UK Losing AAA rating...?...

amcluesent

Moody’s warns of 'social unrest’ as sovereign debt spirals

Britain and other countries with fast-rising government debts must steel themselves for a year in which “social and political cohesiveness” is tested, Moody’s warned.

In a sombre report on the outlook for next year, the credit rating agency raised the prospect that future tax rises and spending cuts could trigger social unrest in a range of countries from the developing to the developed world.

Signalling that a fiscal crisis remains a possibility for a leading economy, it said that 2010 would be a “tumultuous year for sovereign debt issuers”.

I predict a riot! (please refer to previous posts with suggestions for hoarding food etc. etc.)

Really2

amcluesent wrote: »

I predict a riot! (please refer to previous posts with suggestions for hoarding food etc. etc.)

Britain ain't got it any more I can tell you. It is a different country to 20-30 years ago.

Look at why strikes are done now, hardly the same reasons as 30 years ago are they.

society is different, unless we see weekly football riots I am not going on the social unrest route.

For evidence look at the west ham pitch invasion and the age of the pitch invaders.
I bet some protested in the past (they were all late 30's - 50), the youth of today I think in majority realize rioting does f all other than hurt people and cost the governments even more money for repairs and policing.

On the food hoarding are you about to dump 50 ton of spam and beans on the market

I think social unrest in the developing world is likely as they will be rioting for things like the uk has done in the past 40 years. (fair pay etc.)

Generali

I guess the biggest problem with being downgraded a notch like that is that the UK Government would be forced to rein in spending quickly or face the likelihood of further downgrades.

Effectively, you lose control of fiscal policy.

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

could you argue that the possibility of a AA corporate default is more likely than a AA sovereign default. surely sovereign debt is more secure?

Which is less likely to default or suspend interest payments, Tesco's corporate bonds or UK Gilts? Interesting question.......

Thrugelmir

Really2 wrote: »

the youth of today I think in majority realize rioting does f all other than hurt people and cost the governments even more money for repairs and policing.

20% unemployment in the under 25's.

New generation, no nothing of the past. Only the issues they face.

Dangerous to underestimate how feelings could erupt.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Thrugelmir wrote: »

20% unemployment in the under 25's.

New generation, no nothing of the past. Only the issues they face.

Dangerous to underestimate how feelings could erupt.

But isn't that similar to the youth unemployment in previous recessions?

It is the young and least experienced who are always most vulnerable to recessions.

ManAtHome

But wasn't the umpty billion quid printing supposed to make this a lot less like previous recessions..?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

ManAtHome wrote: »

But wasn't the umpty billion quid printing supposed to make this a lot less like previous recessions..?

Actually, I think the umpty billion quid printing was supposed to stop financial armageddon and a repeat of the great depression. Which seems to be working.

ManAtHome

Nope - was supposed to keep interest rates on govt debt low and give the banksters the opportunity to blow a few more 'bubbles for bonuses' - as you say, seems to be working...

I thought bunging umpty billions at infrastructure projects was the standard 'get out of great depression' action (at least it was during the great depression - maybe "this time it's different" or something...).

HammerSmashedFace

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Actually, I think the umpty billion quid printing was supposed to stop financial armageddon and a repeat of the great depression. Which seems to be working.

It's not working at all, if this printing were to stop now, we would probably default, which to me is worse than when all this started.

And that's the rub isn't it ?, people are being fooled into thinking things are getting better, they aren't, the situation is barely treading water. It's not if we get screwed in the future, the question is only when.

14,000 homes repo'd in the last 3 months, that's with

QE.
Lowest IR's in 400 years.
Myriad of government schemes to defer mortgage interest.
State owned banks that are being pressurised not to repo. etc etc.............

And yet still rising house prices are cheered through all the government and media outlets It's all going to end in tears, only the timescale is really up for debate.