House price drop indicates 'double-dip' for property market

lynzpower

For heavens sake.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Mr.Brown wrote: »

Maybe this time there is less need for a trigger. Simply a running out of ammunition.

Maybe! more likely imo - but this implies a turn to be less dramatic - and less obvious. Also without a trigger its not obvious at the time and you can end up looking at slight drops each month thinking "this is it! see!" while if there is a trigger - its just obvious - a turn in Aug/Sep 2007 - one months figures weren't noise then - it was just obvious - before any figures had even come in

or to put it another way - without an event right now to precipitate - why now? why not feb? or june? why is this particular 0.5% the one?

Really2

Cleaver wrote: »

Are you always this purposefully and deliberately obtuse?

If an article is well written, with decent analysis on proper figures, without the sensationalist journo lingo that Ash and the Oak pointed out, I'll welcome it and so would most on here. Regardless of what it concerns.

This article was trash and deserved to be rubbished. I'd do the same to an article that said that a 0.5% rise in asking prices after months of house price falls was evidence that we were 'booming' again, with houses 'selling like hot cakes'.

I remember posting last year the spread betting was saying only another 19% to drop on average and was told it meant F all.

What changed? I thought it was only ever sold prices that matter in terms of working out the average house price rises/falls.

Emy1501

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

The beginning of the original falls were pretty much exactly after the credit crunch started imo. A pretty big trigger and an almost immediate effect.

While there may be another decline (imo there will be one but don't know when it will start) without a trigger there's nothing really to say one months figures are significant

Remember selling in the SE in spring of 2007. It was obvious then that things were about to go bust and that was before the Credit crunch took its toll. People at the bottom of the market were struggling to sell. I had loads of viewer who were in no position to buy. Mosts were complaining that nobody wanted to buy their flat and they were struggling to sell. In the end I sold to someone who did a let to buy.

We did not bother buying as you could not work out what a property was worth as prices seemed to dropping every week. Haliwide did not start the drops till Oct-Nov.

The crash would have happened regardless of the Credit crunch. People were simply running out of money. If there had been no credit crunch we would have just have had a normal recession.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Emy1501 wrote: »

Remember selling in the SE in spring of 2007. It was obvious then that things were about to go bust and that was before the Credit crunch took its toll.

Not sure about this - think it had been "obvious" for about 2 years before that, but without the credit crunch who's to say how much longer it could have continued rising while being "obvious" (I agree it would have happened without the credit crunch - but I don't know whether it would have happened in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 or whenever)

I've put obvious in quote marks because I think it while it looked patently vulnerable to a crash it wasn't obvious when it would be. The difference with the credit crunch hitting in August was that you turned on the tv and it basically said "btw housing crash starts today" - thats the diff imo

1984ReturnsForReal_2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

I've put obvious in quote marks because I think it while it looked patently vulnerable to a crash it wasn't obvious when it would be. The difference with the credit crunch hitting in August was that you turned on the tv and it basically said "btw housing crash starts today" - thats the diff imo

By July 2007 it was obvious...

Emy1501

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Not sure about this - think it had been "obvious" for about 2 years before that, but without the credit crunch who's to say how much longer it could have continued rising while being "obvious" (I agree it would have happened without the credit crunch - but I don't know whether it would have happened in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 or whenever)

I've put obvious in quote marks because I think it while it looked patently vulnerable to a crash it wasn't obvious when it would be. The difference with the credit crunch hitting in August was that you turned on the tv and it basically said "btw housing crash starts today" - thats the diff imo

I don't mean obvious because the rises could not continue I mean obvious in that people were stuggling to sell around spring 07. The haliwide figures simply did not catch up to Oct-Nov.

I actually remember having kittens that my buyers was going to pull out for months and then NR went pop just before we completed luckily it still went through.

the_ash_and_the_oak

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

By July 2007 it was obvious...

in your opinion was it obvious that it was going to happen right then and there that month? or that it was going to come some time soon?

the_ash_and_the_oak

Emy1501 wrote: »

I don't mean obvious because the rises could not continue I mean obvious in that people were stuggling to sell around spring 07. The haliwide figures simply did not catch up to Oct-Nov.

I actually remember having kittens that my buyers was going to pull out for months and then NR went pop just before we completed luckily it still went through.

Thought transaction figures were still high until like sept?

ses6jwg

House prices are ridiculous in this country and I hope they do fall.

Its a nightmare for first time buyers like myself.