British Houses Headed for long term decline - Moneyweek.

ruggedtoast

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I almost stopped reading there.

Because when capital economics say prices will fall, it is almost 100% guaranteed they will do the opposite.

Capital Economics have the WORST house price prediction record in the history of house price predictions.

But then I read more, just for fun.....



They "may" buy back in??? !!!!!! else are they going to do, live in tents?

So lets get this clear, Moneyweek take a giant leap of faith to assume that a survey from an internet insurer regarding general intentions "implies" that a million boomers will sell their houses in the next 4 years, but only "may" buy back in.:eek:

No mention of how many elderly people would sell in a 4 year period anyway, no mention of the increase, no mention of the demand for houses, other than a statement half heartedly acknowledging an "alleged" shortgage of these very properties.

No mention of the peer reviewed published research compiled by Demographia and others identifying massive shortages, the UN population growth estimates, the ONS household growth estimates, or an attempt to analyse what will happen to the price of FTB properties if a million boomers suddenly buy them all.:rolleyes:

WOW. Staggering levels of journalistic incompetence. I can see why the hpc-ers love it.



In a nutshell, this doesn't even come close to anything resembling competent journalism,, let alone blow the amassed body of evidence to the contrary out of the water.:rolleyes:

So just to get this straight - ill informed articles pressing a particular point at the expense of factual veracity, which incorporate a high degree of wishful thinking over analysis - are only valid when you post them?

Anyway - changing the subject slightly - as a boomer Hamish - what are you going to do? You can't take your property empire (of one house) with you you know.

:A

adr0ck

i don't understand the 4th reason - its headline is

4. The supply of homes is set to surge

and then later in the article it basically states that the supply isn't going to surge but the amount of money in the housing market is going to decrease as baby boomers down size

having no effect whatsoever on the supply homes

so in effect there is only 3 reasons

Spartacus_Mills

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

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No they haven't. See post number 7.

You have hardly demolished anything, you have just applied your usual sneering disposition towards something with a view that is opposed to yours.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

ruggedtoast wrote: »

So just to get this straight - ill informed articles pressing a particular point at the expense of factual veracity, which incorporate a high degree of wishful thinking over analysis - are only valid when you post them?

Nice comeback.

Anyway - changing the subject slightly - as a boomer Hamish - what are you going to do? You can't take your property empire (of one house) with you you know.

:A

I'm not a boomer. Gen-X.....

My plan is simple. We currently have two houses, the first mortgage was paid off by the time I was 38, the second bought then and still has a mortgage. Due to low rates and overpayments, that mortgage will now be paid off a full 7 years early. (Thanks Merv!!! )

If rates rise from here but stay as low as forecast until 2014, the mortgage will be paid off 12 years early.:T

Our pensions are not huge, but healthy, and still have 25 years to go. We have other savings and investments at around the low 6 figures range as well. By paying off the mortgages early, we'll also add substantially to savings later on.

When we retire, I'll liquidate everything and buy a small flat overseas, live somewhere warm and cheap, but live well and spend the lot.

The last thing I want to do is die with a huge bank balance.

I'd rather convert that money into good times with friends and family, seeing the world, experiencing new things, and spoiling my wife rotten, which in fairness she deserves after putting up with me for all these years.

Spartacus_Mills

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Nice one sparticus.

Keep the optimists entertained falling over themselves laughing while the rest get on with other threads

Yes, I think the intention behind the posting of this article completely passed Hamish by :rotfl:

System

Nice counter arguments Hamish, enjoyed reading them, wonder if you'll get any reasoned debate back...

Spartacus_Mills

ruggedtoast wrote: »

So just to get this straight - ill informed articles pressing a particular point at the expense of factual veracity, which incorporate a high degree of wishful thinking over analysis - are only valid when you post them?

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

doire_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Nice comeback.



I'm not a boomer. Gen-X.....

My plan is simple. We currently have two houses, the first mortgage was paid off by the time I was 38, the second bought then and still has a mortgage. Due to low rates and overpayments, that mortgage will now be paid off a full 7 years early. (Thanks Merv!!! )

If rates rise from here but stay as low as forecast until 2014, the mortgage will be paid off 12 years early.:T

Our pensions are not huge, but healthy, and still have 25 years to go. We have other savings and investments at around the low 6 figures range as well. By paying off the mortgages early, we'll also add substantially to savings later on.

When we retire, I'll liquidate everything and buy a small flat overseas, live somewhere warm and cheap, but live well and spend the lot.

The last thing I want to do is die with a huge bank balance.

I'd rather convert that money into good times with friends and family, seeing the world, experiencing new things, and spoiling my wife rotten, which in fairness she deserves after putting up with me for all these years.

What if you get hit by a bus tomorrow?

Spartacus_Mills

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Nice counter arguments Hamish, enjoyed reading them, wonder if you'll get any reasoned debate back...

Only if he offers it in the first place.

When you read stuff like this :-

"Because when capital economics say prices will fall, it is almost 100% guaranteed they will do the opposite.

Capital Economics have the WORST house price prediction record in the history of house price predictions."

This is wild-eyed nonsense with no facts to back it up. Just a case of playing the messenger rather than the message.

You know Hamish does not want to offer reasoned debate, he just wants to troll. That was why he was canned from HPC after all. Other Bulls are still there and still post and also get a very fair hearing.

Heyman_2

doire wrote: »

What if you get hit by a bus tomorrow?

I've notified abuse of this idle threat. :money: