House price drop indicates 'double-dip' for property market

the_ash_and_the_oak

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

Obvious is when you're approaching a the level crossing, the lights starts flashing, the barriers come down & you can see/hear it. Obvious is NOT when you have been smashed into several different pieces by the train.....

Then it had been obvious for some time that the level crossing was approaching but it was only obvious in aug 2007 that we had arrived there?

ie it was "obvious it was coming" in dec 2006 but this didn't prevent rises in march 2007? whereas the trigger of aug 2007 meant it was "obvious it was here. now"

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

fwiw I think speed camera penalties should double, I ride a bicycle and I like public sector workers (esp nurses)

fwiw, I think speed cameras should be scrapped, bicycles should be banned from roads, and at least half of public sector workers should replace foxes as suitable hunting prey on weekends.

But I also like nurses....

Emy1501

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Thought transaction figures were still high until like sept?

I don't always pay too much attention to data. I'm more into anecdotal evidence myself. There was always going to come at time where banks could not justify lending anymore money because the figures did not add up or people simply came to terms with prices were too high. In my experience that was spring 2007. Properties were still selling espcially high quality ones but at the turn of the year you could have sold a property on a roundabout. Agents did not even want a contract they were so confident they could sell in a week.

Maybe my area was not representative of the rest of the country or maybe there was a lot of properties on the market all I know is that spring 2007 things had changed in my area.

treliac

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

fwiw, I think speed cameras should be scrapped, bicycles should be banned from roads, and at least half of public sector workers should replace foxes as suitable hunting prey on weekends.

But I also like nurses....

And I doubt you're very cute Hamish.

System

treliac wrote: »

And I doubt you're very cute Hamish.

I always have a mental image of Groundskeeper Willy whenever I read a Hamish post

carolt

That's the first time I've ever had an urge to thank one of your posts, Joeskeppi.

So true.

Now you've pointed it out, I will be unable to read any of Hamish's posts in future without picturing Groundskeeper Willy.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Then it had been obvious for some time that the level crossing was approaching but it was only obvious in aug 2007 that we had arrived there?

ie it was "obvious it was coming" in dec 2006 but this didn't prevent rises in march 2007? whereas the trigger of aug 2007 meant it was "obvious it was here. now"

So you know the pre-history of this recession..

Well done.

So why bother arguing with someone that says it was "obvious" in early summer?

Anyone who didnt know what was coming in July 07 is either:

1: Stupid.
2: Listens to Government PR too much.
3: Isolates themselves from information.

the_ash_and_the_oak

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

So you know the pre-history of this recession..

Well done.

So why bother arguing with someone that says it was "obvious" in early summer?

Anyone who didnt know what was coming in July 07 is either:

1: Stupid.
2: Listens to Government PR too much.
3: Isolates themselves from information.

Thanks. Though imo there is a difference between the two following scenarios in July 2007 (or in the case of the poster above, spring 2007)

i) "I know its going to happen soon"
ii) "I know its going to happen...in August 2007"

1984ReturnsForReal_2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Thanks. Though imo there is a difference between the two following scenarios in July 2007 (or in the case of the poster above, spring 2007)

i) "I know its going to happen soon"
ii) "I know its going to happen...in August 2007"

Well isnt the point of "obvious" is you act on it to put yourself in a better position?

Your arguing for the sake of it.

Personally I think it was "obvious" May/June.

It was 100% confirmed to me in July.

the_ash_and_the_oak

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

Well isnt the point of "obvious" is you act on it to put yourself in a better position?

Your arguing for the sake of it.

Personally I think it was "obvious" May/June.

It was 100% confirmed to me in July.

I did put myself in a better position imo

I think it was obvious it was going to happen sometime soon for maybe a good year before it did, I don't think it was obvious it would happen rightaway during that period. At 3pm its obviously going to get dark soon, but it doesnt mean its dark at 3pm.

Why does this matter? Because earlier in the thread (when this came up) we were talking about whether one months figures have any importance - with an article suggesting that a drop in some index or other was significant. My argument was that a singles months figures are kinda noise - unless they follow a pretty big trigger - one that was obvious to all. imo that trigger didn't come until August 2007 - regardless of how long prior to that it there was going to be a trigger. The following months figures had significance and weren't noise imo