Shall we have our own 12 month house price survey then?

nearlynew

I love rewired.

Heyman_2

nearlynew wrote: »

I love rewired.

Yeah, I'd love rewired too if he/she accounted for half my Thanks count

fc123

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Thing is, rewired is obviously a thanking sockie, created by another member who possibly has already voted.

Rather than scramble for votes (or allow obvious sockies to give second votes), just go with the participants.

It's only a bit of fun ain't it.

Rewired is Laura and she likes this board but doesn't post too much as there are scarrrry people about.
I think LIR told her not to worry...plenty of us who will stand up for her if she gets any grief.

I have been [STRIKE]wasting [/STRIKE] hanging out here off and on for 2 years now and no-one has ever, ever flagged themselves up before without writing a single post.
So, I think that's quite an achievement in itself.

So come on Rewired, you could win a prize...and Cleaver is nice and courteous to everyone who posts on his thread.;)

Afriend_2

fc123 wrote: »

Rewired is Laura and she likes this board but doesn't post too much as there are scarrrry people about.
I think LIR told her not to worry...plenty of us who will stand up for her if she gets any grief.

I have been [STRIKE]wasting [/STRIKE] hanging out here off and on for 2 years now and no-one has ever, ever flagged themselves up before without writing a single post.
So, I think that's quite an achievement in itself.

So come on Rewired, you could win a prize...and Cleaver is nice and courteous to everyone who posts on his thread.;)

Don't do it rewired. It's a trap. His poll is more bias than a Zimbabwean election.

IveSeenTheLight

fc123 wrote: »

Rewired is Laura

Ahh, is Laura your weekend name

Cleaver

carolt wrote: »

So get number-crunching, then Cleaver.

Are us educated types on here more or less pessimistic than the general populace who voted on the original poll?

What do you reckon? :rolleyes:

58 people have voted, 34 of which think we'll see falls over the next year, 4 think no change and 20 see rises.

The mean average of the predictions is a fall of -2.78% over the next 12 months. It seems a pretty sensible prediction in many ways.

There are three graphs below. The blue one is mean average, the red is the lowest prediction (bernard shaw at -25%) and the orange is the most optimistic (heyman at +11%).



Y'know what the weird thing is? -25% looks stupid on paper. Plot it on a graph and it doesn't look nearly as tin foil hat as it should. I suppose it fits in with that classic 'bull trap' theory. However, the blue one looks most realistic to me.

carolt

Thanks so much for taking the time to do that, Cleaver - makes our thread look quite serious and respectable now.

You're right - when you look at the graphs, you can see how unlikely the +11% prediction looks, when plotted against the historic figures - not to say it couldn't happen, but it would make one weird trajectory....

michaels

Try pulling out a stock market graph and look at Black Friday in October 87 - at the time a huge crash but open up the time-scale and it is a blip on a huge rally

carolt wrote: »

You're right - when you look at the graphs, you can see how unlikely the +11% prediction looks, when plotted against the historic figures - not to say it couldn't happen, but it would make one weird trajectory....

Cleaver

michaels wrote: »

Try pulling out a stock market graph and look at Black Friday in October 87 - at the time a huge crash by open up the time-scale and it is a blip on a huge rally

Very true. But stocks are a lot more volatile aren't they? You could say that a stock exhange is like a speedboat. It can slow and speed up very quickly, turn left, turn right, zig zag all over the place. The house price index seems more like an oil tanker - it can still move, but it's a lot slower to turn left and right and once it's going in one direction it takes a lot of effort to change path.

You can sell your entire portfolio of shares and funds with a click of a mouse or a call to a dealer, then buy it all back a month later. Buying and selling property, even as an investment, is a much bigger consideration and a lot more 'final'. 'Tis my view anyway.

Cleaver

Right, last two graphs and a meant as a bit of a laugh, not to cause offense. I'm off out to get a life after posting these.

The green one is Brit's 50% off peak by Christmas 2009 classic. Hmmm...

The blue one is a tribute to our Simian Primate Chairman and CEO of the 70% club, Mr Macaque. It shows 70% from peak falls by Aug 2011.

If my ape-like cercopithecinae friend is right it means that when and Mrs C look to move next, we'll be able to pick up a nice, 3-bed semi, with a nice garden in a central area of Mancheser for around £35k. Which would be excellent. If we needed a mortgage then payments would be around a hundred quid and we could get it paid off in a couple of years.

There is a quiet, nagging, slight suspicion that the other few million people in the Greater Manchester area might have the same plan as me before the price fell to that level, thus stopping them falling so low. I'm going to call my theory 'supply and demand and market economics'. Think it may catch on?