Scottish house price drop.

IveSeenTheLight

What has to be remembered is that monthly variations have quite a bit of noise, especially considering the volume of sales.

This is reflected in my graph above with you can see quite a number of "monthly spikes" (see aberdeenshire Jan 09 - Mar 09 as an example)

You can see from above that the area has relatively stagnated since 07 with some months slightly down and others slightly up.

come back and look at this in a few months time, when you see a trend in one direction, then it might have more weight

IveSeenTheLight

bernard_shaw wrote: »

From the same source (Registers of Scotland), on this page:

http://www.ros.gov.uk/public/news/latest_house_prices.html
text version:
http://www.ros.gov.uk/public/news/press_release_flash/28day.pdf

As I have tried to explain, there are numerous examples of "monthly spike noise"
This does not mean that properties on average magically jump or drop in price from month to month.


Look at Jan 09
http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/la_jan09.pdf
and compare with Feb 09
http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/la_feb_09.pdfAnd then again Mar 09
http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/la_mar_09.pdf

Did Aberdeenshire prices jump from £176,156 to £201,970 and then back to £180,391.
If so prices then rose 14.65% in Jan 09 and dropped 10.68% in February 09

Taking this into consideration, could this infer a possible seasonal trend?

bernard_shaw

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Statistical News Release from ROSEA
http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/V3_FINAL_%20ros%20Statistical%20Release%20Oct%20-%20Dec%202009.pdf

Thanks for that.

So WRT to the OP, Scottish house prices are up 1.3% YoY. With RPIX inflation at 3.8% for the same period that's a drop for Scottish prices. (And Aberdeen.)

Much appreciated.

bernard_shaw

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

As I have tried to explain, there are numerous examples of "monthly spike noise"
This does not mean that properties on average magically jump or drop in price from month to month.


Look at Jan 09
http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/la_jan09.pdf
and compare with Feb 09
http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/la_feb_09.pdfAnd then again Mar 09
http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/la_mar_09.pdf

Did Aberdeenshire prices jump from £176,156 to £201,970 and then back to £180,391.
If so prices then rose 14.65% in Jan 09 and dropped 10.68% in February 09

Taking this into consideration, could this infer a possible seasonal trend?

Thanks for all that too. Yes, I know. My reason for posting the pic showing the 10.3% 28-day decline is just to prove that very point. Some posters are keen to crow when the monthly figures show a spike up. I want a cheapo house, so I'm happy to post the reverses which inevitably balance these spikes.

doire_2

boomerangs wrote: »

Maybe house prices are plummeting because it's a cold, miserable dump and no decent person would want to live there.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

IveSeenTheLight

bernard_shaw wrote: »

Thanks for that.

So WRT to the OP, Scottish house prices are up 1.3% YoY. With RPIX inflation at 3.8% for the same period that's a drop for Scottish prices. (And Aberdeen.)

Much appreciated.

Hmmm, I'm not sure what benefit you achieve when relating to the RPIX.
Your trying to infer that property is worth less in real terms.
How does it work out when rent is factored in?

Property however is not bought in real terms and many on here are stating that the medium in which they buy property i.e. wages have been frozen and therefore hasn't the rise in scottish prices help to mitigate the RPIX level for those that have bought.
those that have not will have simply seen the prices increase

When it comes down to brass tacks the actual cost to buy a property has increased.

One final query, if RPIX is your measurement of what house prices should be tracking, would you believe that house prices should be rising higher than they are?

bernard_shaw

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Hmmm, I'm not sure what benefit you achieve when relating to the RPIX.
Your trying to infer that property is worth less in real terms.
How does it work out when rent is factored in?

Property however is not bought in real terms and many on here are stating that the medium in which they buy property i.e. wages have been frozen and therefore hasn't the rise in scottish prices help to mitigate the RPIX level for those that have bought.
those that have not will have simply seen the prices increase

When it comes down to brass tacks the actual cost to buy a property has increased.

Ok, I'll use CPI.

Scottish prices +1.3% YoY
CPI 2.9%

Therefore Scottish house prices are down in real terms.

FACT.

chucky

bernard_shaw wrote: »

Ok, I'll use CPI.

Scottish prices +1.3% YoY
CPI 2.9%

Therefore Scottish house prices are down in real terms.

FACT.

doesn't CPI include "Actual rentals for housing" but not mortgage costs?

you're not comparing apples and pineapples again are you Bernie?

i don't live in Scotland by the way

bernard_shaw

chucky wrote: »

doesn't CPI include "Actual rentals for housing" but not mortgage costs?

you're not comparing apples and pineapples again are you Bernie?

i don't live in Scotland by the way

Which inflation measure would you use to calculate the real rate of annual house price change?

chucky

bernard_shaw wrote: »

Which inflation measure would you use to calculate the real rate of annual house price change?

sorry to disappoint but... see my post

chucky wrote: »

i don't live in Scotland by the way