House Waiting Lists between 10 and 33 YEARS

the_ash_and_the_oak

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Maybe you are considering this from a small local and need to open the considerations to the wider country.

Not everywhere has the same commute as you see in London

This is quite true imo - I do understand the need to 'escape the city' but the construction of lower population density housing estates is a big contributor to urban sprawl imo (and longer commutes with over-reliance on car) - feeling we will need to rethink this approach in the future (esp w regard to transportation)

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Emy1501 wrote: »

I simply to not see the supply and demand issues you see now banks are being sensible with credit and once QE stops and interest rates go bak to normal house prices will fall back in line as I say over the next 10 years or so in my opinion.

Then you entirely miss the point of the thread.

Let me simplify it....

Population will increase by around 10 million people in the next two decades. That will require around 4 million additional houses.

There is no way we will build 4 million houses. We are not even on track to build 2 million at the moment.

What do you think will happen to prices in this scenario?

If banks continue to ration funding through your so called "sensible lending", how do you propose we allocate supply?

Or are you trying to say the government will not let it happen? Or if they do, they'll magically make an extra 2 million houses appear with their magic pixie dust?

the_ash_and_the_oak

banks always ration funding - they have never done otherwise imo

PasturesNew

If people are having kids now ... just wonder where they'll live when they grow up.

All those families having 5, 6, 7, 8.... 12.

Maybe it's back living 6 to a room like in previous centuries.

There's a village just outside Cardiff: http://images.google.co.uk/images?hl=en&safe=off&um=1&sa=1&q=%22museum+of+welsh+life%22+&meta=&aq=f&oq=&start=0

They've bought up old houses from around Wales over the years and built them again, stone by stone, and you can go round and see inside them. There is information about each one inside them. In one there's a piece of furniture that looks like a chest, where their servant used to sleep in the living room (on the left: http://www.gtj.org.uk/storage/components/batch_2081/GTJ31452_1.jpg ); in another there was a "shelf" in the one-room (25'x15' or so) where the whole family, parents, kids and lodger, would sleep: http://www.gtj.org.uk/storage/components/batch_1104/GTJ31669_1.jpg

sjaypink

PasturesNew wrote: »

If people are having kids now ... just wonder where they'll live when they grow up.

All those families having 5, 6, 7, 8.... 12.

Maybe it's back living 6 to a room like in previous centuries.

There's a village just outside Cardiff: http://images.google.co.uk/images?hl=en&safe=off&um=1&sa=1&q=%22museum+of+welsh+life%22+&meta=&aq=f&oq=&start=0

They've bought up old houses from around Wales over the years and built them again, stone by stone, and you can go round and see inside them. There is information about each one inside them. In one there's a piece of furniture that looks like a chest, where their servant used to sleep in the living room (on the left: http://www.gtj.org.uk/storage/components/batch_2081/GTJ31452_1.jpg ); in another there was a "shelf" in the one-room (25'x15' or so) where the whole family, parents, kids and lodger, would sleep: http://www.gtj.org.uk/storage/components/batch_1104/GTJ31669_1.jpg

believe the average kids per family is still well under 2, so the bulk of the population increase is down to living longer...

so get the oldies out of the nice big old houses, and put them 6 to a room (in the nursing home converted from that unwanted block of new build luxury apartments ) problem solved

nearlynew

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Population will increase by around 10 million people in the next two decades.

Will it?

How could you possibly know that?


You really are a very silly boy McTittish.

Emy1501

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Then you entirely miss the point of the thread.

Let me simplify it....

Population will increase by around 10 million people in the next two decades. That will require around 4 million additional houses.

There is no way we will build 4 million houses. We are not even on track to build 2 million at the moment.

What do you think will happen to prices in this scenario?

If banks continue to ration funding through your so called "sensible lending", how do you propose we allocate supply?

Or are you trying to say the government will not let it happen? Or if they do, they'll magically make an extra 2 million houses appear with their magic pixie dust?

You are guessing that population will increase by 10million you are also guessing that 4m houses will need to be built. As I say I believe if the demand is needed the builders will build the houses and if not the government will get them built. At the moment the demand is not there and thats why they are not being built.

sjaypink

Emy1501 wrote: »

You are guessing that population will increase by 10million you are also guessing that 4m houses will need to be built. As I say I believe if the demand is needed the builders will build the houses and if not the government will get them built. At the moment the demand is not there and thats why they are not being built.

Just thought- I've missed out on a chance of a 'my story' rant here!

Round here, a fair amount of new builds are standing empty, some have remained unsold and unihabited for 2 years... quite a few developments have been sold to Housing Associations though (originally private build) as no-one else was interested in buying them...

...so yes there is huge demand- for affordable housing. A lot of new built property remains empty regardless of overall market demand... wonder how many properties are actually empty right now (no, i know its not really billions) ?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Emy1501 wrote: »

You are guessing that population will increase by 10million you are also guessing that 4m houses will need to be built.

That is not a guess, it's the latest prediction from the UK government ONS and is backed up by a seperate prediction from the United Nations.

I rather suspect they did a tad more research than picking random numbers out of a hat.:rolleyes:

As I say I believe if the demand is needed the builders will build the houses and if not the government will get them built. At the moment the demand is not there and thats why they are not being built.

They are not being built because of funding constraints.... The need for them is clear.

Last year, the population increased by 408,000 people. That is not a guess BTW, thats the official government figure. There were 252,000 ADDITIONAL households created last year. Also not a guess, an official government figure.

And just 80,000 houses built. So vacant housing stock had to decline last year by 132,000 units.

Heres a clue for you.... the government has been trying to get more houses built for some time now. They repeatedly warn of the shortage building up. They can't get it done due to local authority planning restrictions and NIMBY's.

But maybe they'll find some magic house providing pixie dust next year.... or the year after.... or the year after....:rolleyes:

the_ash_and_the_oak

I am in favour of greater planning regulations imo