British Houses Headed for long term decline - Moneyweek.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Spartacus_Mills wrote: »

When you read stuff like this :-

"Because when capital economics say prices will fall, it is almost 100% guaranteed they will do the opposite.

Capital Economics have the WORST house price prediction record in the history of house price predictions."

This is wild-eyed nonsense with no facts to back it up. Just a case of playing the messenger rather than the message.

.

Oh really...... No facts to back it up, eh?

The evidence says they were as wrong as it's possible to get.....

BBC December 2002 - Capital Economics warned that the UK property market was severely overvalued, and that prices could fall by up to 30% over the next few years.

BBC October 2003 - House prices are set to fall by 20% in the next 18 months, a leading economics firm predicts. - Capital Economics argues that central banks in both the US and UK have fuelled the housing bubble by keeping interest rates deliberately low, and house prices are now at "dangerously high levels." It predicts that average house prices will fall from £135,000 in 2004 to below £110,000 in 2007, before beginning a more gradual recovery.

BBC September 2004 - Capital Economics is not predicting a sudden drop in prices, but a slow 20% grind lower over the next 2-3 years.

BBC May 2005 - Economic forecast group Capital Economics, which has predicted that house prices could fall, reiterated that the market had reached an "impasse", with buyers and sellers unable to agree on prices. "We expect the pace of the slowdown to pick up as the year progresses, in line with more gloomy reports from surveyors and housebuilders," Capital Economics said.

Independant Nov 2006 - Capital Economics Giving up on House Price Crash - Ed Stansfield, property economist at Capital Economics, said: "I cannot see 2006/2007 being the time we look back on and say 'yes, that was the start of the housing market crash'."

BBC April 2007 - Capital Economics Turns Bullish - Capital Economics, which in 2003 famously predicted that the UK was headed for house price falls of up to 20%, broadly agrees with Mr Boulger's upbeat analysis. "It gets to a stage when you can't keep saying a crash will happen while prices keep on rising," Ed Stansfield, analyst at Capital Economics, admits.

Gaurdian November 2007 - So, what are the experts saying about 2008? The bleakest assessment (if you are a homeowner, that is) comes from Capital Economics, which says it expects house prices across the country to fall by 3% during both 2008 and 2009.

(3% ? Is that all ? After years of forecasting 20 to 30% drops now Capital Economics is down to a absymally poor forecast of 3% per year for 2008 and 2009, AFTER house prices had already peaked and fallen ! )

Telegraph- November 2008 - "This housing market correction has already overtaken the 1990s crash and, with the economic slump deepening, it is set to get worse. Interest rate cuts will not be enough to stop the correction, nor slow the pace of house price declines. We expect house prices to fall a further 20pc in 2009," said Seema Shah, property economist at Capital Economics.

(and as we now know, prices rose in 2009 by a whopping 10% in the last 9 months)

Capital Economics are without a doubt the WORST forecasters in UK housing history.


Game, Set and Match to McTavish....:T

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

stueyhants wrote: »

I wonder how many other people have the same idea for their retirement. What do you think it will do to house prices if there are a significant number of people in the same position?

Haven't people had that same idea for a long time now?

Don't people die, divorce, downsize, move into retirement homes every year?

What makes you think more will do it in the year I do than in any other year?

By my admittedly rough calculations, I'll be doing it a few years before population hits 70 million and a couple of years before the peak of the next 18 year house price cycle is due. I'm flexible enough to do it earlier or later if the situation changes, but as it stands today the timing looks pretty good.

nollag2006

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Oh really...... No facts to back it up, eh?

The evidence says they were as wrong as it's possible to get.....

BBC December 2002 - Capital Economics warned that the UK property market was severely overvalued, and that prices could fall by up to 30% over the next few years.

BBC October 2003 - House prices are set to fall by 20% in the next 18 months, a leading economics firm predicts. - Capital Economics argues that central banks in both the US and UK have fuelled the housing bubble by keeping interest rates deliberately low, and house prices are now at "dangerously high levels." It predicts that average house prices will fall from £135,000 in 2004 to below £110,000 in 2007, before beginning a more gradual recovery.

BBC September 2004 - Capital Economics is not predicting a sudden drop in prices, but a slow 20% grind lower over the next 2-3 years.

BBC May 2005 - Economic forecast group Capital Economics, which has predicted that house prices could fall, reiterated that the market had reached an "impasse", with buyers and sellers unable to agree on prices. "We expect the pace of the slowdown to pick up as the year progresses, in line with more gloomy reports from surveyors and housebuilders," Capital Economics said.

Independant Nov 2006 - Capital Economics Giving up on House Price Crash - Ed Stansfield, property economist at Capital Economics, said: "I cannot see 2006/2007 being the time we look back on and say 'yes, that was the start of the housing market crash'."

BBC April 2007 - Capital Economics Turns Bullish - Capital Economics, which in 2003 famously predicted that the UK was headed for house price falls of up to 20%, broadly agrees with Mr Boulger's upbeat analysis. "It gets to a stage when you can't keep saying a crash will happen while prices keep on rising," Ed Stansfield, analyst at Capital Economics, admits.

Gaurdian November 2007 - So, what are the experts saying about 2008? The bleakest assessment (if you are a homeowner, that is) comes from Capital Economics, which says it expects house prices across the country to fall by 3% during both 2008 and 2009.

(3% ? Is that all ? After years of forecasting 20 to 30% drops now Capital Economics is down to a absymally poor forecast of 3% per year for 2008 and 2009, AFTER house prices had already peaked and fallen ! )

Telegraph- November 2008 - "This housing market correction has already overtaken the 1990s crash and, with the economic slump deepening, it is set to get worse. Interest rate cuts will not be enough to stop the correction, nor slow the pace of house price declines. We expect house prices to fall a further 20pc in 2009," said Seema Shah, property economist at Capital Economics.

(and as we now know, prices rose in 2009 by a whopping 10% in the last 9 months)

Capital Economics are without a doubt the WORST forecasters in UK housing history.


Game, Set and Match to McTavish....:T

Great quote there Hamish

I wonder is it possible to overlay a graph of actual house price rises with CE's forecasts.

They are predicting a 30% downturn in the short term, so we could be in for a HUGE boom

Shakethedisease

Don't people die, divorce, downsize, move into retirement homes every year?

What makes you think more will do it in the year I do than in any other year?

Probably because never before have so many people piled in in the last 7 years or so buying homes, left, right and centre as 'pensions' as opposed to just taking out pension plans ???

It's a recent phenomenon. Not something folks did previously.

MatteH

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Haven't people had that same idea for a long time now?

Don't people die, divorce, downsize, move into retirement homes every year?

What makes you think more will do it in the year I do than in any other year?

By my admittedly rough calculations, I'll be doing it a few years before population hits 70 million and a couple of years before the peak of the next 18 year house price cycle is due. I'm flexible enough to do it earlier or later if the situation changes, but as it stands today the timing looks pretty good.

This is verging on the absolutely hilarious.

Most people in their late 20's to early 30's that own, are struggling with a mortgage on very modest property. People who have the same if not better careers & earning power than their parents did, but due to high HPI have a much lower standard of housing. Quite often with couples both having to work full time, which wasn't that common when i was growing up in the 1980's.

With out a massive drop in real terms of the current average property value (like which happened due to periods of high inflation in wages throughout their parents lifetimes), how do you think these people will be able to buy the 4+ bed detached properties their parents own?.

If properties become cheaper in real terms, then what does that say about the value of your 'investment'?. The baby boom generation are in for a real shock when they all try to downsize!!!!. Personally, i expect to see the large 'boomer' properties lose around 40-50% of their current real value to enable the younger generation to trade up.

Maybe even without any more nominal drops in value, because i don't see the easy credit returning.

Spartacus_Mills

Graham_Devon wrote: »

LOL.

Sorry chucky, but those 2 highlighted bits in the middle of that mindless keyboard warrior nonsense really made me chuckle.

Cheers!

Yes, it was rather comical wasn't it, especially as he started it all with a woeful lack of understanding. I wonder if he sends angry letters to the editor of the Daily Mail about litter and the youth of today as well as being a keyboard warrior in his spare time.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

I love this forum with dimwits like Chucky for amusement.

TDS_2

Hamish, are you really 40 years old?!


lol

chucky

Spartacus_Mills wrote: »

I love this forum with dimwits like Chucky for amusement.

how's the STR going? think that you've still saved money.

what a loser!!

System

MatteH wrote: »

Most people in their late 20's to early 30's that own, are struggling with a mortgage on very modest property.

you what now?

Spartacus_Mills

chucky wrote: »

how's the STR going? think that you've still saved money.

what a loser!!

What are you burbling on about ?