Shall we have our own 12 month house price survey then?

sabretoothtigger

I said 0% after inflation
Halifax HPI m/m is tomorrow maybe, not sure what the last cpi or rpi was or y/y

IveSeenTheLight

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I too have been thinking about this before voting.
The thing is it is quite hard.
I foresee drops over the winter and rises again next spring.

How much will they drop over the winter? The summer rises have been higher than I had expected. Will this impact on the YoY figures for next year.
Will it affect sentiment / confidence and therefore impact when rises start in spring?


In essence, I've said we are probably in for the next year of stagnation.
I don't really want to be a "fence sitter" on the graph, but I do think it will be stagnant obviously could swing a percent or two either way.

FCUK it, off the top of my head, lets go for + 1.5%

Could I predict -1.5% for next year?
I know there a factors prediciting a modest fall of 5% for the next year, but putting -1.5% would figure in my thoughts that were pretty much in a stagnant period.

vivatifosi

Congratulations Hamish! I always had you down as irrationally exuberant. Now it would appear you are accurately exuberant, if there's such a phrase.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

vivatifosi wrote: »

Congratulations Hamish! I always had you down as irrationally exuberant. Now it would appear you are accurately exuberant, if there's such a phrase.

:rotfl:

Well, I was 0.08% out.....

Must try harder next time.:D

IveSeenTheLight

Cleaver wrote: »

Just thought it'd be interesting to revist this thread, as we're two thirds through the year since we all did the poll. My understanding is that the the Nationwide average house price for the end of August was £160,244 and the last report for the end of April 10 had the average price of £167,802. That's an increase of £7,578, which I make to be a 4.72% increase so far since we all made our guess.

God, even Hamish is looking bearish at the moment...

The original predictions made at the start of September 09. So many of our comrades gone, or using different usenames.

heyman: +11%
bluey890: +10.0276523%
Rupert the Bear 2: +6.7%
michaels: +5.5%
Euphoria1z: +5%
Hamish_Mctavish: +4%
Framps: +3.7%
TrulyMadly: +3.2%
Spirit: +3.1%
Dan:: +3%
Cleaver: +2.8%
vivatifosa: +2.8%
b0rker: +2.6%
lethal0r: +2%
LydiaJ: +2%
Masomnia: +1.75%
baileysbattlebus: +1.5%
IveSeenTheLight: +1.5%
ess0two: +1.3%
Radiantsoul: +1%
Annpan: 0%
StevieJ: 0%
sabretoothtiger: 0%
joeskeppi 0% (with a +/- 2% Peter Snow style swing)
JonnyBravo: -0.4%
harryhound: -1%
davesnave: -3%
wageslave: -3%
boyse7en: -3.14%
lemonjelly: -3.25%
Geeves1980: -3.75%
nm123: -4%
Cannon Fodder: -4% (LR)
Wolvoman: -4.5% (but +2% in London)
fingernails: -4.7%
chucky: -5%
damanpunk: -5%
Jennifer_Jane: -5%
ninky: -5%
Pobby: -5%
Lotus-eater: -5.23%
tommy75: -6%
treliac: -7%
moggylover: -7%
subarusty: -7%
skap7309: -7% (LR) -8.5% (the other ones)
graham_devon: -7.5%
carolt: -8%
ShelleyC: -8%
FC123: -9%
DeadCat: -10%
FungusFighter: -10%
mewbie: -10%
brit1234: -11%
spannaman: -11%
bo drinker: -12%
geoffky: -15%
bernard shaw: -25%

Strangely quiet from those further down the list

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Strangely quiet from those further down the list

Indeed.

It seems to be a common bear trait.

Get humiliated with absurd bearish predictions failing to happen, abandon old user ID, register new ID, become the laughing stock of the board yet again when new absurd bearish predictions fail to happen, rinse and repeat.

It's the same old tired hacks, typing the same old tired bear memes, over and over and bl00dy over again.

sabretoothtigger

Ive read that high inflation typically destroys growth but maintains prices as all assets compare favourably to cash. I'll bet zero for the next year on those grounds

usa and uk dont compare directly really, maybe europe but overall hpi is better off over here i think


Bears only attack when hungry or surprised :shhh:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Bears only attack when hungry or surprised :shhh:

Indeed.

Must be hunger, because they can't possibly be surprised.

It's not like I didn't tell them often enough what was going to happen.:D

Cleaver

Sorry to bump this, but I think it would be really interesting to hear from people who predicted prices 10% of 15% different from what actually happened. Not in a "You're wrong, I'm right" way, but it would just be good to hear why people thought prices would fall 10% (for example) and what they think were the factors that stopped this happening?

And even more interesting would be to hear whether people would predict differently if asked the same question now for this time next year?

I obviously know that the Brits and the Carols of this world will always predict 10% or 15% falls every year without really thinking about it, but what about those who actually thought it through and came up with 7% falls etc.? Has this last year changed your perceptions?

Chris2685

I think the major reason large falls did not happen was because sellers did not get distressed, as was theorised at the time. Probably due to low interest rates.