UK Losing AAA rating...?...

Generali

chucky wrote: »

could you argue that the possibility of a AA corporate default is more likely than a AA sovereign default. surely sovereign debt is more secure?

IIRC according to the ratings agencies, AA Sovereign and Corporate debt have the same chance of default as each other. The higher probability of corporate default is measured by the fact that it is highly unusual for a company to be AAA rated.

Having said that, according to Wiki comparing municipal and corporate bonds, munis have a far lower rate of default at any given credit rating.

purch

could you argue that the possibility of a AA corporate default is more likely than a AA sovereign default

That is why sovereign debt is normally rated AAA.

AA rated debt should in all cases be equal, for the ratings to have any validity (and of course that is whole different story altogether :eek:)

Really2

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Dangerous to underestimate how feelings could erupt.

Danger to over estimate it too do you not think. At least under estimating it is believing the youth can act with logic and responsibility and are not just thugs.
You have a low opinion of the majority of the young in this country. (I presume)

30 years ago it was 3 generations out of work not just 20% of 1 generation. The good things about family is that they remember the past to help the future.

I am sure there are many parents helping their children so they don't turn to the violence some of the users of this board crave.

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Which is less likely to default or suspend interest payments, Tesco's corporate bonds or UK Gilts? Interesting question.......

best not ask the question in this forum then if i want a realistic real world answer then :rolleyes:

ps... not you purch and generali

kabayiri

Really2 wrote: »

Danger to over estimate it too do you not think. At least under estimating it is believing the youth can act with logic and responsibility and are not just thugs.
You have a low opinion of the majority of the young in this country. (I presume)

30 years ago it was 3 generations out of work not just 20% of 1 generation. The good things about family is that they remember the past to help the future.

I am sure there are many parents helping their children so they don't turn to the violence some of the users of this board crave.

You miss the newer forms of attack vector.

Earlier this Summer I was on a client site. There was a problematic outbreak of malicious software, affecting the windows side of the internal network.

Luckily, it wasn't disastrous, just disruptive on time and effort.

What was interesting was the likely point of infection. It was difficult to pin on the potential culprit, but it all pointed to a disgruntled ex-employee.

I work on security lockdowns, and if this attacker had more knowledge they could have certainly wreaked more damage.

How many disgruntled ex-employees might we have during 2010/2011? Quite a few I should imagine.

How many have access to potentially large sets of sensitive client data? Again, a fair number.

If corporations took a relaxed attitude to data security before, they might find a rude awakening.

Generali

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Which is less likely to default or suspend interest payments, Tesco's corporate bonds or UK Gilts? Interesting question.......

chucky wrote: »

best not ask the question in this forum then if i want a realistic real world answer then :rolleyes:

ps... not you purch and generali

Tesco has a credit rating of A3 with Moody's, the UK Government of AAA.

A3 means that there is no imminent risk of default but perhaps a long-term risk. Tesco buying up bits of RBS(?) I believe has harmed its credit rating to some degree.

Really2

kabayiri wrote: »

You miss the newer forms of attack vector.

Earlier this Summer I was on a client site. There was a problematic outbreak of malicious software, affecting the windows side of the internal network.

Luckily, it wasn't disastrous, just disruptive on time and effort.

What was interesting was the likely point of infection. It was difficult to pin on the potential culprit, but it all pointed to a disgruntled ex-employee.

I work on security lockdowns, and if this attacker had more knowledge they could have certainly wreaked more damage.

How many disgruntled ex-employees might we have during 2010/2011? Quite a few I should imagine.

How many have access to potentially large sets of sensitive client data? Again, a fair number.

If corporations took a relaxed attitude to data security before, they might find a rude awakening.

But the how may will be programmers and able to distribute malicious code.

That could happen any time not just now but how many people could or really want to take down a company and risk going to prison and never working in the computer industry again.

It is like a footballer deliberatly breaking his legs because he does not get a renewed contract.
You have to be fairly dense or self assured of your brilliance to even try pulling such a thing off.
It wont ever be mainstream as 99.99% of any people who lose their job will never have the skill set to pull off something like taking down a companies databases, but even if they do what about the back ups.

I don't think many corporations are at risk. It would be your SME's really.

Generali

Really2 wrote: »

But the how may will be programmers and able to distribute malicious code.

That could happen any time not just now but how many people could or really want to take down a company and risk going to prison and never working in the computer industry again.

It is like a footballer deliberatly breaking his legs because he does not get a renewed contract.
You have to be fairly dense or self assured of your brilliance to even try pulling such a thing off.
It wont ever be mainstream as 99.99% of any people who lose their job will never have the skill set to pull off something like taking down a companies databases, but even if they do what about the back ups.

It's amazing how lax some places are.

For example, I happen to know that my login and password from a bank I resigned from in 2004 are still active. A temp who was fired just before I left still has an active account too.

chucky

Generali wrote: »

It's amazing how lax some places are.

For example, I happen to know that my login and password from a bank I resigned from in 2004 are still active. A temp who was fired just before I left still has an active account too.

i'd agree with this - firms are more reactive with these issues instead of proactive. it will become even more apparent now - why spend your tight budget on stuff that may happen when you have more pressing issues to address.

i also agree with Really where not everyone is going to be doing it to cause problems for their employers or ex-employers.

kabayiri

Seriously, it's full of unknowns.

Payload delivery is easier than ever. Lots of malware now has transmission capability in it, to affect other nodes.

You don't have to be a programmer, just to know where to get hold of this stuff.

The interesting thing about the earlier episode was the difficulty in pinning it on an almost certain culprit, and the reluctance to make the incident public (which I do understand). I doubt the culprit even realised what effect it would have.

An emotionally disturbed ex-employee is not guaranteed to be rational

If you believe mainstream corporations to be unlikely targets, you should read some of the specialist press in this area, or go to one of the social hacker meets.