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Recession is over...... apparently.
bo_drinker
Posts: 3,924 Forumite
TOP ECONOMISTS SAY UK RECESSION IS OVER
Friday August 14 2009 byMacer Hall
Have your say(9)
BRITAIN’S worst recession for more than half a century is over, City experts predicted last night.
In a welcome blast of optimism, two senior economists said that the country has pulled out of the slump and economic growth has returned.
Shares soared in the City yesterday following a rash of positive financial data.
France and Germany officially emerged from recession in the spring, statistics confirmed, and the positive news from Europe helped the FTSE rise 38.7 points to 4755.46. At one stage it hit 4780 – a new high for the year.
Experts insist Britain is closely following the leading European economies into brighter times. Jim O’Neill, chief economist at investment bank Goldman Sachs, believes growth returned to the UK economy in June.
He said: “It is clear, given what we have seen from Germany and France, that things have improved much more quickly than people expect. I would say the UK is out of recession this quarter.”
Neville Hill, an economist with Credit Suisse, said: “Our view is that the UK is out of recession now and will post positive growth in the second half of the year.”
Analysts urged caution, however. They said there was still a great deal of uncertainty in the global economy and unemployment in the UK would continue to rise over the coming months while the recovery takes time to spread to all sectors of the economy. Official data yesterday showed that both the French and German economies grew by 0.3 per cent between April and June.
British national income continued to shrink by 0.8 per cent over the same period, although the performance was an improvement on the 2.5 per cent contraction in the previous three months.
SEARCH WORLD NEWS for:
The recovery in Germany and France will be a welcome boost for hard-pressed British exporters. A Treasury spokesman said: “This is obviously encouraging news for UK manufacturers.”
Exporters will also be boosted by a weaker pound, which makes British goods cheaper for foreigners to buy.
Politicians on all sides welcomed the signs of recovery. But ministers were last night under pressure to explain why Britain’s recovery was lagging behind France and Germany’s.
Tory leader David Cameron said: “These figures completely explode what Gordon Brown has been saying about how well prepared we were for the downturn. While France and Germany are starting growing, Britain is still shrinking. Gordon Brown hasn’t got it right, he’s got it wrong.”
Shadow Chancellor George Osborne said: “It is great news that we are beginning to see some signs of recovery in France and Germany, not least because these are key export markets for British companies. It is striking that the economic data for the same period for Britain has shown a continuing sharp contraction in recession.
“Once again, Gordon Brown’s claim that Britain was better prepared for recession, and would weather it better than other countries, has been proved untrue.”
Lib Dem Treasury spokesman Vince Cable said: “The signs of recovery in France and Germany are to be welcomed, particularly since they are both vital markets for British goods and services. The size of Britain’s banking sector and the extent to which the Government allowed debt and the housing bubble to grow left Britain particularly exposed. This was not the case in either France or Germany.”
Across the EU as a whole, economic output declined by 0.3 per cent.
Business Secretary Lord Mandelson tried to explain the disparity between the UK and leading European economies by saying: “Different economies will show different patterns of behaviour.”
He added: “Actually the recession and the economic contraction that happened in Germany was worse, it started earlier and it went to a lower depth than it did in Britain and I am very pleased and encouraged that Germany is making the recovery that it is.”
Lord Mandelson was criticised by the Treasury yesterday for apparently exaggerating the success of the Government’s economic policies.
He had claimed measures had saved “in excess of” 500,000 jobs, while officials pointed out that action by the Bank of England and the Government would help preserve “up to” that figure.
Unemployment is expected to continue to rise across Europe despite signs of economic recovery.
Separate data earlier this week showed unemployment in the UK rose by 220,000 in the three months to June to a total of 2,435,000, the highest figure for 15 years.
Leading economist David Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank of England monetary policy committee, said: “Unemployment is going to increase for many months to come. There is a huge amount more to do.”
Jorg Radeke, of the Centre for Economics and Business Research, said: “Celebrations may be short-lived in the face of rising unemployment, which has so far been modest given the scale of the economic contraction.”
David Buik, of BGC Partners, said Germany and France would recover more quickly because of their prowess in exporting, contrasting with the UK’s emphasis on services and banking.
Bank of England Governor Mervyn King warned earlier this week that the timing of economic recovery in Britain remained highly uncertain.
Friday August 14 2009 byMacer Hall
Have your say(9)BRITAIN’S worst recession for more than half a century is over, City experts predicted last night.
In a welcome blast of optimism, two senior economists said that the country has pulled out of the slump and economic growth has returned.
Shares soared in the City yesterday following a rash of positive financial data.
France and Germany officially emerged from recession in the spring, statistics confirmed, and the positive news from Europe helped the FTSE rise 38.7 points to 4755.46. At one stage it hit 4780 – a new high for the year.
Experts insist Britain is closely following the leading European economies into brighter times. Jim O’Neill, chief economist at investment bank Goldman Sachs, believes growth returned to the UK economy in June.
He said: “It is clear, given what we have seen from Germany and France, that things have improved much more quickly than people expect. I would say the UK is out of recession this quarter.”
Neville Hill, an economist with Credit Suisse, said: “Our view is that the UK is out of recession now and will post positive growth in the second half of the year.”
Analysts urged caution, however. They said there was still a great deal of uncertainty in the global economy and unemployment in the UK would continue to rise over the coming months while the recovery takes time to spread to all sectors of the economy. Official data yesterday showed that both the French and German economies grew by 0.3 per cent between April and June.
British national income continued to shrink by 0.8 per cent over the same period, although the performance was an improvement on the 2.5 per cent contraction in the previous three months.
SEARCH WORLD NEWS for:The recovery in Germany and France will be a welcome boost for hard-pressed British exporters. A Treasury spokesman said: “This is obviously encouraging news for UK manufacturers.”
Exporters will also be boosted by a weaker pound, which makes British goods cheaper for foreigners to buy.
Politicians on all sides welcomed the signs of recovery. But ministers were last night under pressure to explain why Britain’s recovery was lagging behind France and Germany’s.
Tory leader David Cameron said: “These figures completely explode what Gordon Brown has been saying about how well prepared we were for the downturn. While France and Germany are starting growing, Britain is still shrinking. Gordon Brown hasn’t got it right, he’s got it wrong.”
Shadow Chancellor George Osborne said: “It is great news that we are beginning to see some signs of recovery in France and Germany, not least because these are key export markets for British companies. It is striking that the economic data for the same period for Britain has shown a continuing sharp contraction in recession.
“Once again, Gordon Brown’s claim that Britain was better prepared for recession, and would weather it better than other countries, has been proved untrue.”
Lib Dem Treasury spokesman Vince Cable said: “The signs of recovery in France and Germany are to be welcomed, particularly since they are both vital markets for British goods and services. The size of Britain’s banking sector and the extent to which the Government allowed debt and the housing bubble to grow left Britain particularly exposed. This was not the case in either France or Germany.”
Across the EU as a whole, economic output declined by 0.3 per cent.
Business Secretary Lord Mandelson tried to explain the disparity between the UK and leading European economies by saying: “Different economies will show different patterns of behaviour.”
He added: “Actually the recession and the economic contraction that happened in Germany was worse, it started earlier and it went to a lower depth than it did in Britain and I am very pleased and encouraged that Germany is making the recovery that it is.”
Lord Mandelson was criticised by the Treasury yesterday for apparently exaggerating the success of the Government’s economic policies.
He had claimed measures had saved “in excess of” 500,000 jobs, while officials pointed out that action by the Bank of England and the Government would help preserve “up to” that figure.
Unemployment is expected to continue to rise across Europe despite signs of economic recovery.
Separate data earlier this week showed unemployment in the UK rose by 220,000 in the three months to June to a total of 2,435,000, the highest figure for 15 years.
Leading economist David Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank of England monetary policy committee, said: “Unemployment is going to increase for many months to come. There is a huge amount more to do.”
Jorg Radeke, of the Centre for Economics and Business Research, said: “Celebrations may be short-lived in the face of rising unemployment, which has so far been modest given the scale of the economic contraction.”
David Buik, of BGC Partners, said Germany and France would recover more quickly because of their prowess in exporting, contrasting with the UK’s emphasis on services and banking.
Bank of England Governor Mervyn King warned earlier this week that the timing of economic recovery in Britain remained highly uncertain.
I came in to this world with nothing and I've still got most of it left. :rolleyes:
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Comments
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And yesterdays offering was;
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/120261/Recovery-on-way-but-it-will-be-slow-says-BankI came in to this world with nothing and I've still got most of it left. :rolleyes:0 -
bo_drinker wrote: »And yesterdays offering was;
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/120261/Recovery-on-way-but-it-will-be-slow-says-Bank
They can't even get the pic of Mervyn King correct. That is E.George.0 -
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LOL @ "City experts"! Typical Daily Express story. Tomorrow it will be "House Price Crash Over", a few days later, "Houses to fall by another 20%"0
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I spotted the headline on the stand in Asda, I think the tourettes kicked in. :rotfl:I came in to this world with nothing and I've still got most of it left. :rolleyes:0
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This recession may be over.
But theres another one waiting just around the corner.0 -
How can it be "BRITAIN’S worst recession for more than half a century"? It's only been going on for, what is it, 9 months?0
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My online experience fell off a cliff... I am crossing my fingers it's because it's August, but I've seen a 30% drop in earnings over the last two weeks. It's been a drip, drip, drip downwards for months ... now I can't believe the low sums over the past two weeks. Hoping it's not me, but due to holidays ... if I've lost my magic gift I'll cry.
In fact, tonight I am staying up all night to write a book and publish it online ... I was up all night the other night too, just tweaking all the time... adding and tweaking.. with my fingers crossed.0
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