MSE News: UK economy out of recession – just

julieq

Spending money upfront to avoid a 2.5% increase is one of those lovely penny wise pound foolish ideas. If you look in the round there are costs associated with storage of stock and the cost of the money itself. Most businesses work hard to minimise stock holding, and most will be VAT registered anyway so it doesn't apply.

But even if it does, as soon as you spend the money it's come out of cold storage into the economy where it has a chance of being spent again. So it will stimulate. The thrift paradox points out that although one of the likely effects of economic trouble is that people save rather than spend, it's spending which fixes things.

We were never likely to see a massive leap into positive territory, but there is a marked improvement in export business over the past three months from the numbers I'm looking at from day to day.

Much of the payment is just starting to arrive, and there are tight spending constraints in business in the UK until we're confident the recovery is sustained and no-one clobbers the full year results. So we're easing our way into growth gradually, and as this happens the spending restraints will lift and the thrift paradox will unwind.

Good news for everyone really. I've no idea why the idea that the recession is ending is such a downer for the bears.

Mr.Brown_4

Bootski wrote: »

Just be careful what paper you'll read and channel you'll watch. Though that's always been the case - I ain't gonna read nor watch none of 'em anymore:cool:

I get all my news and economic information from this forum. There are a number of highly intelligent posters who have been telling me that house prices will go up and up, the recession isn't really so bad and the UK is well positioned to recover. Not that we need to recover, because we never failed in the first place. At first I wasn't so sure, but with the latest fantastic news today I can see they were right all along.

Just going off now to set up an ID on HPC so I can taunt them - it's what we do, those of us without girlfriends anyway.

julieq

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I need to meet a girl like you. Such optimism about such tiny growth.

I'm not sure you meant that to come out like it sounded Graham.

julieq

Mr.Brown wrote: »

I get all my news and economic information from this forum. There are a number of highly intelligent posters who have been telling me that house prices will go up and up, the recession isn't really so bad and the UK is well positioned to recover. Not that we need to recover, because we never failed in the first place. At first I wasn't so sure, but with the latest fantastic news today I can see they were right all along.

Just going off now to set up an ID on HPC so I can taunt them - it's what we do, those of us without girlfriends anyway.

It's like Mewbie never flounced off and pretended he couldn't post again,

Mr.Brown_4

julieq wrote: »

It's like Mewbie never flounced off and pretended he couldn't post again,

If only she had stayed and could celebrate this tremendous news.

0.1% - back of the net!!!

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

I'm not sure you meant that to come out like it sounded Graham.

It's come out?

I do apologise

Bootski

Mr.Brown wrote: »

I get all my news and economic information from this forum. There are a number of highly intelligent posters who have been telling me that house prices will go up and up, the recession isn't really so bad and the UK is well positioned to recover. Not that we need to recover, because we never failed in the first place. At first I wasn't so sure, but with the latest fantastic news today I can see they were right all along.

Just going off now to set up an ID on HPC so I can taunt them - it's what we do, those of us without girlfriends anyway.

Mr Brown! don't bother yourself taunting HPC. What's the point? Stay here and accommodate us instead!:T:o

sabretoothtigger

what was usa gdp last quarter

StevieJ

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

what was usa gdp last quarter

I think it was 4.6% annualized.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anvDy525cK74&pos=1

dopester

Just watched Alastair Darling on Newsnight (iplayer).

Everything to support over-extended businesses, bad-decisions, failures, the old-regime.

Interest rates at 400 year lows and hundreds of billions pumped in to stop the adjustment.

Alastair Darling:

And had we not done so, then I think you'd have seen unemployment would be higher, you'd have seen more repossessions, you'd have seen more business failures, as you saw in the 80s and 90s.

That is exactly what needed to happen, and still needs to happen... unless you're happy to stomp down hard on the prudent, the intelligent and wise money ready to invest at correct prices, and give new generations a shot at making a go of things.

Instead older generations are being protected, the old ways protected, values supported - when by now they should have gotten their savings/pensions/debt positions in order, to withstand the adjustment from the extreme boom. It can not be maintained. The forces of adjustment are just too powerful.

On the contrary, people feel and understand the bust as something bad and something terrible.. while in reality it is the exact opposite. The bust, what the bust does, is correct the previous mistakes in the boom.

BusinessCycles, Part 4 of 4 - The Austrian Bust, Prof. Krassimir Petrov
Google Video