MSE News: Unemployment up, but pace of rise easing

Former_MSE_Natasha

This is the discussion thread for the following MSE News Story:

"Unemployment climbed by 30,000 over the three months to 30 September to reach 2.46 million, official figures showed today ..."

Read the full story:
Unemployment up, but pace of rise easing

The threads have been merged to avoid duplication. Thanks to inspector monkfish for the original post.

inspector_monkfish

09:30 11Nov09 UK claimant count rises much less than expected in Oct

LONDON, Nov 11 - The number of Britons claiming jobless benefit in October rose by its smallest amount in 18 months, while the number of people in work rose for the first time in over a year, official data showed on Wednesday.

The Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday claimant count unemployment rose by 12,900 last month, well below forecasts for an increase of 20,000.

The number of people without a job on the wider ILO measure rose by 30,000 in the three months to September to 2.461 million, the smallest rise since March-May 2008. That left the jobless rate at 7.8 percent, confounding expectations for a rise to 8.0 percent.

The figures will raise hopes that the worst of the recession has passed and that unemployment will peak at a lower level than previously feared.

Indeed, the number of people in work actually rose by 6,000 in the three months to September, the first increase since May-July 2008.

However, earnings growth remained subdued, rising by just 1.2 percent including bonuses in the three months to September, down from a 1.6 percent rise in the three months to August and well below expectations for a smaller easing to 1.5 percent.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

the number of people in work actually rose by 6,000 in the three months to September, the first increase since May-July 2008.
.

Now that is good news!!!!!

The number of people employed actually rose, and average pay continues to rise, albeit at a smaller rate than expected.

:beer:

Really2

I am sure I said this last month. But I hope unemployment has peaked.
Is that no rise in the last 3 months of data now?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Really2 wrote: »

I am sure I said this last month. But I hope unemployment has peaked.
Is that no rise in the last 3 months of data now?

It's a rise of 30,000 in 3 months claiming unemployment benefits..... Versus a rise of 88,000 last time, and 100,000 A MONTH earlier this year.

But the important thing is that the number of people WITH a job actually rose by 6,000. So Employment is rising now as well.

The rises in unemployment do very much look like they are grinding to a halt at around the 2.5 million mark. It now seems entirely possible we won't see 3 million let alone the 3.5 million some were claiming was probable.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

The funniest thing about this is the fact that it's not on HPC yet.....

Bad news gets posted in a nanosecond.

This has been out for half an hour and it's still not up yet.:rotfl:

lemonjelly

Personally doubt unemployment has peaked - unfortunately.

Thing is, in the headlines we hear about the losses, (eg yesterday - Lloyds, Northern Foods, ericsson, Honda etc) but due to employment law they can take time to filter through to signing on (consultation, notice periods etc).

Whilst 6000 people into work sounds like good news, countered by 30000 more JSA claimants, it is at best a phyrric victory. How many of the 6000 jobs are seasonal work/temp contracts for Christmas?

For me, the unemployment peak will be in 2010. If we have a really bad christmas, it may be sooner in the year rather than later.

Really2

lemonjelly wrote: »

For me, the unemployment peak will be in 2010. If we have a really bad christmas, it may be sooner in the year rather than later.

I firmly believe retail sales will be higher this Christmas than last year. The fear factor is not as high has last year.
I think the Oct retail figures go some way to prove that.
The Jobseekers increase can be put down to peoples redundancy terms coming to an end.
Not great but highly likely.

StevieJ

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

However, earnings growth remained subdued, rising by just 1.2 percent including bonuses in the three months to September, down from a 1.6 percent rise in the three months to August and well below expectations for a smaller easing to 1.5 percent.

What does that mean? is it annualised or is the 1.2 equal to, say 4.8% annualised

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

lemonjelly wrote: »

Personally doubt unemployment has peaked - unfortunately.

Me neither, but I think the peak will be a lot lower than most were expecting. Which is good news.

Whilst 6000 people into work sounds like good news, countered by 30000 more JSA claimants, it is at best a phyrric victory. How many of the 6000 jobs are seasonal work/temp contracts for Christmas?
.

Not neccessarily. This covers the last 3 month period, which is too early for X-Mas staff.

And the 30,000 rise is a rise in the numbers claiming..... Not neccessarily a rise in the numbers being made unemployed. Many of them could have been laid off earlier in the year and only now need to claim as redundancy payments are dwindling, for example.

lostinrates

I'm glad the rate is slowing, I'll be happier for people when unemployment declines, not just slows in increase!