediately.

You're right.. you have changed. From 'made profit in this House Price crash'.. to posting up links to ridiculously priced Aberdeen property is some change indeed.

bernard_shaw · 12 February 2010 at 1:51PM

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Moray coast is a very wide area, but here are some options all under £100k.
Remember the saying though, you get what you pay for

Thanks for the linx.

But this is more the sort of thing I'll maybe be after:
http://www.solicitorsproperty.com/sps/m_showprop.php?propref=RR016124&solid=5

What d'ya think. Yea, a lot cheaper than comparable property in other parts of the country. Prices in Moray declined -0.4% in nominal terms through 2009. I can't see any mechanism which would push them up through 2010/11. Can you?

dopester · 12 February 2010 at 1:59PM

mitchaa wrote: »

Aberdeen does have very strong rental yields so makes it good for those fortunate to have more than 1 property.

However saying that, if you wanted to extend your BTL empire today, you would have to be bonkers to do so. In my opinion, there are far too many vastly overpriced properties in the city that I do not believe they offer much potential growth.

If you bought a second property at the right time.. maybe. It's when you buy, the price you pay, the debt level you take on.

As the great Bard once said 'two dwellings will cause thee problems thrice fold'.

Shakespeare should know, given that his own father was Mr Landlord for a good few years... before having his mortgaged homes repossessed. He over-extended himself with debt, was vulnerable when the bubble burst, and chased through the courts.. bailiffs at his own home, pursued for debt he owned for years.

Yield matters very little when capital values are about to be pulled into the deflationary vortex.

Debate House Prices

Scottish house price drop.

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