A New Type of Property Show on TV - "Britain's Empty Homes"

boomerangs

nollag2006 wrote: »

Oh dear !! I seem to have really upset them now

Oh well. Sometimes the truth hurts.

Your cack-handed attempts at trapping bears make even hamish seem sophisticated in comparison.

Your card is well and truly marked now. I'd get a new username and start again if I were you. LOL

toby3000

I saw this one, and I have to say they are stretching the definition of 'empty' somewhat, but I guess it's because the houses need to be morgagable and the buyers don't want to do much beyond redecorating before they move in...

There was a very successful scheme in Newcastle where the council sold off a street of house for 50p each, and offered grants to do them up. You had to have a certain amount to put towards the refurb, and you had to be an owner occupier and had to stay for a minimum amount of time. It was a win-win situation.

But at the end of the day, most houses that are empty are empty for good reasons- the area has an over supply of housing or they're uneconomic to repair. Of course there are cases where it's because the owner doesn't want to sell, and that's where the empty homes officer comes in.

The episode with the guy from Westminister was crazy though- some of the most expensive property in the world just sitting empty! Insane

StevieJ

Mr.Brown wrote: »

It was a bit lame though nollag. Everyone know property shows are for brain dead people with nothing better to do. The facts are that when property shows were at their peak, prices were crashing. It's to do with commisioning lag apparently. If they are coming back, then we are on the way down again. Sure thing, you read it here first.

That is not very nice, many people on this board seem to know the storyline of these shows, I didn't even know who Krusty was until I visited here

bernard_shaw

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The head of the empty homes agency has admnitted that 50% of the supposed million empty homes are only empty for 6 months or so for entirely normal reasons, like refurbishment, probate, etc.

Oh, so if they're empty for 'normal reasons', they're not empty then?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The number of homes for sale in the UK has fallen from 1.1 million pre crash, to just 650,000 today. We now also have RICS reporting record low levels of instructions for rental homes coming onto the market.

A declining supply of homes for sale, and homes to rent, yet at the same time population has grown by 400,000 people last year, and a similar amount the year before.

I've noticed that a lot of new-builds generate only one property listing per development, so the number of homes for sale could be larger than you say. But that's quibbling.

With "1 million empty homes", not counting homes for sale which are also empty, lets say half a million or so plus rental voids (that's what you property pro's call it, no?) there must actually be closer to 2 million empty homes in the UK. What do you say is the rate of household formation, again? What is that figure divided by 2 million?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Sorry, but your argument is clearly fallacious.

That's OK, no need to apologise. What argument do you think I'm making?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

bernard_shaw wrote: »

With "1 million empty homes", not counting homes for sale which are also empty,

Total red herring, and you know it.

If those "empty homes" are not available, because they are holiday homes, condemned, unfit for human habitation, disused, or just an abandoned wreck in the wrong place for todays needs, they may as well not exist.

They are utterly irrelevant to the supply and demand argument because they are not available.

What do you say is the rate of household formation, again?

The rate of additional household formation is 250,000 per year.

As prices have risen by 10% in the last 10 months, clearly the supply of available houses for sale is insufficient for current demand. This fact is inarguable.

And houses that are not available for sale obviously have no bearing on prices. Whether they are empty, full, disused, wrecks, in probate, rented out, being refurbished or even painted bright pink with lime green polka dots.... It's all irrelevant to supply and demand.

As you well know.

bernard_shaw

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

If those "empty homes" are not available, because they are holiday homes, condemned, unfit for human habitation, disused, or just an abandoned wreck in the wrong place for todays needs, they may as well not exist.

They are utterly irrelevant to the supply and demand argument because they are not available.

What supply and demand argument's that, then?

I remember arguing with you that supply was the total amount of housing and demand was the total amount of property. There being no homelessness crisis, it seems that supply and demand must be either balanced or in glut.

House prices, contrastingly, are a function of the supply of houses for sale vs. liquidity available for purchase.

With the increasing awareness that there are at least one million empty properties and a political imperative to bring those that can be to market, how do you think that the balance of that equation will change? Expect to hear a great deal more about adverse possession in the coming months.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The rate of additional household formation is 250,000 per year.
As prices have risen by 10% in the last 10 months, clearly the supply of available houses for sale is insufficient for current demand. This fact is inarguable.

Do you have a non-settlerwatch reference for that figure? I can't see it from a quick Google.

But anyway, it's a bit more nuanced than that, and you know it. Do you not acknowledge that the Brown/Darling/King extraordinary intervention measures have supported liquidity levels?

I think it is clear that special liquidity support has had an effect on the amount of money entering the housing market (demand). And at not inconsiderable risk: BoE's Andy Haldane's Doom Loop.

Moreover, studies show that affordability ratios affect household formation.
http://www.henley.reading.ac.uk/nmsruntime/saveasdialog.aspx?lID=12820
The current upswing in prices (which you point out) will have, in the absence of wage inflation, an adverse affect on affordability, and therefore, on household formation. Additionally, once special liquidity support is suspended and eventually withdrawn, the market clearing price will be subject only to downside risks.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And houses that are not available for sale obviously have no bearing on prices. Whether they are empty, full, disused, wrecks, in probate, rented out, being refurbished or even painted bright pink with lime green polka dots.... It's all irrelevant to supply and demand.

As you well know.

See above re adverse possession.