House Price Crash Website

dfarry

Yes I do believe it is a case of when and not If a crash will happen...history suggests that the boom and bust cycle happens every ten or fifteen years...and it wasn't that long ago that house prices were at rockbottom in the wake of 15% interest rates during the late 80's/early 90's.

At the time I was in my early 20's and lucky to be earning about £8K per annum - I remember thinking how will I ever own a house.... I live with my parents in London and the cheapest places are £80K... then the repocessions started and house prices began to tumble. In the end my partner and I bought my parents house for £53000 in 1994, our joint salaries at the time were just £20K per annum. I am about to sell this same house for around £210-215K...sounds like a great return and it is until you look at the £150K mortgage we are now going to need to buy our next home. Our family income is now £40K and we have two kids now (kids cost alot of money!) so comparing to then and now we are (or will be soon) disproportunately worse off!.....but that's just the way it is.

I do feel that a interest only mortgage with no investment or expectation to pay back that money except from equity, is a very dangerous game to be playing at the moment though.

sm9ai

linnyp wrote:

It's hard to take them seriously when you do a bit of reading and find that most of them are very bitter and twisted towards current homeowners - sounding just like they're sorry for themselves that they missed out on buying when prices were lower.
It's one thing having constructive discussion about a predicted crash but quite another rubbing their hands in glee and taking great pleasure in wishing financial harm on others.

No. You are wrong.

Yes there are plenty of people who have missed the boat.

And plenty who were simply too young to get on the boat. (Lets say its a club 18 to 80 boat.)

Those who were born late are screwed. Then again those who were born too late were screwed over with Uni - even more so this year with all the strikes.

Very bleak future ahead for the younger generation.

Daddy_Bear_2

happenstance wrote:

They make a few good points but don’t really help their case with all the bitterness.

Although I’m getting frustrated with the amount of people I know getting interest only mortgages on low caped rates that they can't even afford. They have the intention to 'sell in a few years and make a fortune.' Naive.

Sadly most FTBs buying today will be in this category, my sister included. They are only thinking about affordability of the mortgage at the current fixed rate.

If, and it is a possibility, interest rates are say 6% in 2 years time (that is still not much higher than today), when all the fixed rate deals at 4.5% finish a lot of people could be faced with 30%+ increases in mortgage payments.

My sister is looking at £800 IO mortgage - this could become over £1000

And why should 6% be surprising? It shouldn't - the long term average is around 7%. Again, using the US as an example - rates there have gone 1% - 5% and still have to go higher to control inflation!

The same could happen in the UK.

Personally I wouldn't take the gamble and I think the UK could end up in a real mess in 2-3 years time.

Thefunkygibbons

interesting view of the world

My decisions in a couple of years on whether to do BTL or stock market will be interesting, may be worth going back there

Bestthingsinlifearefree

rvts wrote:

Has anyone seen this site? and indeed this thread!

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=12762

Just wondered what peoples views are on this?

This site has been wrongly "predicting" a house price crash for years. So take its doom and gloom views with a pinch of salt.

There are a lot of angry people on there who can't afford todays house prices or are angry because they did not buy when they were more cheap.

So in general they spend their time wishing for a house price crash and hence they are members of that site.

Daddy_Bear_2

Bestthingsinlifearefree wrote:

This site has been wrongly "predicting" a house price crash for years. So take its doom and gloom views with a pinch

Because they are predicting a house price crash it does not mean that they are wrong. To make a prediction is to suggest that something is going to happen in the future, you can only know if it was wrong looking back and just because a house price crash has not happened it does not mean that it won't so perhaps the people that use that site have been correctly predicting a house price crash for years - you just don't know they are right yet!

Take for example rising unemployment, debt mountain increasing 10% pa, rising US interest rates (in fact rising rates around the world) and the chances of a house price crash are getting greater, not diminishing

Woby_Tide

Daddy_Bear wrote:

Because they are predicting a house price crash it does not mean that they are wrong. To make a prediction is to suggest that something is going to happen in the future, you can only know if it was wrong looking back and just because a house price crash has not happened it does not mean that it won't so perhaps the people that use that site have been correctly predicting a house price crash for years - you just don't know they are right yet!

Take for example rising unemployment, debt mountain increasing 10% pa, rising US interest rates (in fact rising rates around the world) and the chances of a house price crash are getting greater, not diminishing

so we may as well start a www.housepricesrising.co.uk forum as well because at some point in the future prices are going to rise(probbaly a lot sooner than they crash)

The point that people were making is not that they've incorrectly predicted a crash, yes it could happen, but it's hardly going to highlight the forum as home of Nostrodamus is it. the point is that they said in 2004 it would crash. They said it would crash in 2005. They say it will crash in 2006.

If you'd bought in 2004 against their advice, you'd actually no whave a buffer against a crash, i.e. if prices had gone up 10% since then and then crash 25% you've lost 15%, if you buy now and it crashes, you lose 25% (crap figures I know but just pointing out a theory as you don't lose or gain anything unless you sell up)


But anyway have a look at my new weather predictor website www.itmightraintomorrow(butitmightnot).co.uk

happenstance

Woby_Tide wrote:

so we may as well start a www.housepricesrising.co.uk forum as well because at some point in the future prices are going to rise(probbaly a lot sooner than they crash)

Not really the website's name is crash not lower. The opposite would be something more like https://www.housepricesoar.co.uk. In any market its a given that prices are expected to rise and fall and it is less likley for crashes and soars. I agree with bear just because it hasnt happened yet doesnt mean it wont happen.

happenstance

movieman wrote:

Yet you don't believe we're in a housing bubble?

As I understand it British house prices today are higher relative to incomes than they've ever been in the last fifty years, and that at a time of historically low interest rates. I don't see how prices can _not_ crash when global interest rates are increasing and most new buyers are only buying because they expect prices to keep rising... a couple of rate rises will make mortgages unaffordable for many people, forcing them to sell, and a drop in prices will lead to a cascading crash as no-one wants to buy a depreciating asset.

Of course we are, hence why I'm saving and renting cheaply at the moment. The current mess of house prices is caused by media attention and the 'i must get on the property ladder now or I never will' thought.

nicola1982_2

As someone who is about to graduate I can see their point. I do not know a single student who believes that they can afford to purchase a house within the first three years post graduation. Even after that most of my friends only assume they'll be able to buy with a partner - and that's in the Midlands!

We're actually starting to see house prices drop a little in some areas of my county (obviously not to the prices they were before the boom) and the market is overrun with properties for sale as the fixed rate mortgages are coming to an end and people are begining to realise that they are not budding property developers. I blame these stupid property programmes for making people think they can buy and sell and be millionnaires overnight!

So from a potential first time buyers point of view - I don't resent homeowners, but I do get annoyed at this trend to buy more than one home effectively pushing an entire generation further away from stability. I don't want to start a family knowing that essentially I have no home security, therefore I have to wait a lot longer than others before me.