Housing Shortfall approaching 1 million

adr0ck

A new Discussion Paper ‘Mind the Gap – Housing Supply in a Cold Climate’ by David Pretty CBE and Paul Hackett for the Smith Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and published by the Town and Country Planning Association, is being launched at the Labour Party conference today.

David Pretty CBE, co-author of the report, said:
“Our analysis shows that in England we could be approaching a 1 million housing shortfall by the end of 2010. With production at its lowest level in 80 years, the gap between housing supply and demand will, this year alone, be around 150,000 homes, equivalent to the size of Nottingham.”

discuss

http://www.tcpa.org.uk/data/files/housingreport.pdf

Thrugelmir

The issue is unsurprisingly very complex.

A few points stand out.

Housing affordability in England has worsened over the last ten years

For the time being, the fear of negative equity and repossession continues to hang over the housing market. A YouGov survey for the Chartered Institute of Housing (CIH) published in June 2009 indicated that nearly 12 million people expect to face financial difficulties paying their housing costs over the coming 12 months. The survey also indicates that the recession and credit crunch has caused over 8 million people to delay

or cancel their housing plans to move over the past 12 months.

First Time Buyers

However, the number of first-time buyers
(FTBs) in the total housing market has fallen sharply (from an average of around 500,000 a year between 1998 and 2004, to under 200,000 last year). Their average age has meanwhile increased from 25 a generation ago to 37 years old today.

michaels

I wonder where those 1m households are at the moment - you don't see them sleeping on the street round here.

I am sure if you asked everyone whether they needed (another) car most would say yes - does this mean there is a car shortfall?

Unless the population physically can not fit in the housing stock then by definition there is no shortfall the market (ie prices) will ration property with those unable (or unwilling) to pay more living in a smaller or less desirable property than they would wish.

dgl1001

michaels wrote: »

I wonder where those 1m households are at the moment - you don't see them sleeping on the street round here.

I am sure if you asked everyone whether they needed (another) car most would say yes - does this mean there is a car shortfall?

Unless the population physically can not fit in the housing stock then by definition there is no shortfall the market (ie prices) will ration property with those unable (or unwilling) to pay more living in a smaller or less desirable property than they would wish.

WOW - what a simplistic view of the housing shortage you have. You will be telling me next your drive to work in the morning demonstrates there to be no shortage, as there are 3 flats up for sale.

PasturesNew

There are lots of empty places because of affordability.

Landlords were buying up all the 1-2 bed places, HPI went mad ... but at the end of the day they had to cover their mortgage with the rent being asked.

You run out of people who can afford to pay the rent that covers the mortgage interest as prices went up. My affordability limit is to rent about £70k worth of property.

Really2

michaels wrote: »

I wonder where those 1m households are at the moment - you don't see them sleeping on the street round here.

I am sure if you asked everyone whether they needed (another) car most would say yes - does this mean there is a car shortfall?

Unless the population physically can not fit in the housing stock then by definition there is no shortfall the market (ie prices) will ration property with those unable (or unwilling) to pay more living in a smaller or less desirable property than they would wish.

What if they had no car and work is 30 miles away (possible that prices have forced people further away from their jobs) these are not "second homes". Just because people live with parents, house share, or rent does not mean they don't need to buy.

It is houses in areas where short supply causes house prices to be to high (EG South east)

People can argue on the numbers as much as they want but surely house prices would be the same in all towns and wages if there was no demand?

PasturesNew

michaels wrote: »

those unable (or unwilling) to pay more living in a smaller or less desirable property than they would wish.

What if the smallest place is still unaffordable?

Where I was living until a couple of years ago, people were sleeping in bunk-bed rooms, 4-6 to a room (strangers) and a couple of blokes sharing the shed. I had a friend who was renting an illegally (and damp) converted garage in somebody's garden - and there were two people found dead in sheds within 100 yards of where I was living over just 2-3 years.

Hellhole? No, Cornwall.

StevieJ

I bet Dopester is getting !!!!ed off living in his mums back bedroom

Shakethedisease

wonder where those 1m households are at the moment - you don't see them sleeping on the street round here.

I don't know about the whole of the uk but at least 10,000 are in temporary accomodation in Scotland..

http://www.allmediascotland.com/allnewswire/5472/Temporary_Housing_Crisis_Highlights_Desperate_Need_for_Budget_for_Homes

"A huge increase in the use of temporary housing for homeless people has exposed the desperate shortage of homes to rent....
...However, the housing charity argues, this is mainly because many more people are being stacked up in temporary housing while the supply of permanent homes declines.

"Today’s figures show a huge 160 per cent rise in the number of households in temporary accommodation, the highest in the ten years of the Scottish Parliament. They show an increase from 3,864 in March 1999 to 10,053 in March 2009 - including 3,825 households with children or pregnant women".

For the whole of the uk that must be a lot of people in temporary accomodation, and, bear in mind, these are people looking to rent not buy.

vivatifosi

michaels wrote: »

I wonder where those 1m households are at the moment - you don't see them sleeping on the street round here.

Looking at the report, there are two reasons the number of houses required is growing. The first is the obvious one - if the population goes up, you need more houses. The second is a massive increase in one person households. I guess at the moment those people are sharing in some way, but their desire is to have their own property. In 2006, the number of one person households was 6.822m. In 2031 the forecast is for 10.899m (why they didn't round that when its so far into the future is beyond me).

This latter category raises interesting questions. We've as a group been pretty disparaging about new-build flats and their future desirability, but it is the obvious housing type for singles, unless there is space to build small one and two bed houses.

Furthermore the report states at the rate at which houses are being built, new homes will need to last hundreds of years in order to avoid other future problems.

pie81

Just because people live with parents, house share, or rent does not mean they don't need to buy.

The second is a massive increase in one person households. I guess at the moment those people are sharing in some way, but their desire is to have their own property.

I think we need to distinguish between the NEED for more housing - as illustrated by homeless people, those in temporary accommodation, or those living somewhere unfit for habitation - and the DESIRE for more housing - as illustrated by the above quotes, i.e. people who have somewhere perfectly ok to live but want something better.

I am not sure which category these figures reflect.