House price drop indicates 'double-dip' for property market

carolt

Apolgies if already posted anywhere:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2009/nov/13/house-price-fall-double-dip

"Property prices across Britain have gone into reverse for the first time in seven months, according to website FindaProperty , which today warned of a "growing risk of a double-dip housing recession."

It said that prices fell 0.5% month-on-month, in the first evidence that a mini-boom that started in London during spring may now be over."

phil_b_2

A tiny down after 7 months of strong ups and they are already talking about a second housing recession?

Getting giddy about little downs AND ups on a monthly basis seems like a waste of energy. Quarterly data would be a better indication of the direction of things.

Mr.Brown_4

phil_b wrote: »

A tiny down after 7 months of strong ups and they are already talking about a second housing recession?

Getting giddy about little downs AND ups on a monthly basis seems like a waste of energy. Quarterly data would be a better indication of the direction of things.

Its not so much the up / down amount, but the change of direction that is the real interest. It seems to have happened before the real financial pain of the next few years starts. Perhaps that much maligned bull trap is still to come. I expect there will be an official MSE news thread on it soon.

Degenerate

Well if it's come from the hugely respected industry oracle findaproperty.com, it must be true. Sod the Halliwide.

ess0two

Double dip......is'nt that something that happens in a porno:T

Cleaver

I mean this with no disrespect Carol, but it's really interesting to see articles posted on here that are either very biased in terms of positive news, and those that are written very much in a negative way. This one is the latter.

Property prices across Britain have gone into reverse for the first time in seven months, according to website FindaProperty , which today warned of a "growing risk of a double-dip housing recession."


It said that prices fell 0.5% month-on-month, in the first evidence that a mini-boom that started in London during spring may now be over.

If house prices had falled around 8% over a 8 or 9 month period, then the rose 0.5% in a month and a journo wrote that this showed "the first evidence of recovery" it would rightly be laughed at. So should this.

After seven months of sustained rises in house prices, we now see quite a sharp decline – with a thousand pounds slashed off the value of the average home.

It isn't a 'sharp decline'. It's a very slight decline. Stagnation really. And what's with the word 'slashed'?

The website, one of the UK's biggest property portals, said the average asking price sank to £218,654, from £219,658 last month.

A decline of £1,004 in a month, on something that is worth £219,000 is not really something sinking.

Look, I'm not saying the article is wrong. I wouldn't rule out major falls next year. Just interesting to see emotive language used in both positive and negative posts. I guess what we might see over the next 6 months is house prices not really doing a lot, hence a 0.6% decline seeing words like 'sank' in an article or a 0.2% rise seeing words like 'boom' being used. This article should have read that after a few months of rises house prices, asking prices have pretty much stayed the same this month. Lazy and sensationalist journalism.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Agree article is kinda silly (or at least the quotes you pulled from it there - don't read linked articles tbh - always think they're filled with words like soar, plummet, sank, and "on the rise")

Heyman_2

I can only echo everything Cleaver has said, only to add that most of the regulars on here who currently have a bull outlook are expecting drops/stagnation over the next few months.

So it's not a surprise. And certainly not an indication of a 'double-dip recession'.

Cleaver

Heyman wrote: »

I can only echo everything Cleaver has said, only to add that most of the regulars on here who currently have a bull outlook are expecting drops/stagnation over the next few months.

I should point out that I am currently in the 'don't have a clue outlook' camp. But I agree, the figures quoted in this article amount to a whole lot of nothing.

Graham_Devon

Well I for one am glad that article has been rubbished.

No doubt the next one showing drops will be soon too, just like the drop in asking prices thread was earlier

Cleaver

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Well I for one am glad that article has been rubbished.

No doubt the next one showing drops will be soon too, just like the drop in asking prices thread was earlier

Are you always this purposefully and deliberately obtuse?

If an article is well written, with decent analysis on proper figures, without the sensationalist journo lingo that Ash and the Oak pointed out, I'll welcome it and so would most on here. Regardless of what it concerns.

This article was trash and deserved to be rubbished. I'd do the same to an article that said that a 0.5% rise in asking prices after months of house price falls was evidence that we were 'booming' again, with houses 'selling like hot cakes'.