Get ready for the housing crash part II

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Not sure why you based it on interest only ?

because we were comparing the interest rates of the two periods in time

Thrugelmir wrote: »

For a repayment mortgage the figures are £646 and £946 respectively.

that is pretty obvious if the average house price is higher :rolleyes:

Thrugelmir wrote: »

So the question has to be does the average family earn £300 per month more 18 years later? And thats after factoring in the cost of living and a different tax regime. So not a straightforward comparison to make..

the average family wouldn't own a property - the average home owner would be better to compare

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

because we were comparing the interest rates of the two periods in time

I've obviously missed the relevance that this has to house prices then.

sabretoothtigger

cpi doubled from 1986 to 2008 so as pay generally rises above inflation we can say the average family does earn at least 300 more now

jcj

Really2 wrote: »

That is a good point and one of the reasons it is different this time.

This is the first recession we have had that as happened to all services, in the past they were very manufacturing orinentated.

I wonder if the could have a bearing on house prices also so not seeing gluts of houses of the same type in the same areas.
But the pain fairy equally spread out over the country covering all housing types. Could be a possibilty I suppose.

"This time it's different" are the four most expensive words in the investing language.— Sir John Templeton

carolt

Got my monthly round-up of sold prices in 1 area I monitor, and it's back to .... zero.

Nada. Nothing.

Not one diddly-squat property sold. Not even one tiddly studio flat, no run-down terraces. Not even a millionaire's mansion.

Ooops.

Clearly the spring bounce is now over.

Looking forward to autumn - or "fall" as the Americans appropriately call it.

IveSeenTheLight

carolt wrote: »

Clearly the spring bounce is now over.

And the Summer bounce and the first part of Autumn still showing the bounce being positive

carolt wrote: »

Looking forward to autumn - or "fall" as the Americans appropriately call it.

Very good, we will see falls over the winter period and probably at the end of the official Autumn period.
I'm surprised really that there has been so much consecutive rises at also a surprisingly high rate.
It has to "fall" back a bit as the bounce has been soo prominant

carolt

Good to see we agree on further falls.

IveSeenTheLight

carolt wrote: »

Good to see we agree on further falls.

Not so sure that it'll be lower than the February prices though.
Time is running out on that.
Before you know it the next spring / summer / autumn bounce may be upon us

nearlynew

Traditionally, the "spring bounce" referred to the increased volume of sales experienced during that time of the year. It had nothing to do with rising prices.

It is only recently that HPI cheerleaders have hijacked the term and changed it to mean that come the spring, they expect prices will rise and come to their rescue.

It's a delusion baseded on hope rather than based on reality.

IveSeenTheLight

nearlynew wrote: »

Traditionally, the "spring bounce" referred to the increased volume of sales experienced during that time of the year. It had nothing to do with rising prices.

It is only recently that HPI cheerleaders have hijacked the term and changed it to mean that come the spring, they expect prices will rise and come to their rescue.

It's a delusion based[STRIKE]ed[/STRIKE] on hope rather than based on reality.

I thought it was a reality this year?

I also thought it was the other side of the fence that was muting it wouldn't last