New Year New Massive Job Cuts

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

julieq wrote: »

Why would it be exponentially higher?

The renters complain about BTL investors driving up prices, without realising that if only half the private rental stock were available, rental prices would have increased dramatically.

There's no such thing as a free lunch. If BTL had been discouraged, rents would be higher, savings of renters would be lower, renting would be as expensive as buying.

julieq

Dramatically isn't the same as exponentially. No need to dilute an argument with hyperbole. It is true though that amateur BTL landlords will be far less concerned with yield and margin than a professional landlord would be because they're looking less at income and more at picking up an asset at a subsidy.

stueyhants

If there was less BTL there would be less demand/competition for buying the housing in the first place, houses would be cheaper thus enabling more individuals to buy their own house. This would reduce the number of people wanting to rent in the private sector and hence the reduction in supply of private rented wouldn't be an issue. Surely its a zero sum game.


As for the UK and what do we do regarding our skill base. I take your point Julieq that we need to learn new skills and move with the times. However there will always be a % of the population that are not able to, either through lack of ability or access to eductation. We can either find them jobs they can do or we can pay them not to work. We need a mix of jobs rather than being reliant on any one industry or sector.

The UK has a competitive advantage against the likes of China and India on the value added stuff, this has come through education and experience. If China and India keep pumping millions through University each year how do you maintain that Gap. China is already starting to threaten the domiant aviation compaines Boeing and Airbus by developing their own medium sized aircraft. 20-30 years time they will have caught up and will not need to buy from the Western world.

ceridwen

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Why not? Why are we worth more than people in different countries with the same skills?

The market will determine pay.

We recently were recruiting for a position. 4 of the 6 candidates were taking pay cuts, they were happy to do so as its better to have a job than no job. One individual was down 30%.

The job market is changing. As people trade down.

Does that mean you are lining up yourself to take a new job at a "world market" rate of pay - rather than a British rate of pay?

If so - I would love to have your budget tips on just how one manages to live in Britain on Chinese wages....:rolleyes:

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

In actual fact, only around 10% of UK housing stock is in privae rental.

And half of that was in private rental before the credit availability of the last decade encouraged BTL.

Without BTL, there would be only half the rental property that is available today. And rents would be exponentially higher as a result.

The quality of private rented housing has improved hugely IMO since the advent of BTL.

Clearly there are still problems (eg security of tenure and contract enforcement for tenants) but it's far, far better than it was in the early 90s for tenants.

stueyhants

Does anyone produce statistics that look at the average wage against the average cost of living in countries ? Whilst people in developing countries earn less the cost of living is less as well. That said, looking at how much uneccessary stuff people in the west purchase I guess we still earn more relatively.

Conrad

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Letting our manufacturing base wither away. (Take a trip to the West Midlands). The world moves on.

Last time I checked Uk net income flows where at record highs. From memory that was early 2008 when outsourcing was already entrenched.

The reason they were so high? Because we owned huge swathes of plant located abroad.

We are in the process of regaining some manufacturing here in the UK, however the fundamental tructh as exemplified by this very forum is that people want a bargain and wont pay more for goods to be manufactured by a broomy. You just have to accept that reality and move on.

Im sure you would be the first to bragg aboput the bargains you bag and t rarely in your purchasing habits do you stop to pause about whether UK jobs have been lost abroad as a result of your buying chinese dvds.

This of course does not mean we cant relocate plant abraod and still hold onto the revenue streams.

Conrad

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Why not? Why are we worth more than people in different countries with the same skills?

The market will determine pay.

Exactly and that market is driven by MSE type purchasers that want products produced by a dollar a day Indonesians.

We cannot compete with that, and never will.

We can however own plant abroad, and also do the MANY things we are good at such as TV, documentaires, music, film specialists, building consultacy, defence, forensics, research, software development (gaming for example), ejector seats, high end pro music gear, owning mines, enviromental consultancy etc etc

Conrad

kabayiri wrote: »

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We are going to have regions which will lose their core employment.

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Many made claims in the 70's and 80's that Japan, HK, Taiwan, Korea et al would be runious for UK plc, yet we got a lot richer despite heamoraging masses of business to these upstarts.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

stueyhants wrote: »

If there was less BTL there would be less demand/competition for buying the housing in the first place, houses would be cheaper thus enabling more individuals to buy their own house. This would reduce the number of people wanting to rent in the private sector and hence the reduction in supply of private rented wouldn't be an issue. Surely its a zero sum game.
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I don't think it is a zero sum game.

The expansion of credit to BTL resulted in the stock of private rental houses doubling, from one million to two million. That had a significant downwards pressure on rental prices. But it only reduced owner occupied housing by a million, or roughly 5%, from 20 million to 19 million. This had far less of an impact on sales prices.

The only work I've seen on the subject, claimed the BTL expansion increased house prices by around 7%.

I'd be prepared to bet it decreased rents by vastly more than that. 10% yields were common a couple of decades ago. 5% yields are more typical today.