Shall we have our own 12 month house price survey then?

Exocet

Cleaver wrote: »

And even more interesting would be to hear whether people would predict differently if asked the same question now for this time next year?

I wasn't here then obviously, but if I had been I would say the same as now, which would be that I expect a 10% fall. However this comes with a small caveat. And that is that I have been pretty much completely and utterly wrong on every prediction for the future direction of house prices.

IveSeenTheLight

Cleaver wrote: »

And even more interesting would be to hear whether people would predict differently if asked the same question now for this time next year?

I put my next years predicitons here
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=36253869&postcount=303

As I was bearish this year prediction only a +1.5% YOY, my even more bearish prediciton of -1.5% (to reflect I think its a staganted market) has the potential to be even more bearish than last year (given I am lowering my prediciton by 3%)

I wonder if people will still call me a bull

P.S. I am still bullish on long term price rises.

Cleaver

Cleaver wrote: »

Sorry to bump this, but I think it would be really interesting to hear from people who predicted prices 10% of 15% different from what actually happened.

Erm... anyone?

Thanks Exocet. Although I fully appreciate that you weren't here when the original thread was created and thus didn't have a vote. Didn't you have influenza or something?

nearlynew

this is the first time I have looked at this thread since it re-appeared and haven't read any new replies.


How did I do?

Cleaver

nearlynew wrote: »

this is the first time I have looked at this thread since it re-appeared and haven't read any new replies.


How did I do?

Badly. But you kept your cool-guy image.

nearlynew wrote: »

Nearlynew : down


(don't give a t0ss about actual percentages)

nearlynew

But prices are down though so I was right.

Cleaver

nearlynew wrote: »

But prices are down though so I was right.

On the Nationwide index they were up. It doesn't actually matter if they are "made up" or not, I asked the question:

Cleaver wrote: »

Shall we have our own survey of where we all think house prices will be in exactly 12 months time? Let's say the comparison is the figures released for the end of August 2009 compared with the same figures released for the average house price at the end of August 2010 (LR or Nationwide I guess).

You said the Nationwide index would be down, but the Nationwide index was up. 100% gauranteed.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Cleaver wrote: »

Erm... anyone??

It seems likely their prediction was based on what they wanted to happen, rather than based on a reasonable analysis of the situation.

Cleaver

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It seems likely their prediction was based on what they wanted to happen, rather than based on a reasonable analysis of the situation.

Well possibly, but we could say exactly the same about you.

I think Graham, Mewbs, FC123, wageslave, treliac, Jennifer_Jane et al. would have all had good reasons as to why they thought house prices would fall over the last few months. As I said, I think you could ask people like Brit this question every year for the rest of time and he'd always go with something like -10%.

Doesn't matter anyway, no one who predicted falls wants to discuss why they did or whether it's changed their views on how they would predict things in future (or even offer their congratulations to you for being so perceptive Hamish). Ah well. Could have been an interesting subject matter.

Imagine Brit starting a thread with "You know what, I think I might have been just a touch single-minded and pessimistic over the past couple of years, so here's what I think now..". Don't think that's ever going to happen though.

nearlynew

But I don't take any notice of those lying thieves that produce the indexes.


I voted that I thought prices would be lower and they are.