Shall we have our own 12 month house price survey then?

Coeus

Put me down for 6% decrease in 2011.

Based on a few assumptions:
- cheap debt exists with low BoE base rate, however is likely to remain inaccessible in to short term (<1 year)
- the low BoE base rate will be maintain in the short term (<1 year) to maintain economic stability
- as result of low BoE base rate, those looking to save for deposits are more likely to lock funds for a decent rate in the long term (>1 year)
- increasing inflation will also act as incentive to lock savings for long term (> 1 year)
- the rate of inflation will increase throughout 2011 with the advent of 20.0% VAT rate and other economic factors
- increased inflation throughout 2011 will (i) erode saving ability and (ii) tighten banks view of 'disposable income'
- banks will continue to maintain a strict lending policy, as such their view of 'disposable income' will itself be strict
- the housing market of sellers in excess to buyers will be maintained throughout 2011

Note: I am likely to be looking to buy towards the end of 2011 after I complete professional exams. In light of the likely rises in cost of living the net saving from waiting to purchase will be eroded throughout 2011. However I believe that the end result is still likely to be a significant net gain from waiting to purchase within the short term (<1 year).

sabretoothtigger

- increasing inflation will also act as incentive to lock savings for long term (> 1 year)

MSE News: Inflation rise means all savings are 'losing' accounts


There are no incentives to save. The BOE has specifically told people spend all your money now, dont save. Its their deliberate intention to devalue cash and make poorer people who save money instead of buying a house or investing

Coeus

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

MSE News: Inflation rise means all savings are 'losing' accounts

True however people still save, especially FTB. Locking savings in fixed-rate accounts attract a higher interest rate to which savers are attracted.

I myself have recently opened a 8% regular saver as well as continuing to invest in a S&S ISA currently providing a ~8.3% return.

People will find a manner in which to save in the long term in excess of inflation - my experience is evidence of this.

Pimperne1

Thanks Cleaver, I'll go for 0%.

justme111

so the last year the ones who said a rate of change will be 0% were right... this year my prediction is -4%

Cleaver

justme111 wrote: »

so the last year the ones who said a rate of change will be 0% were right... this year my prediction is -4%

Do you mean for this thread? The average of the indicies was 3.9%, which was the initial question asked (between Aug and Aug I think).

sabretoothtigger

Yep it rose, it was only maybe zero vs inflation as that figure was also something like 3% I think. However inflation can vary for people, not everyone drives or whatever so I can see why most would want to exclude complications.

Many people say because of lower interest, costs has fallen even including any prices going up so some have deflation I guess.

jebervic

+0.5% for me

geneer

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Thanks Cleaver, I'll go for 0%.

Softlanding. Same as 2007 eh?

Cleaver

geneer wrote: »

Softlanding. Same as 2007 eh?

You going to have a go geneer? You can win a fish.