Shall we have our own 12 month house price survey then?

mewbie_2

Great graphs Cleaver. But you seem to have started at 1991. Could be of course that you only had room for so many years on your graph. But I could have sworn something horrible happened to house prices in the years before then?

edit: I looked it up. Lol.

Click to see a fuller price graph. Warning - not for the faint hearted.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-average-house-price.php

Edit: See how much it dropped below the trend line and for how long. Holy Price Crash batman!

michaels

Except:

Almost any homeowner with a mortgage would be in negative equity and unable to move
With 25% unemployment and everyone else in terror of losing their job even committing to £100 per month would look risky to both the borrower and any bank that happened to still be in business and able to contemplate lending money.

So there is a internally consistent scenario in which prices do fall that much but it sort of implies a complete failure of the financial system...and it did almost happen.

Cleaver

mewbie wrote: »

Great graphs Cleaver. But you seem to have started at 1991. Could be of course that you only had room for so many years on your graph. But I could have sworn something horrible happened to house prices in the years before then?

There was honestly no hidden agenda. I just went to the Nationwide website, picked the first option I saw and lobbed in it to Excel. You're right though, it would have been a bit better to include some of the booms and busts before that. Apologies.

mewbie_2

Cleaver wrote: »

There was honestly no hidden agenda. I just went to the Nationwide website, picked the first option I saw and lobbed in it to Excel. You're right though, it would have been a bit better to include some of the booms and busts before that. Apologies.

No need to apologise. I have been visiting conspiracy theory websites and it has made me very suspicious of things. Can't say more because they are watching me. Probably.

Cleaver

As per Mewbie's request, Mr Macaque's 70% fall, but on a graph with prices from 1950s. Data collection, graph creation and posting in 10 mins. I might apply to be Martin's Graph Monkey. MSE Cleaver. That has a ring to it.

Heyman_2

carolt wrote: »

You're right - when you look at the graphs, you can see how unlikely the +11% prediction looks, when plotted against the historic figures - not to say it couldn't happen, but it would make one weird trajectory....

We'll see

Spirit_2

Cleaver wrote: »

As per Mewbie's request, Mr Macaque's 70% fall, but on a graph with prices from 1950s. Data collection, graph creation and posting in 10 mins. I might apply to be Martin's Graph Monkey. MSE Cleaver. That has a ring to it.

Has Gordon Bown seen this?

Cleaver I for one will not think you are showing off if you send him a link to your graph.

michaels

Are these inflation adjusted prices?

Would be interested to see one deflated by a wages index...well I am sure Hamish would.

Cleaver wrote: »

As per Mewbie's request, Mr Macaque's 70% fall, but on a graph with prices from 1950s. Data collection, graph creation and posting in 10 mins. I might apply to be Martin's Graph Monkey. MSE Cleaver. That has a ring to it.

Cleaver

michaels wrote: »

Are these inflation adjusted prices?

They are inflation-adjusted and I've also looked at the classic '93/'94 market cap figures and adjusted the graph against the y axis, mainly in light of the favourable p/e ratio. I've also rebased the slow-climb against RPI.*





*I have no idea.

Cleaver

Just thought it'd be interesting to revist this thread, as we're two thirds through the year since we all did the poll. My understanding is that the the Nationwide average house price for the end of August was £160,244 and the last report for the end of April 10 had the average price of £167,802. That's an increase of £7,578, which I make to be a 4.72% increase so far since we all made our guess.

God, even Hamish is looking bearish at the moment...

The original predictions made at the start of September 09. So many of our comrades gone, or using different usenames.

heyman: +11%
bluey890: +10.0276523%
Rupert the Bear 2: +6.7%
michaels: +5.5%
Euphoria1z: +5%
Hamish_Mctavish: +4%
Framps: +3.7%
TrulyMadly: +3.2%
Spirit: +3.1%
Dan:: +3%
Cleaver: +2.8%
vivatifosa: +2.8%
b0rker: +2.6%
lethal0r: +2%
LydiaJ: +2%
Masomnia: +1.75%
baileysbattlebus: +1.5%
IveSeenTheLight: +1.5%
ess0two: +1.3%
Radiantsoul: +1%
Annpan: 0%
StevieJ: 0%
sabretoothtiger: 0%
joeskeppi 0% (with a +/- 2% Peter Snow style swing)
JonnyBravo: -0.4%
harryhound: -1%
davesnave: -3%
wageslave: -3%
boyse7en: -3.14%
lemonjelly: -3.25%
Geeves1980: -3.75%
nm123: -4%
Cannon Fodder: -4% (LR)
Wolvoman: -4.5% (but +2% in London)
fingernails: -4.7%
chucky: -5%
damanpunk: -5%
Jennifer_Jane: -5%
ninky: -5%
Pobby: -5%
Lotus-eater: -5.23%
tommy75: -6%
treliac: -7%
moggylover: -7%
subarusty: -7%
skap7309: -7% (LR) -8.5% (the other ones)
graham_devon: -7.5%
carolt: -8%
ShelleyC: -8%
FC123: -9%
DeadCat: -10%
FungusFighter: -10%
mewbie: -10%
brit1234: -11%
spannaman: -11%
bo drinker: -12%
geoffky: -15%
bernard shaw: -25%