Shall we have our own 12 month house price survey then?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

DervProf wrote: »

Epic fail. :wall: I should have engaged brain before typing.

I find that helps.

What I meant was that you have been fairly accurate, but you seem to "boast" about it somewhat.

I have been more accurate than any poster I know of, here or on hpc.

Sadly, it is necessary to remind people of that fact on occasion, given the frequent vitriolic attacks all those of a bullish persuasion are subjected to.

I am simply trying to suggest that if you were so confident in your ability to predict, why didn`t you use it to your advantage ?

I did.

I opted to hold the properties I have rather than STR-ing, and have been rewarded well as a result of that decision.

You may say that there is a risk, but how can there be if you are so good at predicting the market.

There is always a risk, to everything. The trick is in quantifying the risk, both in terms of probability of occurence and impact if it does occur.

I can only evaluate the variables and predict from that the most likely outcome.... But such an outcome is never guaranteed.

And at this point it's important to note that in my opinion, people's acceptance of varying degrees of risk should change at different points in their life.

For example, people in their 20's should be very risk tolerant as they have plenty of time to recover from adversity with a working lifetime ahead of them. People in their 60's should be extremely risk averse, simply because they have no time to recover. Someone my age should have a medium tolerance for risk, and my investment decisions reflect that.

Or maybe you have been a tad lucky (did you really know that Gordon and Alistair would act as they did ?).

Luck? Perhaps.

But what is luck if not the reward of risk?

As for Gordon and Alastair, I did note that QE and intervention was a likely response to the unfolding crisis many months before either action was taken, but no, I didn't predict such a course of action a year or two prior.

What I did know, without a shadow of a doubt, was that the housing market and wider economy had become so interlinked that NO government could allow a crash to happen without throwing everything up to and including the kitchen sink at it, as the accompanying recession would be so severe. And that the underlying shortage of housing in Britain will ensure that the medium to long term trajectory of house prices remains firmly upwards.

And sure enough, that was exactly the case.

Dirk_Rambo

Joeskeppi wrote: »

I don't think anyone really cares if prices will be lower or higher on the nearlynew fantasy index.

i most certeinly do. id rather listen to whats happenign in the real world rather than some figures the bank makes #up

Cleaver

Dirk_Rambo wrote: »

i most certeinly do. id rather listen to whats happenign in the real world rather than some figures the bank makes #up

Dirk Rambo you are my favourite poster on here. Thought you should know.

IveSeenTheLight

Cleaver wrote: »

And thus, with a simple sentence, the MSE debate board's pointless, relentless, cycle of endless squabbling and bickering commences again, so that in twevle months time we can have the same trivial and nonsense discussions about what is reality and what isn't. And still the world turns. Still the world turns.

Still the world turns and still there is increasing demand for property (to own or rent).

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Still the world turns and still there is increasing demand for property (to own or rent).

Very true....

Cleaver

Many thanks to Pimperne who started a thread on 2011 predictions, but I thought I might hijack it and add it on to this thread, as we've done it all before.

Same rules as the first post, but this time between November 2010 figures and November 2011 figures (which is pretty much the whole of 2011ish). If anyone is interested in doing this, let me know your prediction on here and I'll start a new table on the front page of this thread. A reminder of the 'rules':

Let's say the comparison is the figures released for the end of [STRIKE]August 2009[/STRIKE] November 2010 compared with the same figures released for the average house price at the end of [STRIKE]August 2010[/STRIKE] November 2011 (LR or Nationwide I guess).

None of this, "well, it depends whether the government do x,y,z" or "well, with this false economy we all know what they should be". Just how far up or down you think the average price will be in 12 months time, keeping absolutely everything in mind.

I'll happily keep a lovely league table of predictions here on this first post and then in 12 months time we can have a healthy discussion about the figures (or rip the p*ss out of those that were completely wrong. Although obviously none of us will be wrong, because we're all right about this kinda thing).

And I'll add for this year: none of that "well, when you compare them against silver", or "well, it all depends on the hedge between sterling and the dollar" or "well, when compared to inflation..."

Just the price in Nov 2011 compared to Nov 2010.

I'll go for minus 3%. Anyone else want a go?

Linton

Up 5%

a bit more written as 5 letter replies are not allowed.

nearlynew

linton wrote: »

up 5%

a bit more written as 5 letter replies are not allowed.

? ...................

Cleaver

nearlynew wrote: »

?

Shall I put that down as your prediction?

sabretoothtigger

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

July is £169,347......

Which is an increase of 5.6% from the August 2009 price of £160,244.

Michaels is in the lead at the moment, with one Nationwide release to go.:D

Whats the latest average price now ?



My guess stands the same as last year, take the above % increase then reduce by the RPI figure or CPI if you like and my estimate is 0% for 2010 2011 2012 etc



Very clever :laugh:

nearlynew wrote: »

? ...................[/color

And I'll add for this year: none of that "well, when you compare them against silver", or "well, it all depends on the hedge between sterling and the dollar" or "well, when compared to inflation..."

I'll have to be officially excluded then. Inflation will go up and house prices will go up, cant know how much on each, 5% maybe