Scottish house price drop.

IveSeenTheLight

bernard_shaw wrote: »

Which inflation measure would you use to calculate the real rate of annual house price change?

It's irrelevant to measure inflation against house price rises.
As the properties have risen in actual terms, it is mitigating the real term loss you are trying to announce.
Therefore those that have already bought have not lost in your terms the same amount as those awaiting to buy

You want to talk facts

Scottish prices +1.3% YoY

Therefore it will actually cost someone on average to pay 1.3% more (plus rent for the year) than they did this time last year.
We can review this again next month

Mr.Brown_4

1.3% YOY. Thank heavens it wasn't a larger figure, we'd have gone to ten pages.

chucky

Mr.Brown wrote: »

1.3% YOY. Thank heavens it wasn't a larger figure, we'd have gone to ten pages.

my local area was much higher than yours - it was up 32.475687% YOY








i'm joking of course

bernard_shaw

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

It's irrelevant to measure inflation against house price rises.

?????
You'd better tell the Nationwide. And the ONS.

Seriously, tho. I suppose what I'm trying to do is point out that there's no longer any point for speculators to invest in residential property. Much better returns are available elsewhere.

With little capital growth in residential property and with rental yields plummeting below what you can get from a high st bank growth bond, it is not difficult to imagine hot money looking for a different home.

Similarly, FTB sentiment may look at this lackluster growth and decide that delay might pay, by taking the time to 'see what happens' and build a bigger deposit and secure a better mortgage deal. The election looms.

Nov / Dec would have been a good time to sell, that train is now leaving the station.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

bernard_shaw wrote: »

Seriously, tho. I suppose what I'm trying to do is point out that there's no longer any point for speculators to invest in residential property. Much better returns are available elsewhere.

No, what you're trying to do is impact sentiment, whether you believe what you write or not, in order to get a "cheapo house."

With little capital growth in residential property and with rental yields plummeting below what you can get from a high st bank growth bond, it is not difficult to imagine hot money looking for a different home.

As always you entirely miss the point.

1.3% capital growth, plus yields of between 3% and 8%, depending on property type and area.

At worst a 4.3% gross yield, at best closer to 10%.

Similarly, FTB sentiment may look at this lackluster growth and decide that delay might pay, by taking the time to 'see what happens' and build a bigger deposit and secure a better mortgage deal. The election looms.

Wait a minute..... Didn't you just post an article proclaiming mortgage rates would be rising soon????

Oh thats right, I forgot, it doesn't matter how many contradictions you post, so long as you can try to influence sentiment to get a "cheapo house".

Nov / Dec would have been a good time to sell, that train is now leaving the station.

Until the spring bounce starts again in what, 6 or 8 weeks?

:rotfl:

All aboard!!!!!!!!!

IveSeenTheLight

bernard_shaw wrote: »

?????
You'd better tell the Nationwide. And the ONS.

What have Nationwide and the ONS got to do with the inflation rate?
Neither are impacted by inflation

bernard_shaw wrote: »

?????
Seriously, tho. I suppose what I'm trying to do is point out that there's no longer any point for speculators to invest in residential property. Much better returns are available elsewhere.

With little capital growth in residential property and with rental yields plummeting below what you can get from a high st bank growth bond, it is not difficult to imagine hot money looking for a different home.

Your showing that you do not understand the market.
I'm an investor and I can tell you that rents are not plummeting in my area and if you wish to focus on rental yields, if their plummeting, it will be because the capital value is increasing.

Rental yield = Monthly Rent * 12 / Market Value

[QUOTE=bernard shaw;29808051Similarly, FTB sentiment may look at this lackluster growth and decide that delay might pay, by taking the time to 'see what happens' and build a bigger deposit and secure a better mortgage deal. The election looms.

Nov / Dec would have been a good time to sell, that train is now leaving the station.[/QUOTE]

You seem to be grasping at straws based on one months noise.
You must also be hoping that the winter dip which hasn't really materialised doesn't merge into the spring bounce.
Spring was such a long time in 2009 if referring to house prices

You say that a FTB may be better delaying to 'see what happens', well facually, you have shown that in Scotland anyway, they would be paying more than they did a year ago

IveSeenTheLight

Mr.Brown wrote: »

1.3% YOY. Thank heavens it wasn't a larger figure, we'd have gone to ten pages.

Mr Shaw was inferring that now is not a good time to buy, yet that 1.3% was seen in just the last 3 months

http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/V3_FINAL_%20ros%20Statistical%20Release%20Oct%20-%20Dec%202009.pdf

What would be the outcome of a 1.3% quarterly rise. It's a 5.3% annual rise. Much higher than the RPIX or CPI.
But to be fair that's speculation, it could be much higher or indeed lower;)

I would also consider that looking at the whole of Scotland average is not worthwhile, similar to looking at the LR average for England and Wales.
You really have to look at your local areas.
Scotland varied from East Lothian which was +10.4% to East Dumbartonshire at -11.8%.
So much better to look at your local specific markets

bernard_shaw

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

What have Nationwide and the ONS got to do with the inflation rate?

Both are involved in the production of indexes of 'real' house prices adjusted for inflation.

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Mr Shaw was inferring that now is not a good time to buy, yet that 1.3% was seen in just the last 3 months

Where do you see that, then? Certainly not in the reference you give.

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/V3_FINAL_%20ros%20Statistical%20Release%20Oct%20-%20Dec%202009.pdf

What would be the outcome of a 1.3% quarterly rise. It's a 5.3% annual rise. Much higher than the RPIX or CPI.

Look again at the reference you've provided from the ROSEA. The +1.3% is the annual rise.

IveSeenTheLight

I refer you back to the longer term results.
In Scotland property on average has stagnated over the last two years.
Much better to look at your local specific area.
In my opinion, you are better off buying than renting to 'wait and see' as what Scotland is seeing is stagnation, not drops that would negate rent during the same period.

bernard_shaw

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

1.3% capital growth, plus yields of between 3% and 8%, depending on property type and area.

At worst a 4.3% gross yield, at best closer to 10%.

...........

All aboard!!!!!!!!!

You often boast that you've lots of money. You provide a tempting prospectus for BTL property investment in your home market. You should follow your own advice and jump onboard. Why don't you do that?

Really, it's a serious question. What's stopping you from investing in this buoyant market with its 10% annual return? Maybe this dunghill is too ripe even for you to try to pick out that halfpenny?

We've also read you boasting that you went to a fee-paying school. Could be that property investment today would involve some very expensive lessons indeed!