British Houses Headed for long term decline - Moneyweek.

Spartacus_Mills

chucky wrote: »

a good post Spartacus - i agree with all of that.

Errr, thanks !!!!

FYI my position in the housing scheme of things, as you seem to be thinking I am an STR, is I bought my current property with a mortgage in 2001. I will have the mortgage paid off early next year - I have been doing adequately paid contract work all around the UK and using any spare monies to pay the debt down as I do not consider debt to be wealth but a burden.

I think home ownership is not a bad thing for people but houses are terribly overvalued at the moment and the risk is on the downside. So I have no STR fund and I have no vested interest in seeing massive falls in house prices although I do feel it necessary to bring some stability and equilibrium back to the market I also live in a nice area with nice neighbours and do not want, or need, to move up or trade down.

Lotus-eater

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

thats a good point thats missed by many imo. when you look at the hpi of the past its pretty obv that buying is a better deal than renting and if the hpi of the past is repeated in the future then that will continue to be the case imo

I think even if the previous hpi isn't applied to the market, then it's still preferable for most people to buy. Most people would be happy with increases in line with inflation. I'm totally convinced that 98% of the house buying public would still buy a house in these conditions.

Spartacus_Mills

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

thats a good point thats missed by many imo. when you look at the hpi of the past its pretty obv that buying is a better deal than renting and if the hpi of the past is repeated in the future then that will continue to be the case imo

The problem is that level of appreciation is unsustainable in the long term. You cannot have a situation where prices double every 7 years on an ongoing basis as it will end up pricing most people out of the market and to function the market needs new people to come in at the bottom.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Spartacus_Mills wrote: »

The problem is that level of appreciation is unsustainable in the long term. You cannot have a situation where prices double every 7 years on an ongoing basis as it will end up pricing most people out of the market and to function the market needs new people to come in at the bottom.

I didn't actually say the past and the future were the same tbf

chucky

Spartacus_Mills wrote: »

Errr, thanks !!!!

FYI my position in the housing scheme of things, as you seem to be thinking I am an STR, is I bought my current property with a mortgage in 2001. I will have the mortgage paid off early next year - I have been doing adequately paid contract work all around the UK and using any spare monies to pay the debt down as I do not consider debt to be wealth but a burden.

I think home ownership is not a bad thing for people but houses are terribly overvalued at the moment and the risk is on the downside. So I have no STR fund and I have no vested interest in seeing massive falls in house prices although I do feel it necessary to bring some stability and equilibrium back to the market I also live in a nice area with nice neighbours and do not want, or need, to move up or trade down.

no need to explain yourself on here Sparty... it's only an internet forum old chap. there's only a few on here that take themselves too seriously...

we don't have differing views, we also have a similar outlook and we have the same source of mortgage repayments. i'm London based, can't do with the travelling, too painful!!

it's the Hamish baiting that you seemed to start off yesterday - there's no need for it.

chucky

Spartacus_Mills wrote: »

The problem is that level of appreciation is unsustainable in the long term. You cannot have a situation where prices double every 7 years on an ongoing basis as it will end up pricing most people out of the market and to function the market needs new people to come in at the bottom.

i think you can - you then have to have a period of adjustment through inflation or even the lack of wage inflation or even the decrease of disposable income.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Lotus-eater wrote: »

I think even if the previous hpi isn't applied to the market, then it's still preferable for most people to buy. Most people would be happy with increases in line with inflation. I'm totally convinced that 98% of the house buying public would still buy a house in these conditions.

98% of the UK house buying public would buy a house if it was underwater and on top of a sewage plant imo

But I don't disagree with what you are saying

StevieJ

Spartacus_Mills wrote: »

Errr, thanks !!!!

FYI my position in the housing scheme of things, as you seem to be thinking I am an STR, is I bought my current property with a mortgage in 2001. I will have the mortgage paid off early next year - I have been doing adequately paid contract work all around the UK and using any spare monies to pay the debt down as I do not consider debt to be wealth but a burden.

I think home ownership is not a bad thing for people but houses are terribly overvalued at the moment and the risk is on the downside. So I have no STR fund and I have no vested interest in seeing massive falls in house prices although I do feel it necessary to bring some stability and equilibrium back to the market I also live in a nice area with nice neighbours and do not want, or need, to move up or trade down.

Just out of interest, who thinks debt is wealth it can be useful if you are currently borrowing at 0.5% to 1.5% and can achieve in excess of this on net of tax savings :beer:

the_ash_and_the_oak

who thinks debt is wealth?

Anyone whoever participated in the carry trade?

ukcarper

Spartacus_Mills wrote: »

The problem is that level of appreciation is unsustainable in the long term. You cannot have a situation where prices double every 7 years on an ongoing basis as it will end up pricing most people out of the market and to function the market needs new people to come in at the bottom.

Thats not the point if house prices only increased with inflation it would still be cheaper to buy than rent.

As I have said earlier my first house was aproxx 5.5x average salary in 1972 and is 7 may be 8x now thats doubled in 37 years not 7.